2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion Part 2

Aquapong 2023-09-08 20:58:01 UTC #463

At the moment in a three game series, I’d go with Wheeler in game one. Then it’s a crap shoot. Whomever can pitch effective innings. Everyone else would be on a short leash.

zambonir 2023-09-08 21:26:05 UTC #464

I don't think there is any doubt Wheeler starts Game 1 (unless he wound up being needed on the last two days of the season). And not much doubt that Nola starts Game 2 either. Pretty sure it's Walker for a possible Game 3 too, though that would be all hands on deck anyway (and yeah, so would all the games really. We could easily see Suarez or Lorenzen or Sanchez as soon as Game 1 depending on the situation, though hopefully that situation does not arise).

I think Callison was just talking about the next three nights though.

Callison 2023-09-09 17:35:39 UTC #465

Check.

The Phils come up with a punchless game like yesterday about every 3 games. 2nd SD game another example. Trying to roll with it. All season.

It is absolutely show time today, for the team, but especially for Nola. Playoff level ball. And the Evil Empire Braves are all over the horizon.

Some of the orders Big Rob makes are for the way he wants everybody to play rather than the way they're playing. Castellanos bats #5 and later in the orders I make. I like Stott 2nd, Turner 3rd. Two lefties in a row isn't the worst thing. Now that I've got that off my chest, Castellanos should go on another hot streak.

zambonir 2023-09-09 17:44:04 UTC #466

Thomson actually refused to comment on Nick's slump (or, terrible second half?) last night which is unlike him, but it sounds like he will move down. Turner and Harper never will though. And Schwarber actually has turned out to be the Phillies' best offensive player when leading off.

bkox 2023-09-09 18:09:35 UTC #467

Tonight’s Phillies lineup Topper dropped Castellanos to 8th

Schwarber DH
Turner 6
Harper 3
Bohm 5
Stott 4
Realmuto 2
Marsh 8
Castellanos 9
Cave 7

Nola RHP
— The Good Phight ( @TheGoodPhight ) September 9, 2023

zambonir 2023-09-09 18:38:42 UTC #468

I think Gelb either reported or speculated that Bohm was going to hit 4th. HIs column was also about Rojas, and how they haven't been willing to play him that much. I guess considering the Phillies lost 3-2 last night (and Pache didn't deliver PHing for Marsh either) that's understandable but unfortunately Cave doesn't actually make a difference either. He doesn't necessarily hurt them since he's a competent fielder but I feel like the Rojas/Pache skill set still adds more value (and then Marsh is the LF obviously).

Also, Frantzke fans can find him on TV tonight and tomorrow with McCarthy off doing NFL. Murphy takes the radio PBP, I actually like him well enough in that role.

Gelb also said the Phillies are keeping Castro because they don't want to burn his last option. Probably doesn't matter given how little he or anyone else - like Wilson - would play. And irrelevant once they set the playoff roster. Not sure Castro really needs to be on the 40 next year anyway but I understand them wanting to literally keep the option open.

Lucky_Beagle 2023-09-09 19:41:59 UTC #469

Did his column on Rojas include anything about him not stealing 2nd base last night and then Schwaber singles which may have scored the run? Of course maybe they IBB Schwaber then (although with a lefty pitching unlikely IMO) of course maybe the pitch selection is different then?

bkox 2023-09-10 04:24:40 UTC #470

Speaking of Rojas... Can anyone explain this to me.. because something seems weird here.

BBref has Rojas at 1.7 WAR with only 42 games played and only 111 PA. Most of that is defense of course.. but.. if you multiple that out to 130 games.. its like 5.3 WAR which would be top 15 in the MLB.

Fangraphs has him at 0.8, which would come out to about 2.5 over 130 games which would still place him in the top 100 of all MLB hitters this year.

AND... of those 42 games, he came in for defense in the 7th inning or later. So hes only played like 27 full games.

So am I missing something here? Or does WAR seem to over value defense. Or is WAR thrown off by Rojas small sample size? OR.. is Rojas already one of the top players in baseball (lol)

mdougherty12 2023-09-10 06:00:25 UTC #471

The various defensive metrics, like DRS and UZR, are notoriously volatile in small samples. IIRC, the rule of thumb used to be that a season of defensive stats were equivalent to ~2 months of offensive stats. The newer Statcast metrics may be less volatile since they're tracking the player and the ball directly, but I believe that BBRef is still using DRS for its WAR calculation and Fangraphs is still using UZR for its WAR calculation.

Aquapong 2023-09-10 13:21:13 UTC #472

I’ve always gone by fWar and not bWar.

I wonder if they will push today’s game to 4pm.

Callison 2023-09-10 16:55:30 UTC #473

The Nola problem - got the talent, but whether or not he brings it is a total crap shoot these days. Strikes guys out and gets his jock knocked off. I'd guess the stuff that gets hit doesn't move enough. Any other theories out there? Whatever - the pitching coaches have to fine tune Nola.

Castellanos looks good down the order. Got his attention. Great move. Won't last and here's hoping Castellanos rises to the challenge.

