2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

[LegoDoom]

We discussed all this extensively (perhaps even repeatedly!) at the time of Rolen's Hall. I considered just putting the WOF news there but thought the thread was older than it was (original post almost two years old but we were back at it in February).

Hall of Fame Discussion 2022 and Beyond

Thanks for this. I can't argue against the winning seasons argument, but the natural grass and current trend in spending makes no sense considering the new stadium.

I was a season ticket holder for the Thome years, so I don't want to downplay his importance to the fans, but I'm not sure it had a big effect on the trajectory of the team in the years following.

Also, Rolen said he would come back to Philly, so the midwest thing is a pretty flimsy argument.

It's also fine for a player to think the team isn't serious despite some of these points. I assume most people have been negative towards their work environments at some point.

[Aquapong]

This team is mediocre at best. Two players we need to have play to their capabilities are having career worst years. I’m not sure about JT, but it feels like a career worst year as well. The starters have been unreliable at best. We keep hoping they will hit their stride, but they feel more lost than last year to me.

[fish]

Too early to point out they need to dump 10 million at the trade deadline to get back under the tax? No point in going over that if it doesn’t look like they have a shot at the playoffs when the time comes. Castellanos and his salary would probably be the easiest to move- and even then they’d have to pay some down to get anything back.

And yes, I realize I said the same thing last year.

[Philsmania]

Think ping pong balls!

Tankathon | 2024 MLB Draft Order & Lottery Simulator

[zambonir]

Yes, it's too early. My guess is there is no way they sell. But if they get to the point where they are thinking about avoiding the tax won't trading Nola and Kimbrel just accomplish that? (I'm all for trading Castellanos at any time though.)

[bkox]

In the multiple wild card era, June 1st is just too early to write off any team except the worst of the worst (A's Royals etc)

No one in the NL is running away so far. We are 3.5 back in the wild card. Would we be this pessimistic if it was 3.5 in the division? Winning the division didnt seem to matter much last year did it?

[Austinfan]

What makes me pessimistic is that they have a bunch of guys 30 or older playing down to their age, Castellanos (empty BA), Schwarber, Realmuto, Nola, Walker. They're chasing too many pitches and aren't making consistent contact. Sure they can turn it around, but what if some hitters really aren't that good anymore? $70M tied in in 3 players who are struggling at the plate is discouraging.

[bkox]

Well Schwarber, Castellanos and Realmuto were all worse at this point of the season last year

Thing about Schwarber... his OPS is within a couple points of Bohm and Stott. And within a couple points of where he was on May 31st 2022. The man is still on pace for 38 HRs.

And home runs is kinda where another of our problem lies. The only hitter on this team on pace for more than 18 this season is Schwarber. Bohm is 2nd on the team in HRs with 6. Phillies on pace to hit 60 less HRs this season versus last year

[fish]

I’m sure De La Cruz isn’t being considered to replace Bohm, but the youthful exuberance of a rookie catching lightning in a bottle would do a world of good in making me want to watch this team again.

[zambonir]

I wonder if part of the struggles at the plate comes from the other teams being more prepared for the defending World Series champions - pitchers watching more video and having better/more extensive game plans against our hitters, who also haven't adjusted.

Conversely, you do have to wonder why they haven't adjusted. It seems both they and Long know what the problem is. If they aren't going to change their aggressive approach, they need to have better pitch recognition.

I certainly see both sides. What if Turner is just going to have a bad season and JT has actually begun his decline or just has an off-year, where he is still a valuable catcher and respectable hitter, but not an offensive linchpin. Add in Bohm's fairly light bat (he hits like a 2B, basicalliy) and Hoskins' absence and that's a big part of the problem.

And Schwarber will probably be okay but with his poor defense probably won't give you more than 1 or 1.5 WAR overall this season.

The optimistic view: they were 15-13 in April with a much better, if not always perfectly run-producing offense, and much less pitching. There's still time for the offense to come back and win games like these last two. It also just seems like the Mets have our numbers, whereas the Braves rivalry is equal.

[Jazzhead]

This team is mediocre at best. Two players we need to have play to their capabilities are having career worst years. I’m not sure about JT, but it feels like a career worst year as well. The starters have been unreliable at best. We keep hoping they will hit their stride, but they feel more lost than last year to me.

Which suggests things could turn around quickly. There is every reason to believe that Schwarbs and Trea will regress to their not inconsiderable means, and JT as well. I think the bullpen is in reasonably good shape. I agree that the starters are unreliable, and represent IMO our weak link.

[andyb]

Schwarber has definitely been the victim of some bad luck with a really low BABIP, though it is pretty clear he probably is never going to be much more than a .200 hitter that takes his walks. Automated strike zone probably will help him since he has a good idea of the zone.

