2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion Part 2

[zambonir]

My target has been 90 wins, get there and you finished strong and were on a 100 win pace after the All Star break.
Less than that and I have concerns.

Concerns about what? The season has already pretty much happened, the number they need to get to is the one that clinches the top wild card. Whether they do that with 87, 89, 90 or 91 wins means nothing otherwise, not for for playoffs, nor for what needs to be addressed in the off-season. Either way they are still not among MLB's elite teams including the six-time NL East champions and probably can't do enough in this off-season to get there next year either.

Unlike last year I also don't think you can draw a line in the middle of the season (or June). They were actually pretty good in April, and they still have some of the same problems they had in April (when they had a good OPS but couldn't score or hit HRs) and May. But there were no major changes to the team other than getting Harper back (and that was something that happened last year too).

[Austinfan]

Harper didn't come back until August, before then he was a shadow of himself.
And Turner didn't arrive until August.
They were a different team with those two playing up to their career norms.
And Schwarber leading off is a much better player for some reason.

They are a better team with Harper at 1B, Schwarber at DH, Marsh/Pache in LF - though the way Caves has hit, I wish they'd just keep Rojas in CF and let him learn on the job.

The problem has been pitching, with solid pitching they're a 100 win team, with a shaky pitching staff like the last few weeks, a .500 team. Much like the 2008 team. But I'd feel much better about the post-season if the pitching staff gets it together the last few weeks (Suarez flashed last night, Sanchez got his changeup back but is probably on a pitch limit, but Nola, Walker, SD are scaring me right now). And if that happens, they'll break the 90 win target.

[zambonir]

But you of all people can't possibly think that Harper and Turner and Schwarber (and Castellanos and Realmuto) will just be the guys they were in August all the time, let alone that it makes them a 90-win team that can target 93 or 95 next year (in a vacuum).

And the schedule had a lot to do with it too. Home games, a few weaker opponents... and those same factors should still let them cruise into the #1 spot without too much late-September agita.

It's true the team is better with Harper at 1B. Heck, between his bat and getting him out of the field Schwarber is going to end up as a 1.2 WAR player instead of a negative 2.0 player, though he hasn't not led off since sometime in June I don't think (89 games out of 117 on the season).

[Austinfan]

They're not going to be as hot as August, but Turner and Harper have long track records of elite production, which they didn't show the first 100 games or so. Schwarber has also been the ultimate "three outcome" hitter at leadoff. So it's not a stretch to say they're a top offense with those three and a solid supporting cast. The rest of the group may not be world beaters, but they basically have .750+ OPS from 4th to 9th in the lineup and that's some nice depth.

This is much like two decades ago, when they could hit, but inconsistent pitching held them back for almost a decade until everything jelled at the right time in 2008.

[zambonir]

I just don't know if any of it means anything. The Phillies actually played their most winning baseball in June (.692). That had more to do with pitching than a great offense, certainly. July was .560, August was .630. Those two great months cancel out May (.385). But I reckon (to use the cliche) they are what their record says they are. A .550, 89-win team that is also (right now) exactly .600 at home and .500 on the road. If they win 88 or 90 instead, okay. Only matters to gamblers (but I think all three of those numbers win the over).

October will come down to being hot and lucky at the right time for a long time. They are probably still a team that will get exposed in a long series, this time the NLCS - if they are lucky enough to beat Atlanta (or possibly LA) in the NLDS.

[Callison]

I am also somewhat concerned that the use and management of the pitching is not getting the best out of what they have.

IMHO, the loss yesterday was 100% on Big Rob. Ranger threw a 4 pitch walk to open the inning. That oughta be telling him something. He gives his players plenty of slack. In particular, when a starter has thrown six solid innings, he wants him to do more. Cost the team big time yesterday.

SD was once a shut-down reliever, but he's so lost it. I thought the first time he got torched after coming back that he just needed more work, but it's been a while now and he's not fully recovered. The Phils used to have a deep, shut-down pen. Not any more.

But we got playoff baseball to burn with TWO series against the Braves... the dominant Braves. The Phils are capable, but you can just never tell when they're going to show up. They need to prove that they can play at the Braves' level, not only to the league but also to themselves... oh yeah, and the fans. THEY MIGHT, THEY MIGHT, THEY MIGHT!!!!