The announcers noted that Marsh wasn't going to be looking for his name in the lineup anymore. The Phils coaches made him into a hitter.

Cave continues to get PT but doesn't hit. IMHO, he looks good at the plate - has a decent eye. Big Rob BELIEVES in him, though, and it looks like he'll get the rest of the season to prove himself. Ditto Sosa... disappearing Sosa...

Huge game today. The Phils need to start beating the best teams. The Marlins are one of them.

zambonir 2023-09-10 17:23:20 UTC #474

The announcers, though, are frequently wrong. Though I'm sure they read this too. Depends whether "future" means October or 2024.

Marsh’s OPS against lefties is 208 points lower than against righties. He’s made improvements versus lefties from a season ago. The Phillies viewed him as a future everyday player when they acquired him last summer in a trade with the Angels but acknowledged that Marsh was best used in the short term as a platoon player.

But it’s possible the Phillies still attempt to hide Marsh against a lefty starter — depending on the matchup.

The Phillies have faced seven left-handed starters since Marsh was activated from the injured list Aug. 20. Marsh has started only one of those games. Do the Phillies still see him as someone who must be platooned?

“Not necessarily,” Thomson said this week. “It depends on who the lefty is. We faced (Angels lefty Reid) Detmers and Marsh was in the outfield. So, I think it just depends on how tough the lefty is on lefties. I think Marsh is capable of hitting lefties. And, in the future, he’s really going to be able to handle that.”

allentown 2023-09-10 20:27:02 UTC #475

I think the number of innings he's pitched have tired/slightly injured(?) his arm. He threw 230 IP last season and is already at 176 this year. He was totally out of juice in the WS last year and toward the end of last season was showing poorer starts after long starts. He's not super-efficient on pitches/IP, so he's thrown a ton in his Phillies career. He was never as good with runners on base and the limit on throws to 1B and the pitch clock have made that worse. He's not the innings-eating horse he used to be, unfortunately. Last year he used time between pitches and throws to first to catch his wind. He can't this year.

LoneStarPhan 2023-09-10 21:03:51 UTC #476

The Miami series at home raises a huge red flag for me. In all three games, the Phillies had a lead after the first several innings. In game one they blew a 2-run lead on the home run given up by Dominguez after getting five great shutout innings from Sanchez. In game two, they had a 5-run lead until Nola allowed 4 runs in the fifth inning. They held on for the win in game two, but then today, they have Suarez pitch six hitless, scoreless innings before blowing a 3-run lead. Suarez ran out of gas with one out in the 7th, allowing the Marlins to tie the game. Dominguez giving up a 2-run home run in the 8th finished the collapse. In this series, the Phillies had leads of 2, 5, and 3 runs only to allow the Marlins to come back to win two of the games and pull within one of the 5-0 lead. This worries me.

I am concerned that they do not have the pitching needed to do well in the post season. I am also somewhat concerned that the use and management of the pitching is not getting the best out of what they have. I could be very wrong and I sure hope I am. The Phillies are still in good position to make the playoffs, and once in, anything can happen.

phillychuck 2023-09-10 21:51:16 UTC #477

LSP, they only play well from behind...

LoneStarPhan 2023-09-10 22:17:24 UTC #478

It almost feels like they win more often when the other team scores first.

I tell myself to relax and enjoy the games. Usually doesn't work. I've been fretting over the Phillies for more than seventy years.

zambonir 2023-09-10 22:52:04 UTC #479

The schedule is not really doing them any favors this week. Tomorrow's afternoon game was supposed to be played in June and the night game was supposed to be on Thursday but they moved it off the Eagles game. What should have been an off-day followed by three games is now a four-gamer with no off-day and a doubleheader.

I think last year already showed us that what the team looked like in September has nothing to do with what happens in the playoffs necessarily. Heck, they could even blow the #1 wild card and then exceed our expectations again. Whereas right now if they are the #1 wild card I still see them losing to the Braves (but that was true last year as well).

zambonir 2023-09-11 12:34:45 UTC #480

Another reason to get at least a split in this series - if the Braves take 3 they clinch the NL East in Philadelphia.

Austinfan 2023-09-11 12:40:51 UTC #481

My target has been 90 wins, get there and you finished strong and were on a 100 win pace after the All Star break.
Less than that and I have concerns.

I think they need to clear out Castellanos next season, too many "free swingers" in this lineup, you can see the value of having Schwarber leading off, and hopefully Harper regains his mojo where he's patient and waits for his pitch. Stott's another guy who runs up pitch counts - that not only wears out starters, but first time through the order gets everyone a look at the pitcher's total repertoire. When they struggle, it's usually when they're overly aggressive, nothing wrong with swinging at a hitable first pitch, but when you're chasing sliders in the dirt you're just digging yourself a hole.

jimbomill 2023-09-11 12:45:27 UTC #482

Reminds me of the movie Seabiscuit - gotta let 'em see the opponent in the lead, before kicking in the afterburners.