I do agree that teams may have figured out the Phillies to some degree. Being aggressive helped multiple players (Harper, Castellanos, Bohm, Realmuto, Sosa). Add in Turner and you have a lineup that might have become too aggressive except for Bryce who tends to do lots of damage when he is aggressive. Castellanos is back to closer to his career norm, though part of the improvement may be realizing he is a doubles hitter and not really a HR hitter (his big year was the juiced ball year).

The Phillies will have to adjust like all good hitters need to adjust when something is not working well. Aggression is fine. One just needs to do damage when being aggressive. That usually means zoning in on one pitch in one part of the strike zone. There is probably too much guess hitting now, perhaps because one has to guess to get around on a 98 mph fastball like Senga had.

[Austinfan]

Aggression is only fine when it's focused, attack your pitch in the K-zone with less than two strikes, but have the discipline not to swing at pitches you're going to hit .100 even if you make contact. And with 2 strikes, adjust your swing for contact.

Thing is, some young players have shown progress, Stott, Marsh, even Bohm to some extent, it's the veterans who may simply have ingrained habits that resist coaching. Harper is aggressive, but usually corrects himself. The others? Sosa may be hopeless, Castellanos simply doesn't have enough power to be worth his contract without a high OBP, JT goes hot and cold, but his lack of discipline may age him faster, Schwarber simply had a fluke year last year, and even if he rebounds, .220 hitters with a .450 SA who can't field are replacement players.

[zambonir]

Stott, Marsh, even Bohm to some extent, it's the veterans who may simply have ingrained habits that resist coaching. Harper is aggressive, but usually corrects himself. The others? Sosa may be hopeless

Sosa has fewer MLB ABs than Stott, Marsh and Bohm.

[David_Criss]

I don't think any of us realized how much Hoskins would be missed. And now if Bohm is out for a while......I just don't know. Had the multi millionaire club (Schwarber and Turner; Nola and Walker) been playing well, I'd say trade some assets to upgrade, but now.....I just don't know.

[zambonir]

This story seems to leave out the most obvious, if still far-fetched, option: Nick Castellanos.

I think I'd go get Aguilar if he clears.

If Alec Bohm heads to injured list, how will Phillies replace him at first base?

Two of the standout performers at Triple-A Lehigh Valley — Jake Cave and Símon Muzziotti bat left-handed and do not play first base. First baseman Darick Hall, a lefty hitter, began a minor-league rehab assignment this week and needs time. Dombrowski identified three right-handed hitters at Triple A as potential options — Weston Wilson, Drew Ellis and Jim Haley.

The only player on the 26-man roster who has played more than an inning of first base is catcher J.T. Realmuto. Dalton Guthrie, a right-handed bench player, has never tried it. “Me?” Guthrie said, with a hearty laugh. “No.”

Two right-handed-hitting first basemen were recently designated for assignment. Luke Voit hit .221/.284/.265 in 74 plate appearances with Milwaukee while managing a meager .212 OPS versus lefties. Jesús Aguilar was cast aside by the A’s, the worst team in modern baseball history, after batting .221/.281/.385 for them. Aguilar was far more effective when facing lefties; he posted an .882 OPS.

Aguilar is making $3 million this season. The Phillies would be on the hook for about $2 million if they claimed him on waivers. (They could also sign him for a prorated amount of the big-league minimum — $720,000 — if he clears waivers and becomes a free agent.)

[andyb]

I'd let Aguillar clear waivers and then make a decision. Agree also with Castellanos. That always made sense though I don't think they have tried it much.

If Stubbs catches today then JT should get a start there. When we had Hoskins it never made sense to get JT 1B starts, but a platoon with Hall/Clemens at 1B could be a good idea if Bohm is out for any stretch. JT's workload has been harsh so far.

[zambonir]

Agree about Stubbs but managers seem to be allergic to burning that second catcher. And they probably want JT to just take a day off (which he clearly needs!)

Also surely Harrison could play 1B?

[andyb]

You are not burning the catcher if JT is in the lineup at 1B.

JT will still need the occasional rest day, but not as often if he plays twice a week at 1B. They could even put Marchan in Bohm's spot when his rehab is done. JT catching 110 games might be better for this team than the 130+ pace he was on. Maybe his legs would have been fresher on that SB attempt.....

[zambonir]

I hear you but they just seem really reluctant to ever do it, and while you're not burning the catcher immediately, if something does happen, you lack a back-up catcher the rest of the game. Which seems like a silly eventuality to worry about, but the majority of managers seem to, just as they don't like to have only two guys who can play SS for real.

He only DHed twice last year and one of those was the meaningless final game (presumably so he could just get some swings, and I believe they also had three catchers then).

I would definitely consider bringing Marchan up if Bohm's absence is long.

Of course Stubbs can probably play 1B himself but he's not repeating last year's magic at the plate either.