2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion Part 2

bkox 2023-09-19 16:26:22 UTC #563

Can we sign him for just the even numbered years?

Austinfan 2023-09-19 18:04:04 UTC #564

I think we have our CF for the next decade, he's developed so fast as a fielder that you can talk about him in the same breath with Garry "oceans cover 2/3 of the planet and Maddox the other third" Maddox.Anything over .700 OPS and we're talking allstar caliber player (3-4+ WAR)

That leaves Marsh, Muzzioti and Pache next year, but I'm not sure Crawford is more than two years away the way he progressed at 19, with his frame, he should develop decent power over the next 2-3 years.

zambonir 2023-09-19 18:07:53 UTC #565

This was Charlie O'Connor's column (he appears to be default Phillies writer until they get that side of the site in order).

zambonir 2023-09-19 18:14:04 UTC #566

I think both Pache and Muzziotti will end up elsewhere if Rojas really does become the CF. It also all still depends on the Harper-Castellanos-Schwarber 1B puzzle.

But as things currently stand, if no one leaves and Harper doesn't stay at first, Castellanos would be end up being the extra OF RHB.

If Harper does stay at first (or if they trade Castellanos) they still probably want an offense-first RHB to spell Marsh and Harper at the corners.

I guess that does still leave an opportunity for Muzziotti and Cave to try and grab the last spot. Or if they actually sign a 1B (including Hoskins) you can be a little lighter offensive (and better defensively) in the OF.

andyb 2023-09-19 18:45:20 UTC #567

I actually had not seen that column. It just feels like we go Wheeler-Nola-Suarez-Walker with the ability to move Ranger around as needed (like we lose game 1 and are trailing 3-0 in game 2 after 3). I think I go to Ranger in that situation and move Walker into game 3 where the whole staff is available.

Nola and Walker just have not relieved and we should not expect them to do so.

As for CF, I am enjoying Rojas as much as anyone else. I have just seen too many young players with his plate discipline have more trouble the second or third time around to pencil him in for 10 years yet. Marsh and Rojas could easily be in a platoon next year. They'll decide on Harper and that really depends on what they want to do at 1B. I don't think Pache or Muzziotti figure into their plans at all. Castellanos and Schwarber will play. Hopefully Schwarber at DH. Rojas or Marsh will play CF. If Harper is not in the OF I suspect we have a better plan than merely Marsh in LF.

Austinfan 2023-09-20 00:55:08 UTC #568

Rojas is probably less of a free swinger than JT or Castellanos.
I think right now hie problem is he's seeing pitches he didn't see in AA and gets fooled too much.
The fact that he's hitting .300 despite that is pretty impressive.
There just aren't a lot of AA pitchers who throw good splitters, change ups or cutters.

bkeich 2023-09-20 06:01:46 UTC #569

Yes, but we need to partner with a really stupid team. Where are the Expos when you need them? Any chance the Jets ownership is interested in a MLB team? Whatever happened to the Cavs owner that traded away a decade of first round picks about 30 years ago?

zambonir 2023-09-20 11:24:01 UTC #570

I think the real point of those four years of stats is that his good years and his bad years are actually not that far apart from each other. There are some tangible differences (more home runs, fewer Ks) this year but that 1.18 WHIP is actually the ninth-best in the league, and while his 4.19 FIP doesn't sound that great on paper it is 16th in the league, ahead of all the other Phillies starters not named Wheeler and just a bit below (the also struggling) Alcantara.

He is failing to be the ace or even #2 we always want him to be, but the idea that he's a #3 or #5 is a product of not knowing what #3 and #5s leaguewide actually look like (even his unimpressive regular ERA is 18th in the league). Unfortunately, the winning formula from last year of having two aces just isn't an option; if Nola isn't the Game 2 starter that's not ideal either, but patching it together is all they can really do.

Like the column I posted above says, all of that means Nola is probably still a good pitcher going forward, but whether it's luck or mechanics or the pitch clock, his performance won't necessarily change this year. Of course we've also seen him have great starts and signs of the "old" Nola (though not in a little while now).

Also like Hamels in 2009, there’s at least a case to be made that Nola isn’t actually this bad. His 1.19 WHIP is ninth in the National League among starters, and all of his advanced metrics — FIP, xFIP, SIERA, basically all of the acronyms — look significantly better than his actual ERA. But all that really says is that Nola’s talent hasn’t disappeared; it’ll convince his suitors in free agency this winter that the pitcher is fully capable of bouncing back in 2024. It doesn’t really matter for the Phillies now, if Nola continues to show no sign of possessing consistent ability to keep actual runs off the board.

andyb 2023-09-20 12:24:29 UTC #571

I agree that Nola's good and bad years are closer than the topline stats point out. There is a little truth that this year is worse however. The mistakes have been a bit worse (higher HR rate) and some of that could be luck, but the K rate is down too to 9.2/9. That is lower than all but his rookie year and he has been over 10 the past 4 years. In fact one could also say it is a 4-year decline: 12.1 to 11.1 to 10.3 to 9.2.

Nola remade himself as kind of an extreme control pitcher with ultra low walk rates the past 3 seasons and now he has to nibble more. Which gives more opportunity for mistakes (the HR rate). Maybe the walk rate is never going that low again because his stuff is just a little more vulnerable to mistakes now. Hitters could be better too as they prepare for a good breaking ball pitcher like Nola.

