2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion Part 2

zambonir 2023-09-11 22:48:42 UTC #503

Right now I think that's right. Question is do you leave him off the roster entirely? Last year Thomson made noise about leaving one of Thor, Gibson or Falter off, with the spin that they could be a potential NLDS Game 1 starter, but he didn't do it. Not one of them pitched and of course it was only a two-game series and they wound up going Wheeler/Nola/Suarez in NLDS. Gibson mopped up Game 2 and Thor was part of the long list of relievers behind Falter in Game 4. Walker has not sunk to Gibson or Falter's level but he's not used to relieving and he gets off to bad starts.

andyb 2023-09-11 22:55:55 UTC #504

Thor started game 4 of the NLDS and game 5 of the WS. Falter had the disaster of the NLCS start. Thor was generally ahead of Falter and Gibson in the pecking order and behind Suarez who also relieved.

I think Walker gets every chance the rest of the way to be that 4th starter with a short leash over Sanchez who has more relief experience. This will likely be a decision not made until we get there and there may be some L/R lineup dynamics in play.

allentown 2023-09-11 23:51:15 UTC #505

But that's why you have pitch counts, which determine, at least in large measure, when to take a pitcher out of game. When a guy is coming back from injury, or hasn't been a guy who throws a lot of pitches (Lorenzen), or who tires (Nola) it's important to have the pitch count discipline.

zambonir 2023-09-11 23:56:25 UTC #506

oh yeah I was looking at NLCS not NLDS. NLDS was Ranger/Wheeler/Nola/Thor. When I said Thor was "behind" Falter I didn't mean in the pecking order just that he literally relieved him the NLCS. With L/R being part of the (failed) plan clearly.

I don't think you can overestimate how huge it was to beat the Cards in 2 and the Braves in 4. If either of those go the distance, never mind the part where you are playing an elimination game at home, the pitching lines up differently. And the same with the Padres series only going 5. Nola got rocked but probably neither he nor Wheeler would have pitched early in the WS had that one gone 7.

zambonir 2023-09-11 23:58:00 UTC #507

I'm sure Ranger was on a pitch count and would have been yanked after 7. But not one manager or front office in the bigs was pulling him after 6 in that situation if he wasn't likely to hit his count the way he'd been pitching so far. And the fact that he gave up a walk and a couple of hits doesn't mean he was tired. Sometimes it just happens. And the way the relievers behind him pitched they might not have protected a 3-0 lead either.

bkeich 2023-09-12 00:49:56 UTC #508

So, this off-season it was Painter that was thought to take the 5th spot once the new season began. Is there any chance that Abel steps up into that slot in April? I realize he has not had any starts in AAA but at some point they need young pitchers, there are huge problems in continuing to add $20M Pitchers with all the money jn our lineup
Abel still has a higher ERA than one might like, but he is down to 6.1 hits/ 9 IP, which is insanely good. He has control issues, but do they try and see if he can give them 4-5 IP starts next year? I doubt it, but it is hard to see them getting a quality starter or resign Nola

zambonir 2023-09-12 01:10:56 UTC #509

Oh, I think they will either re-sign Nola or replace Nola somehow (perhaps they will just re-sign Lorenzen, perhaps it will be something bigger). Abel will be given the chance but if he makes the rotation it will also mean Sanchez didn't.

andyb 2023-09-12 03:12:21 UTC #510

Abel really looks like a guy who needs at least a half season in AAA. Maybe you let him compete for a job, but you have 5 starters penciled in ahead of him along with a AAAA guy before the season starts.

Abel is not like Painter in that his command is mediocre now. There are just things to improve upon if he is to survive much less thrive in the majors.

I think they re-sign Nola or replace him with somebody making decent money (Japanese guy?). Lorenzen seems more of a 5th starter type at the moment. Don't really see him as a 180+ inning guy and that is probably what they want.

LoneStarPhan 2023-09-12 03:47:53 UTC #511

I have little doubt that if they do not bring Nola back, they will sign or trade for a veteran starting pitcher for the rotation in 2024.

Best case for the future would be to have Able impress in spring training and in early starts at AAA. There will be a need for another starter sooner or later. If Able takes a step forward next year, he can be a real blessing.

zambonir 2023-09-12 11:49:48 UTC #512

Gelb arguing that Lorenzen could step into Seranthony's role, more than being a long man or tandem.

