2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

[andyb]

When did I ever claim Hoskins was a good athlete?

Well there is this gem from April of 2018:

"Hoskins reminds me of a more athletic version of the Bull with better plate discipline, but the same short, powerful swing rocketing balls all over the park. Rhys runs better than advertised and may develop into a decent LF, the Bull, well, Garry Maddox basically covered for him. Hopefully Rhys can avoid the knee problems that did Luzinski in"

You have actually posted some notion of Hoskins being more athletic than advertised dozens of times. The more recent ones relate to him potentially being a good defensive 1B.

You also continue to post (mostly about non-white athletes) that they are undisciplined. Like walk rate and their zone swing percentages are the only thing to evaluate. You posted some version of this about Jimmy Rollins being undisciplined very often. It is more about stereotypes and learning to avoid bad ones, but it is also as much about not understanding that there are many paths to offense. Bryce Harper last year was 39.9% because he decided to be more aggressive. And for the most part it worked. There are many paths to offense and your narrative is just so simplistic and tired.

Sosa has a 900+ OPS now. Will he need to adapt if they stop throwing him strikes? Of course. But don't criticize him now BECAUSE IT IS WORKING.

And Harper was faster than Bohm last year but backing things up - athleticism is much more than speed. Agility. Strength. Coordination. Quickness. Bryce even at age 30 when healthy is just better than Bohm at all these things still. Bohm probably has arm strength now but that is a minor part of athleticism. Bohm is what he is. A very good hitter with some athletic limitations that hurt him in other parts of the game (though he works hard at his craft). He just is not an above average athlete. It is a losing argument with zero evidence (against Harper who was and for the most part still is a great athlete.

[bkox]

Hopefully Rhys can avoid the knee problems that did Luzinski in"

Sadly that didnt happen..

[Aquapong]

I’m not sure there’s a perfect defensive alignment for this team. But we certainly need Harper’s bat. It’s a sure thing that he’ll DH when he gets back if he can’t play the field somewhere.

In other news…Bellatti to the DL for right triceps tendinitis.

[bkox]

Ranger Suárez on how close he feels to returning: “I feel very close. I feel ready. We’ll see what they say.”

Suárez threw to Pache and Harper again today.

— Alex Coffey ( @byalexcoffey ) April 22, 2023

Thomson said that Ranger Suárez will probably need three or four rehab outings to build up before returning to the Phillies. They'd like to get him to around 90 pitches.

— Alex Coffey ( @byalexcoffey ) April 22, 2023

[Austinfan]

A more athletic version of the Bull? Got to try harder than that.
Bull was a great hitter, but pretty much a statue in LF.

Sosa is a SSS right now, Long has worked hard with him, but if he doesn't get more disciplined, pitchers will feed him a steady diet of pitches outside the zone. You can see that with Castellanos, he gets a steady diet of sliders and breaking balls low and away, when he spits on them, he gets pitches he can handle, when he chases them, he's an easy out.

Mike Schmidt got to the HOF by working counts for one or two pitches he had a good shot at hitting, he accepted a high K rate and a high BB rate b/c he knew chasing pitches he couldn't hit was an exercise in futility. Same with Thome.

[andyb]

You argued multiple times that Hoskins was a good enough athlete to play LF. You have argued multiple times that he is a good enough athlete to be a good defensive 1B.

Sometimes just admit you are wrong and move on.

June of 2018: "Hoskins is actually starting to look comfortable in LF, he's a pretty decent athlete, and started the season hot, his hitting problems have nothing to do with the position change, but getting overeager and swinging too hard."

September 2018: "If Hoskins lacks the instincts for LF (he's a good enough athlete to make it work, not Golden Glove work, but average defensively)"

July 2018: "Actually, Hoskins has improved as a LF, nice catch the other night. His problem is more inexperience than lack of athleticism"

There are more. And lots over the last 3 years on Bohm.

Then Hoskins posted some of the worst defensive stats in major league history. As Bohm has been consistently bad at 3B. Bohm is more athletic than Hoskins but it is just a low, low bar. And you arguing this to say the better athlete (Harper) can't play 1B even adequately.

The job of this team right now is to put the best team on the field. Sometimes that might involve Harper at 1B. Why the heck do people like Dombrowski and Thomson think this is a good idea to try? Why pray tell me?

[phillychuck]

Aggressive is just a nice way to say undisciplined.
There's a difference between attacking balls in the K-zone and chasing balls outside the K-zone.

O-swing
Sosa 44.8% (41.2% career)
Turner 41.0% (30.9%)
Stott 38.1% (32.5%)
Realmuto 35.9% (33.0%)
Castellanos 34.8% (37.8%)
Harrison 33.8% (34.5%)
Bohm 33.2% (33.0%)
Marsh 28.3% (32.2%)
Schwarber 27.4% (26.3%)
Caves 26.3% (32.4%)

To put this in context, the MLB average O-swing % is very close to 30%. We are being too aggressive out of the zone, Stott, Turner, and Sosa, especially. Turner and Stott are high for their career norms.

[andyb]

We are being too aggressive out of the zone, Stott, Turner, and Sosa, especially. Turner and Stott are high for their career norms.

But the 3 highest players on that list have been 3 of our best performers. Yes we are relatively aggressive, but we are also a low power team now outside of Schwarber so maybe we need some of that aggressiveness.

There is a balance to achieve and this is all small sample size. But it is not exactly bad if it is working.

