2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion Part 2

[Austinfan]

Read that article more carefully, why some pitchers overperform.
It's guys moving from RP to starter who have command and good changeups.
Ranger and Sanchez have very similar profiles as starting pitchers. Command and plus changeups. Both throw 93-94 when healthy - Sanchez has added velocity this season and is matching his short samples of a couple years ago.

Now to go deep over the long haul he probably needs one more pitch, either a 4 seamer he can throw high in the zone, or a cutter or a slow curve. Just enough to keep hitters off balance 3 times through the lineup.

But as a #4/#5, his current arsenal is more than sufficient. He's over achieving statistically (more at a #2 level) and that shouldn't be trusted, but his overall pitching performance is for real. He gets hit when his pitches wander over the center of the plate, but so does Nola - but we're not paying Sanchez to be the #2.

[andyb]

I did obviously read the article. It is a way to identify overperforming pitchers AND ALSO a way to identify likely regression candidates. Sanchez has a 4.22 ERA in lots of AAA innings (181), Low K rate this year included. I just see no reason to think a .280 BABIP is sustainable. You can't just say he is like Nola too because Nola has actual good stuff. Nola can get swings and misses in the zone and it is harder for Sanchez to do that.

[Callison]

Lorenzen did nothing - that's worse than "struggling" by a lot. May be time for the Phils to admit they made a mistake and find another arm. Knowing the Phils' patience with their players, though, he'll get another couple shots.

The best news this month has been that the pen was only suffering from some sickness, rather than they all got too tired to pitch, but the second best news is that Nola turned in a strong game against the Braves today. The Braves' announcers were commenting on the way the Phils came back several times in the previous series and it would be nice to come back on the Phils in the same way. Shortly later it happened. But later the Phils slammed the door on the Braves the same way the Braves slammed it on the Phils in the previous series. Sure is hard to kill Dracula or beat the Braves. Just a huge W.

Wonder what Big Rob was thinking pitching Hoffman in the 8th? - maybe the righty-lefty matchups looked good, but Hoffman had a bad day. Maybe if Soto starts the inning Kimbrel closes in 9. Maybe Soto is sore.

Huge W.

[allentown]

Lorenzen was a truly plus deadline signing who pitched extremely well for us. Throwing 121 pitches in the no-no, without the background to even suggest that he should attempt this, destroyed him. I'm guessing he has a sore arm.

[Philsmania]

Weather for Saturday looks terrible and not great for Sunday either. Phillies and Mets are both off on Monday (with a short trip home for the Mets to close out their season in Queens). But, at the same time, I wonder if they might preemptively move Saturday's game to Friday afternoon. I have tickets to an outdoor beerfest in Roxborough this Saturday which was postponed to 10/21.

[zambonir]

Doubt the team will give up a Saturday afternoon gate in advance with that many back-up plans (Sunday split doubleheader, Monday make-up game, postpone and only play if needed).

Supposed to be even worse in the Lehigh Valley no?

[andyb]

QO likely to be around $20.5 million. Nola will certainly get an offer. Seems a bit high for Hoskins especially since the reward is only a 4th round pick in compensation I believe.

Any Hoskins pillow contract would likely be for much less, though he'd probably get a chance to earn much more through incentives.

MLB qualifying offer getting increase to record high

[andyb]

Looks like all day rain on Saturday up and down the coast. 2 to 4 inches. Sounds like moving the game to Monday well in advance is the right thing to do.

[Aquapong]

Obviously it’s football but Penn State seems like their going ahead with their Saturday night game. It’s going to be a soggy affair for sure.

[zambonir]

Certainly the Penn State game can be played, heck I've seen MLS play games in ridiculous rain and even snow. But if it's a truly bad storm in terms of wind and flooding probably not ideal to have those 60 or 80,000 people (however many aren't students or people who live in the area) coming in from all over.

Will be funny if it's one of those old-school bad-weather low-passing low-scoring Big 10 games since the Iowa offensive coordinator/head coach's son is contractually required to average 25 points a game to keep his job. He failed to do so in the first two games but then they put up enough points in the last one to get him over for now.

