2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

[allentown]

Which is why he should be in the OF. If he is able to throw at some point, he should at least be in LF. There is also the need to make throws from 1B, including first-to-third. There are also collisions which occur at 1B. Until he is able to really throw, he needs to DH. When he is able to move off DH, it should be to the OF. He is a very good athlete, which is why he shouldn't be at 1B. It will be learning a completely knew position: different glove, scooping and stretching for bad throws, tag plays, holding runners, fielding with a runner bearing down the line at you, chasing a lot of pops to the railing in front of stands and dugout, fielding bunts. Probably not at all a quick transition to be any sort of good or even adequate.

[bkeich]

Odd stat, kinda following AF's point of some guys having abnormally low BB rates:

Trea Turner is 1st in MLB in at bats with 99.
Bryson Stott is 2nd with 97.

[andyb]

Yes he should definitely be in the outfield. But there could be a period of time when the doctors say the throws at 1B are better for him than the throws from either OF spot. Plus, there is a need with Hoskins and Hall out. If Hall comes back that need may mostly disappear.

Options are never a bad thing too. Limiting Bryce to DH (which will happen the first month or two regardless) limits the team to some degree. They can't DH Bohm for instance. They can't DH Schwarber and Castellanos. They can't DH JT. I want the option to do all of that. If the only position Bryce can play is 1B for a month or two then that helps the team even if he does it only occasionally. And there is no reason he can't do it with a little practice and his innate athleticism.

As for the future, we definitely want him in the OF. That was the whole premise around getting Schwarber and Castellanos to alternate at DH and that logic has not changed. But we don't have a 1B. Bohm is a better player if he can play 3B in the lineup than 1B. We still don't really know if Hall can hit well enough to even do the long side of a platoon job (though he'll get every chance if healthy).

I don't think Bryce ends up playing more than 10-20 games at 1B this year, but if he does it probably will help the team. And he is such a baseball lifer and student of the game that I have zero doubt that he will be adequate at the least important position defensively.

[David_Criss]

When Suarez returns who goes to the pen? - him, Strahm or Falter? Or do they go with a six-man rotation?

[andyb]

Strahm. There is no indication that he can handle a starter's workload and Falter has been decent.

Also, one can't do a 6-man rotation with a pen consisted largely of 1-inning pitchers. The math on innings just does not work.

[zambonir]

The real question is, will Painter be the rotation upgrade or will they end up on the trade market? Some combo of Painter and Falter potentially fine given you only need four starters in October too. But not hard to see them needing another arm, even if it's just depth (like last year) rather than a #3 type.

Of course there's also the scenario where they make a big deal for a controllable pitcher who also then slots in next year w/o Nola.

[andyb]

Painter as the 2-3 inning relief weapon in the last 2 months has some appeal. A little David Price for Tampa reprise? Getting him earlier than September would be ideal of course in any situation.

[zambonir]

yeah that is the nice thing at this point, what Painter might be capable of is also what they might need. And they could still trade for a starter upgrade over Falter (or Sanchez) for August and September if they need to.

[Austinfan]

It's real early for this, for one thing, Abel may well be ahead of Painter by July.

[andyb]

Abel might be healthier than Painter. Doubt he will be better though. Stuff is just less good across the board even if it is very good.

[Austinfan]

When we're talking very young players, the hardest thing to project is the growth curve.
Some players mature earlier, then flatline, others steadily progress, some emerge quickly then regress.
Genetics and work ethic probably play a big part, 17-18 year olds with recent growth spurts may take a few years to refine their body control.
Which is why teams are more comfortable drafting 22 year old juniors. What you see is closer to what you get.

[Callison]

Has Stott arrived? Has he become a ML hitter or will he fade away? Be nice to have a real leadoff guy... with some speed.

[bkeich]

He certainly has been hitting, let's hope.

I suspect he has an unsustainable BABIP, but he is certainly doing well so far. Honestly, he really just needs a .720 or so OPS to hold on to his starting spot.

[andyb]

Honestly, he really just needs a .720 or so OPS to hold on to his starting spot.

That is probably closer to what he is, though he could be a high OBP version of that (280/340/380?). Hopefully he is better than that of course. He probably is a really good fit for leadoff in this lineup making it pretty long and deep if he can sustain the OBP. Harper probably slots in at 3rd behind Turner. No ideal #4 hitter but then Schwarber might be the most dangerous #5 hitter with Castellanos and Bohm/Realmuto slotted around him in some way.

[phillychuck]

I'd be happier if 3 of his singles were walks. A 3% walk rate is not sustainable in terms of pairing it with a high BA. I con't find any hitter who was successful in the long term with that low a walk rate and a high BA (and low-average power).

[andyb]

But it is all small sample size and he has shown a higher walk rate in the past. What is new is the bat control in the zone that he is showing. He does not really have the power to have a really high walk rate with this approach, but 6%-8% is likely his level given past performances.

[Austinfan]

Richie Ashburn had a high walk rate. You don't need power to have a high walk rate, plate discipline and the ability to foul off strikes you can't handle when you have two strikes on you. Eventually the pitcher will either serve a lollipop or throw ball 4.

[andyb]

Everybody is not a hall of famer. Everybody is different. There just is not one solution for every single player.

[zambonir]

And it's also not 1950.

Stott may yet hit more home runs than Richie did his entire career by the end of this season (and certainly next).

[LoneStarPhan]

Got me thinking about home runs hit by Richie forcing me to look it up. Ashburn hit 29 career home runs including a career-high 7 in his final season with the Mets. My guess is that Stott doesn't get to 29 by the end of this season but will exceed that number sometime next season.