2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

Austinfan 2023-06-02 05:59:07 UTC #681

The electronic strike zone will eliminate framing, which is good for baseball, though not for JT, but his ability to control base runners will have more value with the changes in the game.

Dirk41 2023-06-02 11:32:41 UTC #682

I understand that Turner has been having a down year, but he is still one of the 10 best players in the game and those guys typically figure it out. Really hope he doesn't become the subject of more of these rants. I love watching him play

gmwannabe 2023-06-02 12:18:04 UTC #683

Typical NY media person. why would he be cutting up Turner. it's always easy to jump on someone when he/she are down. his play is certainly not happening because he is not trying. Just a very bad start. he is older and might not be the player he was before. it happens. player's get their contracts for what they have previously done ( and hopefully for what they do in the future). not a good start and I think the hangover will last the whole year. last year was magical and will be tough to repeat. the Hoskins injury really threw a wrench into the season. it's tough to replace the 30-35 homers and what he means in the clubhouse. he probably is still with the team but just not the same. We all have great memories of what happened. I am at the same point as I was last year. will still watch occasionally, but can't seem to keep watching this type of baseball too much. my suggestion, even if it seems crazy, is to put the Schwarbs back in the lead off position and build from there. Stott is doing pretty good in the lead off but they aren't winning. Build the line up from Schwarber on down. it really can't be much worse.
gm

Austinfan 2023-06-02 13:19:42 UTC #684

I think if they're 10 games under .500 at the All Star break, sell, sell, sell.

They may need to take a step back, shed some salary if possible, get younger b/c you're still will have a solid core, but you can't pay $20+M for replacement level players.

Schwarber and Castellanos are barely above replacement b/c their fielding is so bad they have to be .850+ OPS to have real value. Same with Hoskins at 1B. Everything went right last year down the stretch, but depending on career offensive seasons is probably not a viable strategy.

Castellanos averaged about 2.5 WAR in his peak years, what did they expect in his 30s?
Schwarber about 2.2 WAR
JT is off relative to last season, but I expect a little bounce back, but at 32, his offense will probably gradually decline and those 6 WAR seasons will be 3-4 WAR seasons, and less if they go to electronic strikes.

Bohm will be 27 in August, I'm afraid this is it, maybe one or two 2 WAR seasons
Sosa RC+ 104, 82, 82, at 27 running out of time to make any sort of jump
Stott is 25, still adjusting to 2B so expect defensive improvement, his hit tool is a middle IF profile, he's still learning on the job but probably better suited to the #2 slot, but at least there's some upside left.

Turner is better than he looks, I doubt he'll ever had a stretch like his last three years, but I also doubt he's a RC+ 72 player - if he just bounces back to RC+ 100 he's a 4 WAR player until his defense declines.

Clemons is at least worth a shot, his numbers so far are similar to what he put up in AAA last year, he's part of a group of players (Dunn, Ellis, Podkul, Roberts) the Phillies have picked up who lost a lot of PA to COVID and being bounced around - good long shot bets on 25-26 year olds having the light go on with a full season of AA/AAA play.

Which also brings up Song, if the team continues to struggle, they should find a spot for him to keep his rights. The last spot in the pen is fine for a team ten games under .500.

Ortiz is the most intriguing prospect in the system, after years of 30+% K rates, he's suddenly posting a 15.0%/20.6% BB/K ratio and his ISO is way up - SSS of 107 PA but he's only 24, maybe the light has gone on.

Muzzioti 204 PA, 7.4%/11.8%, BABIP .398, ISO .128, that .358 BA might be inflated, but still impressive.

Keep an eye on Matt Kroon, less than a 1000 PA due to injuries and COVID at 26, having a breakout season at Reading.
Until the organization fills out, they need some "older prospects" to emerge to add cheap depth and not rush the "real" prospects like Rojas, De La Cruz and Wilson.

Dirk41 2023-06-02 13:27:47 UTC #685

Just watching him move he is still maybe the fastest player in baseball. I totally trust him to figure it out

VoteForKalas 2023-06-02 13:30:21 UTC #686

The one that turned me around on this was Burrell.

I used to believe in the same tough love standard for everyone; they make a lot of money and thus deserve to be called out if they play poorly.

I still believe accountability is important, but the public part of it has changed since I saw what Burrell went through with Bowa et al. and how clearly it was not an effort or accountability thing, but a way for the local media to score points with the fans that was dishonest and unhealthy for the player and team.