[andyb]

I was really thinking Suarez should be done after 6 since he is still building up his pitch count again. The 4-pitch walk sealed it though I guess the no-hitter was still going and Rob is just not going to pull a starter with a no-hitter who has a reasonable pitch count (i.e. well below 100). Player's manager through and through and it probably cost us a bit yesterday.

SD is definitely a little lost. Velocity is good but not great but the offspeed stuff looks flat. He really has been average of late. Not good enough for high leverage moments but not bad enough to demote to Covey-land. I think they should still try to get him right by October. I love what Hoffman has done, but not sure he is ready for too many big postseason moments either.

[zambonir]

Yup, with not much of a game thread it wasn't discussed, but dude had a no-hitter and was pitching as dominantly as anyone has all year (including the guy who actually finished his no-hitter). Nobody could seriously claim to have seen or expected any manager to be prepared to hook him any sooner than he ended up doing, even if he probably wasn't going to pitch the 8th and 9th regardless. And if someone had warmed up between innings (the only way a reliever would have been ready after the walk) and didn't get used that wouldn't have been good the day before a doubleheader either.

(And the walk did not open the inning. The Myers hit also could have been an out with just a little better luck/pitch.)

[Callison]

Too po'd about the loss to recall there was an out before the 4-pitch walk.

While it may be true that the no hitter opportunity is never taken away, it cost the team the W. Can't find the number of complete games he's thrown, but it might be in the area of 2. No mound conversation after the walk, either, as I recall.

Still too po'd.

[David_Criss]

Did the Phillies add a pitcher for the DH today?

[andyb]

Did the Phillies add a pitcher for the DH today?

There is no move listed. Maybe they are doing it between games to save a little money (or not at all).

[bkox]

Do players still get added for DHs in Sept since the rosters are already expanded?

[zambonir]

I don't think you get paid by the game. You get one day's salary and one day's service time.

But the 28-man point is a good one too.

[gmwannabe]

looks like the fans are fading as well as the Phils pitching. reminds me of a rewind back to 2016-17 seasons with the crowd. not a good sign at all. Neither is the game.
gm

[zambonir]

I don't think that has anything whatsoever to do with the team. School's back. And this is a rain-out/make-up game.

(Eagles back too. But the playoff games will be sold out. Tickets are still pretty hard to get the rest of the year too. Not sold out but limited choices.)

[BaseballCat]

For my game on the 13th, there are better tickets available in the 300 sections behind home plate than there were a few days ago. I guess season ticket holders can sell back if they are not going. I assume I would pay a few bucks less now than I did on stubhub (45 vs 51) but I don’t know what other fees are added on over the price shown on Phils site. Still happy to be going and hope rain does not impact the game

[Philsmania]

Many casual fans don't check in until both the Flyers and Sixers are done and check out once the Eagles get started.

It wasn't this way from 2007-11 when the intensity and and attendance grew as the season got later.

[andyb]

Ask (at least in the game thread) and ye shall receive:

Phillies optioned Andrew Bellatti between games. Yunior Marte is back.

— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) September 11, 2023

I almost wonder if they intended to use Bellatti in that situation (or just about any 6th inning situation that would come up) anyway as a way to squeeze an extra inning or two for the bullpen.

[zambonir]

I found it shocking attendance was as good as it was all season. But that's the power of making the World Series even without winning (vs. '07 when they got bounced early. It wasn't until mid-'09 that the sellout streak began). They probably did a very good job selling seasons and groups too.

I don't reckon the Flyers or even the Sixers kept anyone from going to the ballpark this year!

I also go to a lot of concerts, big and small, and most of them (besides Taylor) are not tough tickets right now either. Springsteen very much wasn't (before Philly was cancelled and even still in NJ) and I've either flat-out eaten or taken a loss on some others when I had an extra or couldn't go myself. And believe it or not people are still getting COVID!

[kmc1019]

Watching Taijuan Walker nibble to survive does not give confidence that he has any business starting a postseason game for the Phillies. I am sure they use Nola behind Wheeler. Sanchez and Suarez both give a better chance to win than Walker.