2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

[Philsmania]

Yes, it's too early. My guess is there is no way they sell.

Therein lies the bad part about this extra wild card. Many teams which probably should throw in the towel on that season won't because there is a chance that they can get hot and make the Postseason where anything can happen.

[zambonir]

Yup. Only Oakland and Kansas City are really out of it, and know it. It also makes it a little harder to be buyers.

That said, the wild card races last year really weren't that large. By July 31 it was pretty clear which four teams were fighting for three spots, and there were no other teams in the NL even over .500.

In the AL there were six non-division leaders at .500 or better but Baltimore wasn't really contending and Cleveland and Chicago were really only chasing the division (at the time the Twins were in first place).

For better or worse, the Phillies aren't really in a position to aggressively sell. I would not want them to trade Nola and Kimbrel if they were somewhere between .475 and .525 and less than five games out. I just wouldn't be big buyers either. Last year on July 31 they were .539 and actually in the 6th spot.

[Philsmania]

Yup. Only Oakland and Kansas City are really out of it, and know it. It also makes it a little harder to be buyers.

And, not to mention, the Athletics don't have anything really worth buying. The Royals at least have Greinke who can be a fifth starter fr someone at this point in his career.

[zambonir]

Heck they've got a 1B we could use right now!

(Seriously, if there is actually competition for him his salary is low enough that the Phillies could probably do a waiver trade. Give something up if the A's take on some of the $).

[bkeich]

I wonder if part of the struggles at the plate comes from the other teams being more prepared for the defending World Series champions - pitchers watching more video and having better/more extensive game plans against our hitters, who also haven't adjusted.

Dont read this Zambonir.

I think his wife played some games with the TV last October and he was watching the 1980 or 2008 World Series. I dont think we should tell him, I wouldnt want to know....

[zambonir]

hahaha yeah I stopped watching after Game 3

[andyb]

And they are calling up Drew Ellis. Have not seen the corresponding move yet:

Alec Bohm to IL. Phillies have called up Drew Ellis. More on the situation here: https://t.co/zgobDfqDOw

— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) June 1, 2023

[Austinfan]

Problem is he's an extreme free swinger who made zero progress since last season - sometimes a player is what he is and you can't change them.

Which is why I'm encouraged by the walk rates in JS and Clearwater, it feels like they're making a concerted effort to teach plate discipline early in players' careers, before they get set in their ways (and worse, have enough success to resist coaching until everything falls apart, at which time it's often too late to change ingrained habits).

[Austinfan]

Ellis is interesting, 27, lost a season to COVID, regressed last year but hot start this year.
Three outcome hitter with good power, hopefully he can hit better than Schwarber in a platoon role.

[andyb]

Ellis is definitely on a hot streak. 1000+ OPS. The bench also does not have much power. I could be persuaded to keep him over Harrison if he does well. He has almost the same defensive flexibility though I don't think he is that good at 2B.

He'll get to face McKenzie Gore on Saturday.

[BostonRoss]

Unless he produces in whatever time he has with the big club, I think Ellis will be waived off the 40 when Bohm returns. Unless there’s another injury before then.

[andyb]

Ellis actually has an option left so his 40-man spot is good until one of the 60-day IL guys need to come back.

The Phillies designated the new guy Cal Stevenson for assignment on this move. Probably better than 50-50 he is claimed by somebody else if he is waived.

[zambonir]

And they still have the Covey move. Also no real rush to activate Marchan or Hall I'd think. Let Marchan have the maximum rehab since it is functionally no different and Hall probably isn't coming up unless Clemens goes down.

Would be nice to move on from Harrison but I suppose he may actually play a little 3B now.

[andyb]

Would be nice to move on from Harrison but I suppose he may actually play a little 3B now.

Ellis is mainly a 3B by trade though. Both he and Clemens can play 3B. Clemens graded out there pretty well last year with Detroit though admittedly a small sample. Harrison is great in the clubhouse. Just not sure what he offers offensively as these 27-year-old AAAA players are at their prime age where they probably are a bit better than Harrison.

[zambonir]

Nobody ever seems that great in the clubhouse when they are losing!

It doesn't bother me that much that Harrison isn't playing well or is a marginal vet instead of a marginal young player, it just never really made sense with the surplus of guys who can play the same positions (especially with Sosa rarely getting to play SS) and with Stott not sitting that often for a RHB. And now because he's a valued vet on a decent salary they will keep him a month longer than they probably should.

I just assume it's more likely Ellis will play 1B and Harrison 3B once a week than that Ellis will ever play 3B instead of Sosa.

[Squire]

I have come around to the view that we are in the midst of a 5 years of thorough underachievement that was interrupted by 4-5 fun weeks last October.

[andyb]

That 2016 draft should have been delivering 10+ WAR a year for us cumulatively. We just got very little out of the prime draft years. Even Bohm is below what one would hope for in a top 3 pick. The Orioles hit on most of their high picks and are starting to win because of that.

[Austinfan]

Which is why they shook up the organization starting about 2 years ago, I think they were very disappointed in every aspect, scouting, LA, player development. It may take a couple more years to get it right, but a much better investment of Middleton's money than another overpriced 30+ FA who barely moves the needle.

[Philsmania]

I have come around to the view that we are in the midst of a 5 years of thorough underachievement that was interrupted by 4-5 fun weeks last October.

4-5 fun weeks which created a missimpression that the Phillies are one of Baseball's elite teams. They clearly are not. As I've mentioned before, the Phillies got help last fall in even making the Postseason when the lousy Marlins took 3 of 4 from the Brewers in the penultimate series of the regular season. If the Brewers took care of business and won 3 of 4, we would be bemoaning a ten years (and counting) Postseason drought.

Beginning to think that last October was more of 1993 situation--a standalone run at glory with a colorful group of guys--than we had hoped. We are not as bad off as we were back then but we are still dealing with the fallout from a failed rebuild. It has been suggested that 1993 was a double-edged sword. Yes, it provided one of the greatest seasons in Phillies history. But, had it not happened, Lee Thomas would have gotten canned and the Phillies would have embarked on another rebuild which would have had them turning the corner sooner than in 2001. After 1993, the Phillies doubled-down on patchworking from 1994-96 and similarly, after last October, the Phillies doubled-down on using free agency as a psuedo farm system.

[Philsmania]

The legacy of the 2016 draft was getting us Sosa (for Romero) and a couple of rentals (Syndergaard and Gibson, obtained for Moniak and Gowdy) who played roles in 2022's remarkable run.

The best thing about Almaraz when he was hired was that he was not Wolever. However, in the end, he just might have been worse even if Almaraz had Wolever beat in the professionalism department (no trying to nickel and dime draft picks or dirty tricks like the one that got Wolever fired when he ratted on those two guys to the NCAA)..