Turner is in a deep slump; they happen to every player and he will need to find his way out, but to slag him constantly in public does nothing to help.

zambonir 2023-06-02 14:49:09 UTC #687

He's a Philly media person. WIP. So, dog bites man really.

phillychuck 2023-06-02 14:59:06 UTC #688

Radio people say all sorts of outlandish things and exaggerate their takes to boost visibility and listenership. Most of what they say isn't worth a piece of dog poop.

David_Criss 2023-06-02 15:35:29 UTC #689

This, 100 times yes. Totally agree, but with the expanded playoff schedule and last year's ability to get in through the back door I am fearful we may see, what little prospects we have, shipped off.

The problem is they can't find a guy to be the fifth starter, much less fill in for a Nola or Wheeler or Walker. Muzziotti seems ready. He, Pache and Marsh would be a great defensive outfield........And it isn't like they will hit worse than Schwarber.

Is it to early to start the 2023 trade prediction and dream thread????

zambonir 2023-06-02 16:05:54 UTC #690

It is but it won't be in a month.

I don't think they will pillage the farm just to chase another wild card (nor did they do so last year). I also don't think they are going to collapse hard enough for Nola to get dealt.

But there's really no way to close the win-now window, which would probably mean trading from that CF depth - and yes, also one of the three SP prospects - to improve the '24-'25 teams, while also possibly shedding one of Schwarber or Castellanos (and possibly needing a new 3B).

The apocalyptic take: none of it works, Thomson loses his job next mid-season through no fault of his own, and Dombrowski's tenure here is about the same as it was in Boston (though I'm at least optimistic about the organization-wide changes, if only because there was nowhere to go but up).

The "let's do it again and hope it works this time" scenario: they sign one of the better available pitchers to replace Nola (if not Nola himself) and also throw $20 million at Matt Chapman or an OF bat that can actually field.

The interesting question raised previously - if they don't totally white flag, would they still try to get under the tax?

David_Criss 2023-06-02 17:14:24 UTC #691

gmwannabe 2023-06-02 18:35:24 UTC #692

thanks Zamby. I listen to WIP once and a while and don't know of him. Again, it is pretty easy to kick a person when they are down. that radio kid is a Putz.
gm

andyb 2023-06-02 18:55:19 UTC #693

Pache at Jersey Shore tonight. Hall at Lehigh Valley. Drew Ellis should probably not unpack too much.

zambonir 2023-06-02 19:34:48 UTC #694

Ellis at 3B Clemens at 1B tonight. If Hall is really ready he should technically take Clemens' spot.

BaseballCat 2023-06-02 19:36:38 UTC #695

Schwarber leading off tonight. You got your wish. Lets make it magical

bkox 2023-06-02 19:42:42 UTC #696

Except Clemens has been one of our best performers. .333/.404/.476/.881 slash line for the month of May . But the .464 BAbip may mean its a mirage.

Austinfan 2023-06-02 19:53:21 UTC #697

Clemons is also a year younger than Hall and can play 3B as well as 1B.
So Hall will have to show he's ready to go on a HR streak to get his job back.
I see a trade for a RP prospect.

zambonir 2023-06-02 20:02:52 UTC #698

Thus, "technically." The point is not that Clemens should be replaced by Hall, just that Hall can't really take Ellis's spot. Even if they did make noise about letting him face LHP this year in Hoskins' absence.

Probably they just leave Hall in AAA. And when Harper is ready to play 1B Cave would also be more useful. Ellis presumably isn't going to last very long but he'll last as long as Bohm is out. And Pache will just take Guthrie's spot back.

andyb 2023-06-02 20:08:33 UTC #699

None of these solutions (Harrison, Ellis, Clemens, Hall, Pache) is that good. None could bring much in trades. At the moment they are just treading water giving everyone a chance to see if they can find a hot streak.

Hard to know what the eventual roster looks like because that depends on injuries and whether they decide Harper SHOULD play 1B (still unclear even if it is a goal to try).

zambonir 2023-06-02 20:19:19 UTC #700

I assume Harper is working out at 1B almost every day. My impression is their first choice would be to just send him directly to RF. That if he's cleared to throw as a 1B on July 15 he might be cleared to throw as an OF in another 2-4 weeks, so why even mess with the intermediate step? But if he's not going to be able to play RF all season, they went to get him at 1B. And, low-key, they (and he) surely realize 1B has to be on the table going forward too.

And yeah no one is getting traded for another six weeks because there's nothing you can acquire in trade right now that would help the major league team. If someone gets traded because the 40-man spot is needed, it will probably be after DFA.

They are lucky Clemens has been decent. He and Bohm might even make a perfectly good 3B platoon but Sosa and Bohm were also perfectly okay. The line-up hole is still Hoskins-sized no matter how you try to do it.