2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion Part 2

[fish]

theathletic.com

If Phillies return to 5-man rotation, Lorenzen could boost bullpen as setup man

As the Phillies start to think ahead, they could make a change that addresses a current need and could help later in October.

Gelb arguing that Lorenzen could step into Seranthony's role, more than being a long man or tandem.

He also says "sickness has run through the bullpen," and he doesn't mean that metaphorically.

Someone in the front office must be banging on the table to get Kerkering promoted- his stuff is as nasty as Hoffman's, why not try to see if he can catch lightning in a bottle and if nothing else give some of the guys a break. His command has been fine and there isn't anything left to refine on his pitches- he can dominate big leaguers with his stuff. Feels like a much better chance of getting something more useful than Bellati or Marte right now.

[andyb]

I agree there could be some upside there. Assume they will move him to Lehigh Valley with the longer season there, but of course they don't want to pull the trigger if they don't have to since it is unclear whether he is ready and they would be putting him on the 40-man roster now. They would not burn an option, but they would start the service time clock.

Now our 40-man protection issues may not be too bad. They'll probably protect Carlos De La Cruz but even that is not a given. None of the big 3 pitchers need to be protected. The plus of having a few lean years on the farm is not having anyone to protect 4-5 years later.

[zambonir]

Yeah Matt W has tweeted some about Kerkering (both that people are going to clamor for him and that it probably shouldn't happen).

And I think Matt Gelb (just related to the pen in general) pointed how few relievers the Phillies actually used last year in the first two rounds of the playoffs. And also that Seranthony wasn't good in September.

Re: Nola - bringing him back also might be tied to Wheeler. If you don't bring him back and go cheap replacing him, you try to extend Wheeler on a shorter and cheaper deal (vs. open market) right away if you can. If you don't imagine giving both of them extensions then maybe Nola is gone.

I think he wants to stay, he just wants to be paid what he's worth, and no discount because he already gave them one (in addition to being underpaid like any great player still early in service time). The only question now is whether someone will meet his price, and will it be some place he wants to play. Hard to imagine him going to a team that meets his price but likely can't win (a la Bryant and the Rockies).

[andyb]

And I think Matt Gelb (just related to the pen in general) pointed how few relievers the Phillies actually used last year in the first two rounds of the playoffs

And I have been talking about that, especially since they will have 1-2 more pitchers capable of going 3-4.

Keeping Rojas around solely as a pinch runner might be important.

[Callison]

He also says "sickness has run through the bullpen," and he doesn't mean that metaphorically.

That's the best Phils news this month. Maybe soon these guys will be dominant again. WHY did disease have to land on the Phils against the phlogging BRAVES???

Been an outstanding series. Every game could have gone either way. The margin of 2 Braves' Ws has been the Phis' crumbling pen. The Phils have hit Braves pitching. Biggest test today, though, against Strider. A righty, so lead bat Sosa will sit, but likely lead bat Cave will get another shot. We're waiting, Jake and Edmundo.

Looks like faint-hearted fans in Philly these days. These are playoff-level, grudge games that should be sold out.

[andyb]

Matt wrote on these bench issues yesterday. They probably have gone too far with Castro, but I do come back to the point that he can hit LHPs and he should have just pinch hit for Marsh lately. I think they see Castro as the 27th man next year on an up/down basis with other guys like Hall and Clemens. And Pache is probably seen internally as Marsh's platoon partner next year with Rojas getting the half season of at bats he probably needs at Lehigh Valley.

But the bench does limit them a bit in games like yesterday if the manager is unwilling to use the option that he was given (i.e. Castro).

The Phillies Built a Bench Without Options

[bkeich]

Maybe we will get a little lucky and have the Braves start resting players, particularly pitchers for our next series with them (probably too early to hope they don't play, but maybe limit players time).

We could use a few wins to lock up the 1st WC. Luckily, the Cubs slumped at the same time we did

[zambonir]

And Pache is probably seen internally as Marsh's platoon partner next year with Rojas getting the half season of at bats he probably needs at Lehigh Valley.

I'd be surprised if Rojas spends a day in AAA at this point. Unless it's a demotion. He's ahead of Pache now.

Is Johan Rojas the Phillies’ everyday center fielder? Not yet, Rob Thomson says

[LoneStarPhan]

Just my opinion, but I think Rojas needs 2 or 3 months of regular starting at AAA. This will give him the needed regular at bats to improve his hitting. He needs to make himself a top-notch bunter. He also needs to improve his plate discipline and increase his walks.

[fish]

Just my opinion, but I think Rojas needs 2 or 3 months of regular starting at AAA.

Dominican winterball would be the equivalent- but what you are looking for will take more ABs than than that to make him a finished product. You wouldn’t think it would take more than 3 weeks to teach someone to bunt but time and again you see guys that can’t keep the bat still and on the correct plane- like they e received zero coaching on how to do it…which may be true. Sometimes I think Bryce Harper googled “how to bunt” watching his decisions.