He also says "sickness has run through the bullpen," and he doesn't mean that metaphorically.

zambonir 2023-09-12 11:57:30 UTC #513

This doesn't surprise me, as I was unable to go last night and sold my tickets at a loss. Both games probably had a ton of paid ticketholders who just didn't go to the trouble to exchange them for another game. The day game was higher paid because that was originally a June night game for which sales were probably good at the time. The night game was rescheduled back in mid-May.

If you closed your eyes and listened to the roar of a surprisingly robust weekday crowd of 30,572 for a makeup game — or the 27,025 paying customers at night — you might have guessed it was already October.

As the story also notes, Phillies still need to at least get the split here to keep the Braves from leaving as division champions.

EDmuch 2023-09-12 12:10:14 UTC #514

To me the somewhat obvious replacement for Nola is Blake Snell.

bkox 2023-09-12 12:25:36 UTC #515

will definitely get a QO so we lose a draft pick again.

And many feel Snell will get north of $200M. Is he worth that?

zambonir 2023-09-12 12:36:58 UTC #516

Yup I either sign Nola or I'm shopping in the Taijuan Walker/Michael Lorenzen aisle (barring a Japanese pitcher). A big part of Nola's appeal is no draft pick.

Snell is also a year older and has just not been the pitcher Nola is, except for that 2018 season and now this one. Would sooner buy low on Nola (if that is in fact possible) than high on Snell. Both are recency bias. Snell's peripherals not that great this year either (still having a better season than Nola obviously, but they are red flags).

Snell also hasn't shown the ability to give you a ton of innings. You can say that's a positive (less wear on him) but it also might not be.

My gut feeling is the Nola situation won't be that protracted. It could be like Freddie Freeman, it could be like JT Realmuto, but either way it will happen reasonably fast. If the Phillies truly believe Nola is heading into decline than by all means stay away. But any over-30 pitcher might be.

Callison 2023-09-12 16:27:02 UTC #517

Huge W to split with the Braves so far. Some heavy lifting to do after the crushing loss earlier, but you gotta like the way the Phils hung in there. Earlier in the season, Alvarado was untouchable. Maybe he wore the wrong beads...

Just great competition. It's playoff baseball and the Phils have to find out how good they are.

phillychuck 2023-09-12 16:40:26 UTC #518

I'm nervous about Nola's health given his innings so far, but he might be fine, too. I just get the impression he sees the grass as greener elsewhere already.

Austinfan 2023-09-12 17:04:30 UTC #519

Frankly, I think I'd take Lorenzen over Nola, I suspect you can sign him for far less money and term.
Then get some depth arms, and buy time for Abel in 2024 and Painter in 2025.
I'd think about trading Muzzioti for a young arm if there's no room for him on the 2024 roster, keep building up depth at AA and AAA.

Philsmania 2023-09-12 17:05:54 UTC #520

What we see is probably what we get with Lorenzen. The question is whether or not Nola will ever be what he previously was again.

andyb 2023-09-12 17:18:36 UTC #521

Also whether there is any sort of hometown discount. Probably not since it has gone this far, but that is probably as much about Nola's camp hoping to set the bar really high with a good walk year.

It is pretty clear that Nola's value will be down a bit. Guessing he is looking at slightly shorter deals now (more 5 than 7) though the AAV will still be high given the weak market. I just find it hard to believe that this team with a core in its prime (and really late prime) will let a number 2 starter walk and replace them with a 4/5 guy like Lorenzen even if that guy signs for a nominal amount say 3/36. DD really believes in a strong, durable rotation that eats innings to make the bullpen better.

Austinfan 2023-09-12 17:18:48 UTC #522

I think Nola can bounce back a tad, but he's already got a full repertoire of pitches (4 and 2 seamer, curve, changeup and cutter), it's not like he's going to reinvent himself (where Wheeler may make adjustments when his velo declines to 94-95 from 95-97). I think some of his command issues this year might be fixed mechanically, but they may also stem from a guy with average strength pitching a lot of innings and just wearing down over time.

To me he's just not worth gambling on a 5-6 year, $200+ million deal, which I suspect he'll be looking at.
He's pitching like a #4 this year, and I think his future upside is at best a #3 for a couple years before he fades away or hurts his arm.