[phillychuck]

Andy, I generally agree with the "if it ain't broke don't fix it" approach, but it is actually especially important for low-power teams to be patient. You score runs with SLG and OBP; if we're not getting SLG we need to make that up with OBP. Some of this, especially Turner and probably Stott, will normalize with a larger sample. Stott is young enough that his fluctuations may be higher than most other players.

[Austinfan]

Have you seen Schwarber play LF? Hoskins before his knees starting going was potentially better, which isn't the same as "good."
One good thing this season is Marsh seems to have improved his jump on the ball, while Caves is decent, anytime he's flanked by Schwarber and Castallenos, Marsh needs to channel his inner Maddox.

Hopefully, down the road we'll see Marsh - Rojas - Muzzioti - De La Cruz and Phillies pitchers can stop praying.

Harper may be able to be an adequate 1B next year, but he's just taking reps now, never played the position before, never played the IF before - no, he's not some miracle player who'll pick up the necessary skills through osmosis. Just fielding ground balls and reading the ball off the bat (things come at you much faster) takes time, not to mention handling errant throws and throws across the diamond.

[allentown]

Thomson said that Ranger Suárez will probably need three or four rehab outings to build up before returning to the Phillies. They'd like to get him to around 90 pitches.

I doubt that's the real reason and assume he needs the time to fully recover. If they really won't bring him back until he can throw 90 pitches in a game, then I think the team is being very foolish. They badly need SP. Nola just reached 94 pitches. Suarez is hardly going to be alone in the rotation in not being able to throw 90.

[zambonir]

But do they really need SP badly? They have fallen short in that department as much
because of Nola and Wheeler, and if the plan is to return Strahm to the bullpen rather than demoting Falter, that's not necessarily a net gain either. In any case it's really just a mattter of giving Ranger three rehab starts rather than two. I seriously doubt he gets four. Not sure there's really a difference between time to recover and time to build up to 90 pitches. They probably want to limit his pitch counts in the first two starts as part of the recovery. If he actually hits 90 in his last rehab start that will mean he pitched well and felt good.

You score runs with SLG and OBP; if we're not getting SLG we need to make that up with OBP.

But they are 4th in the league in SLG. And 5th in OPS. 7th in OBP. If they ever start walking (along with more home runs) they should end up being first in all those categories.

Timely hitting (and home run power rather than doubles power) is what's been lacking really. But when the home run power starts to show up (which it's starting to) the walks are probably going to follow.

[andyb]

Hoskins was horrible in the outfield. Awful. Worst in the league. Hoskins was never potentially better. At least young Schwarber could throw. Neither could run.

Just admit you were wrong and move on. Sometimes we all say hopeful things that end up wrong.

[andyb]

OBP is important but we are getting pretty good OBP because we hit for a high average with lots of doubles too. Generally good team speed when guys like Sosa are playing too. These all matter. That does not mean we should not strive to hit good pitches. We do (and should).

Sosa in particular is an aggressive but that is working for him. This is likely his plan going up to the plate now. He is kind of doing what he did in 2021 but with more power. Until that approach stops working I would not change it. And calling him undisciplined is just a stereotype being thrown at him by a poster that thinks there is only one approach to hitting. We have so many injuries that we don't have to grapple with whether Sosa is better than Bohm, but if we had everyone including Hoskins healthy we might have had to ask that question (defense and offense combined). Bohm has never had even a 1 WAR year. Sosa had 3.1 WAR in 2/3 of a season in 2021 and he has more power now. He won't get quite the defensive credit playing 3B, but he could be a 3-4 WAR player playing 130 games easily (0.5 WAR so far versus 0.2 for Bohm).

[Austinfan]

Being "aggressive" is a kind way to put it, Juan Samuel is my poster child, looked like a future star as a rookie, but the league noted his lack of discipline and exploited it.

Not every hitter is going to be a Schmidt or Thome, but few are Manny Sanguillen either.
It's not like I expect Sosa to walk 100 times a year, but if a hitter doesn't refrain from swinging at pitches he has a low probability of hitting with a high exit velo, that's all he's gonna see, in today's MLB, a bad tendency is quickly noted and exploited.

It has nothing to do with stereotypes, if Turner doesn't get more disciplined, that contract is going to look really bad at 35 when his foot speed and bat speed decline. Plate discipline is simply about tilting the odds in your favor, refrain from swinging at pitches you have a low probability of hitting, and you get into more batter friendly counts which raise your odds of being successful at the plate. There's a balance, be too passive and pitchers will jump ahead - the key is attack pitches in your sweet zone but not those out of the K-zone.

Hoskins fell apart early, he wasn't that bad athletically his first couple years, but went steadily downhill. It happens.
The weirder player is Harper, a plus athlete who's been a minus fielder his entire career.

[andyb]

Hoskins fell apart early, he wasn't that bad athletically his first couple years, but went steadily downhill. It happens.

2018 sprint speed of 26.3. 2022 all the way down to 25.9. Just admit you were wrong. He was always a below average athlete. So is Darick Hall BTW but at least Hall can throw (another thing Hoskins really can't do well).

[zambonir]

Marte back up for Sanchez who will remain on starter schedule (I guess the Bellatti injury erases the recall window). So we probably see a bit of him and Ortiz, with Nick Nelson up next.

[allentown]

Very seldom are first basemen among the top athletes on a team. Not often good athletes. Ditto for leftfielders.

[Callison]

Castellanos and Bohm both deciding to join the team. Hey, by the end of the season this team could be exciting! Sure has been a frustrating start. I can watch today if I will just subscribe to Peacock!

[andyb]

Very seldom are first basemen among the top athletes on a team. Not often good athletes. Ditto for leftfielders

But Bryce Harper IS a great athlete which was the whole point of the discussion....