He is still the second best on this staff when you add up everything including history and the manager's confidence in him. He'll probably come a bit cheaper in the free agent market this year too which makes me think it is better than 50-50 he returns. He is comfortable here and if he has a decline phase I am not sure he would choose to do that in a new city. It is more likely he still has 3 or 4 good years left though which is kind of the price of a 6-7 year deal these days.

zambonir 2023-09-20 12:44:45 UTC #572

Yeah, the K rate is definitely a trend. Though I can also recall seeing it suggested that his high K games are the sames one that wear him out. PItching to contact more doesn't work if HRs and walks are also up though.

I hope it's true that his price is a bit lower. Perhaps he is forced to just take what the Phillies had already offered. I have a hard time imagining him just taking the best $ deal if it's not with a good team or appealing market for him (and probably both). And the best teams aren't necessarily going to make the preemptive blow-everyone-away offer, while some of the teams that did that last year probably won't do it again.

andyb 2023-09-20 12:56:32 UTC #573

That is kind of the main point. If his stuff is down a tick (like 5%) then he can't get the same swings and misses in the strike zone. So he has to nibble and he misses more.

A really low BB rate is not all about command. It is getting hitters to swing and miss sometimes before you get those 3-ball counts. Pitching to contact might be the future and that is just going to involve him giving up more HRs than one would want. That is still a number 3 starter who can age into a 4/5 starter that eats innings in a few years. If the front end of his next contract is 90% Aaron Nola and the back end is basically Taijuan Walker it is not the worst thing.

Austinfan 2023-09-20 12:57:11 UTC #574

Noal would be fine as the #3 at a #3 salary going forward.
But the Phillies need Abel, Painter, McGarry and a couple other young pitchers to step up the next 2-3 years.
Ranger and Sanchez have given them cheap depth in the rotation, but they need more.

Same with the bullpen, they've been trying to patch with veterans the last few years, but they need to build depth with young pitchers instead of recycling the Bellatis of this world. Soto and Marte show the danger of hoping to turn around other team's underachivers - you can get lucky, but it's not a dependable strategy.

andyb 2023-09-20 13:07:10 UTC #575

But the going rate is still going to be $25 million. I pay that or even a little more, especially if we are not looking at quite the contract length after this season.

And it is really hard to count on much from our prospects. I am big on Ranger but health is an issue with him. Sanchez really looks more like a 6th starter. He is very conspicuously on various lists (from Sarris at the Athletic for one) of pitchers with below average stuff and good results. It just may not be sustainable.

The kids are also hard to count on. Painter is more a 2025 time frame and maybe even 2026 if he does not pitch at all next year. Abel could be a mid-rotation guy. But it might be 50-50. McGarry really looks like a reliever with his inconsistency to me.

I just think there is no substitute for penciling in 180+ innings a year. More pitching is better than less. I think you were willing to give Lorenzen a multi-year deal like Taijuan Walker a few weeks ago. Things change really quickly and Nola is probably the best long term answer out there for a team that can afford to throw some dollars around. Those sellouts this year are all attached to paying fans.

zambonir 2023-09-20 13:55:03 UTC #576

These contracts don't get given out in a vacuum either. Past performance, service time and brand name all factor in. Nola being homegrown and deserving of the money he didn't get at the beginning of his career factors in (Howard deserved that too, the Phillies just did that too early and for too much). And the open market factors in.

Walker currently makes significantly more money on his four-year deal as a #4 ($18 million AAV) than Nola did over the last five years ($12.2 AAV). The scarce FA market does still mean Nola might cost more than the Phillies would like but it means everyone else will too.

zambonir 2023-09-20 14:48:37 UTC #577

I think the framing here is somewhat exaggerated - that Lorenzen isn't even guaranteed to make the playoff roster - but, Gelb writes:

in the postseason, they will need no more than four starters. They will whittle their pitching staff to the most trusted arms. There are at least 10 names ahead of Lorenzen on that list.

I assume that might even include Covey right now (but not Marte or Bellatti). Hopefully Lorenzen can make the transition back to relieving (including finding more velocity in that role).

andyb 2023-09-20 15:50:42 UTC #578

Doesn't it feel like mentioning Covey and playoff roster in the same sentence feels like it needs to be reported to the moderator?

julio 2023-09-20 15:54:30 UTC #579

Noted. We'll consult about the appropriate response...

zambonir 2023-09-20 16:25:27 UTC #580

He's come a long way from us being certain he'd get DFA'ed by the trade deadline. Or even by 9/1 (though in retrospect a team would have definitely snapped him up even if he wasn't playoff-eligible). Still seems unlikely given his usage has been so low-leverage and there are multiple starting pitchers ahead of him for the long reliever/mop-up role, but he's also probably not worse than Falter or Gibson who both pitched in in the post-season last year.

Austinfan 2023-09-20 17:35:10 UTC #581

Sanchez has ML stuff. He's struggled the last couple years but has obviously put it together.
His change up is a plus pitch, his slider is improved.
His FB velocity is up to 93-94 the last couple games, despite pitching almost 50 more innings than the last couple seasons.
Still needs to improve command (control is fine, pitch location can improve) and maybe more movement on his 2 seamer.

But right now Sanchez is easily a #4/#5 on almost any pitching staff in the ML.
His upside is probably a #3, similar to Ranger.

andyb 2023-09-20 19:44:19 UTC #582

It is below average stuff though. The whole point is that he is likely to regress from his performance this year and given his entire history it is hard to disagree with that.