[zambonir]

It could certainly happen but I think they might just feel he can develop on the job at this point, and not hurt the team while doing so. Pache does give them that luxury if they want, but either way it doesn't seem like they would go out looking for a new LF, especially if Harper returns to RF (that would basically mean Marsh/Castellanos in LF and March/Pache-Rojas in CF if they don't trade Castellanos).

I reckon learning how to bunt is less of an issue than practicing it regularly. At this point even the obvious guys probably don't practice bunting any more than pitchers used to practice hitting, with similar success rates. With the new rules maybe that should and will be re-thought.

[andyb]

Rojas could easily play in Arizona too.

There are just flaws in his swing that are pretty apparent and I think he would get exploited if over-exposed now. He is not great against harder throwing RHPs at the moment and there are lots of that breed. Marsh in LF is also not ideal even if there is added defense.

But mainly this is about Rojas. He has flaws offensively and has never played AAA. He can survive in the majors now on speed and defense and lack of a scouting report. But he probably won't be great without more seasoning. What happened to Pache could easily happen to him (stalling offensively).

[zambonir]

Pache didn't "stall" though, he was unplayably bad. And a negative WAR player despite defense. It's a consideration, certainly, but I think if Rojas struggles for a few months with a .650 OPS it's not something he (and the team) can't survive. Pache was like, <.500 OPS for Oakland last year and <.400 the year that the Braves had to send him back to AAA.

I certainly don't think the Sixers are going to get anyone for LF who's better than Marsh or Cave, though they could get a RHB obviously.

[bkox]

I certainly don't think the Sixers are going to get anyone for LF who's better than Marsh or Cave,

Sixers?? hehe

[andyb]

Pache didn't "stall" though, he was unplayably bad.

Pache DID stall. He was as good in AA at age 20 as Rojas was at age 22 except for the stolen bases. Then the pandemic came and he played bit roles on the major league team when he was not ready. Then he went to AAA and was good but not great while shuttling back and forth to the majors again before he was ready.

He stopped getting better. Major league pitchers figured him out and he was unable to learn at the major league level setting him back multiple years because everybody just assumed he would figure it out like he did in the lower minors at a young age.

Quoting his major league stats as bad is kind of useless because he should not have been in the majors. Rojas is overmatched in lots of at bats. I just worry he will stall if he can't learn how to deal with that properly. Pache DID stall. He stopped getting better and could not learn at the major league level - exactly the kind of thing that could happen if Rojas is mishandled.

[zambonir]

haha no idea where that came from. I think Marsh could probably replace Harden.

[Callison]

Was REALLY hoping for a split or better against the Braves and we NEARLY got it. Disappointing big time, but lots of positives out of the series, too. My rationalization: in any 4 game series between equal teams, each team will win one and two games could go either way... so this time the Braves won the two that could go either way.

The announcers, who are sometimes wrong, were saying what a great job Sanchez did after the first inning. They acknowledged he'd allowed 4 runs in 6 1/3, the deepest he'd ever gone in a game. Thought, yeah he's really looked steady against the Braves, except for the first, and they're a top lineup. 4 runs is discouraging, but the pitching afterwards was strong. The announcers observed that he threw too many fastballs in the first. Sounds like an easy fix and Sanchez could be a strong reliever on the playoffs.

Big Rob apparently feels that Schwarber hits better if he also plays LF. That's all I got for why he's out there. The Phils have a benchful of strong defensive OFs, but they're only used now and then.

I want the guys who taught Stott and Marsh to hit working with Rojas every day. IMHO, if he could learn to keep off a high pitch, that might make the difference. He covers CF like Maddox. He runs like a deer. I like the way that he gets the start yesterday against a tough righty because he got 2 hits the game before - earned it. Sure looks like the CF of the future and he's hitting .280 now. Many expected to see Cave start yesterday, but he's been so cold, he missed the opportunity. Cave had been nearly automatic against righties. Big Rob sending a message to Cave.

[rkeden]

I think that we should send Rojas to our facility in Las Vegas this winter. Do you like the way Stott hits? Thinks while batting? Has such a quick bat? Reduces his swing with two strikes. Uses his wrists for additional power without lunging? Maybe he learned that from Bryce or Bryce's hitting mentor in LV. Maybe Rojas can be the next to pick up those batting skills quietly, working daily without the pressure of a winter league. Just an outside-the-box thought!

[bkox]

Braves star Ronald Acuña Jr. calls out Phillies manager over perceived...

[Austinfan]

Keep an eye on Kroon for the bench next year, plays almost every position, right now tearing it up in AAA in CF after a very good season in AA. Under the radar b/c he missed so much PT due to injury and COVID, and durability is a concern. But RH bat with some power who can play multiple positions would be a good fit.

He'd be a good fill-in for Rojas if they want him to start the season in LHV.