[zambonir]

Rhys took his first BP. Says "a late playoff series" would be the goal.

Craig Kimbrel isn’t concerned about leading MLB in pitch-timer violations: ‘I’d...

[Philsmania]

Now it looks like the system is going to slow down and the weather won't be good on Monday either. MLB may need to consider relocating Saturday's and Sunday's games.

[zambonir]

I think they'll get at least one in somehow. And then they would also have the option to just not make up the game. Or play it in NY on October 1 if necessary. Or in Philly on October 2. But I doubt it will come to that.

[Callison]

Lorenzen was a truly plus deadline signing who pitched extremely well for us. Throwing 121 pitches in the no-no, without the background to even suggest that he should attempt this, destroyed him. I'm guessing he has a sore arm.

Somebody call up the Phils and pass this along, cause they're having trouble figuring this one out. Ironic that his greatest moment in baseball seems to have injured him. We saw how good he can be. So something is surely wrong somewhere and the Phils and Lorenzen need to address it. Why not try some rest? And prayers?

[Matt_Winkelman]

Why is there this theory the no-hitter broke him?

His velocity has actually been up, pitch movement has been somewhat inconsistent (particularly his slider), but there is no trending and that looks like a game to game thing.

It also isn't like the no-hitter was dominant, he walked 4 and struck out only 5 with 13 total whiffs in 9 innings against a bad Nationals team. His changeup looked to have been good that night, and that is about it.

Really the no-hitter is a fluke outcome and he has struggled to miss bats his entire time with the Phillies with no change in stuff. It is still a fine trade, but there is nothing to indicate he is hurt, broken, or facing any after effects of the no-hitter.

[Austinfan]

Basically he struggled his first time as a RP, which is probably more mental - as a SP he pitches to contact and mixes pitches, as a RP he should be taking advantage of a velo jump if he isn't pacing himself for a 100 pitches.

[andyb]

Why is there this theory the no-hitter broke him?

It is just the easy narrative. I agree that it is probably more complicated. Cumulative wear and tear could certainly be a piece of it. Guessing he is 50-50 on the bullpen for the postseason at this point. Like it or now, he'll probably have about 3 relief appearances to show he belongs. Even then there has to be a chance the Phillies go 14/12 in the short series with hitters and pitchers.

[bkox]

I think the fact that hes thrown 50 more innings already this year versus last year and 35 more than his career high (which was his rookie year) has way more of an effect than the no hitter. I mean hes thrown more innings this year than he did combined in 2019, 2020 and 2021.

The other thing with Lorenzen.. this could just be a regression to the mean. His career ERA is 4.14. His ERA with the Tigers was 3.58 this year. Now his season ERA is 4.29 or near his overall career number.

[zambonir]

Yup plus if you believe he needed more rest, he got it. 8 days off after the no-hitter, and then a six-man rotation, and now piggyback. He had the best month of his starting career right before the Phillies traded for him and now he's had the worst month of his starting career. Taken together - or taking the season in its entirety where he was in kind of an every-other-month patttern - he's basically who he always was, especially given starting pitching and this kind of workload is new to him. Let's just hope he can find another gear and groove as a reliever since he actually know how to do that already.

The Phillies acquired him to either replace Sanchez or be emergency starting depth who could relieve. Fortunately neither of those things were actually needed. Had he not pitched the no-hitter he might have lost his rotation spot sooner. Or Sanchez would have had he not just continued to be good.

Remember when the Phillies didn't even have a fifth starter (bullpen games)? Or when Strahm was one and they were worried about his innings?

[allentown]

Well, throwing more IP this year than combined 2019-2021 is all the more reason to be concerned about 121 pitches in a game. 8 days rest unlikely to fix an injury -- hopefully minor. He did say after no-no that he felt worse than after he previous Phillies starts. Up through the no-no: extremely successful starter; after: not at all.