2023 Phillies Post Season Discussion

[bkox]

[bkeich]

Crazy part about that is 3.51 ERA is still pretty good

[andyb]

Those numbers are very good. Probably a little artificially low because all 4 teams have had short series and really not had to go into their long relievers and back parts of the bullpen. If the Phillies had to use Sanchez and Lorenzen and Walker for 10 innings we probably give up more relief runs.

We kind of lucked into Hoffman and Kerkering, but we pointedly went out and got Kimbrel, Soto, and Strahm to make our bullpen longer and deeper and it seems the best thing we have done for team construction in the non $100 million plus category. Part of me is hoping that Fuld had a lot to do with that, as he really looks like he'll get the number one job in a couple of years when DD moves on to Nashville or retirement.

[zambonir]

I dunno, do bullpen ERAs get higher or lower in the post-season? But yeah, that's like 1 run in three+ innings (so, basically what the Phillies got in Game 1 though that run wasn't earned).

I'm guessing it was right there with the other three teams before last night.

[zambonir]

I would imagine Fuld and the assistant GM from Tampa both had a role in that. But I also think Brian Kaplan and Cotham have been the killer hires. They are obviously consulted before anyone gets signed, and then everything about pitcher usage (mechanics, match-ups, availability) runs through them (and whatever analytics people work with them). Can't even really call Hoffman or Kerkering luck, someone still had to scout them even if one has exceeded expectations and the other risen so quickly (though I have seen it suggested they expected that, even, when they drafted him. Just not this quickly).

I was also thinking last night that the Phillies bench coach - can you name him? I couldn't without looking - must be an unheralded part of the braintrust. Instead of that baseball lifer type (Bowa, Mackanin, Thomson himself) with coaching experience he's a former advance scout (including for Tampa) who also worked for Vanderbilt and was previously the quality assurance coach. I suspect he's probably the main point of contact between analytics/front office and the dugout.

[bkeich]

Those numbers are very good. Probably a little artificially low because all 4 teams have had short series and really not had to go into their long relievers and back parts of the bullpen. If the Phillies had to use Sanchez and Lorenzen and Walker for 10 innings we probably give up more relief runs.

We kind of lucked into Hoffman and Kerkering, but we pointedly went out and got Kimbrel, Soto, and Strahm to make our bullpen longer and deeper and it seems the best thing we have done for team construction in the non $100 million plus category. Part of me is hoping that Fuld had a lot to do with that, as he really looks like he'll get the number one job in a couple of years when DD moves on to Nashville or retirement.

The funny part is we have TRIED to buy a better bullpen for at least 4-5 years now. It just finally worked (last year we had part of a very good bullpen, but it was more home grown than this one). For a couple years our “bought” bullpen was at or near the worst in the league, now we have guys that are having great seasons that can barely get in the game (Hoffman, and yes, as crazy as it sounds, Covey).

Umm, 6 to go. I didn’t say that.

[Austinfan]

They definitely focused on velocity, Soto, Marte, Hoffman, Kimbrel even Covey is 95+. Same with college pitchers, they focused on starters who were likely to get a jump in velocity when moved to the pen.

The downside is some loss of command, though I think the feeling is they can gamble with low cost RPs, maybe fix mechanics, tweak a secondary pitch, and turn a mediocre pitcher into a solid contributor. If it doesn't work (Marte), just move on to the next guy.

[andyb]

It is velocity AND spin rate with its associated analytics. They probably had no expectation that Kerkering would pick up so much velocity. But they liked the spin on his slider which was already elite at his college velocity.

They are just smarter. Velocity and analytics both matter. Deep bullpens as a strategy matter too. Maybe more than their 4th and 5th starters matter since the goal has been to get to the post-season and then win with the deep bullpen.

[Jazzhead]

Deep bullpens as a strategy matter too. Maybe more than their 4th and 5th starters matter since the goal has been to get to the post-season and then win with the deep bullpen.

Agree - if the new dynamic is to get to the playoffs, even as a wild card, and then thrive in the postseason, it seems clear that money invested in the fourth, fifth and sixth relievers may be money better spent than on the fourth, fifth and sixth starters. We haven't yet seen either Walker or Sanchez on the mound, while our mid-level relievers have been worked hard, and performed well.

[zambonir]

But that argument/strategy is also a pretty strong one for re-signing Nola, I'd say. You still need to have those two horses.

It will be interesting to see how they use Suarez, the bullpen and the other starters going forward. Two best-of-sevens - and the 2-3-2 calendar - very different then the first two rounds (and especially the extended NLDS calendar).

[andyb]

We really want 10+ innings from those 3 games in the middle from Suarez, Sanchez, and Walker combined. Assuming 6 from Wheeler in game 5 we would then have about 11 other bullpen innings to fill over 3 days.

[Callison]

Just watched a video about CBP crowd noise. Turns out "Motorhead" performs at 108db, so CBP at 111db is at rock concert levels. "Led Zep" reached 130db and apparently some current band does too.

Hope everybody is enjoying the Alec Bohm show. Hard to believe he wasn't born at 3B after yesterday. Brooks Robinson never played any better. (When the O's beat the Dodgers in a WS, Lasorda said something like, "If we were meant to win the WS, Brooks Robinson wouldn't have played 3B against us.")

Really nice outing for Nola. When your bad pitches get nailed and your D gets you outs anyway, you pitch a lot better, as Nola will tell you.

Kelly must be talking to himself. Pitched a really great game against the Phils allowing only 3 hits in 5+, but got pulled and lost the game! The adage that solo homers don't kill you is dead. I'm wondering how strong the AZ pen is, cause they were none too yesterday - could be their weak spot.

Hoffman got his moment and looked strong again, ready for his next opportunity to pitch under pressure. Looked proud of the way he pitched, too, giving the mysterious Phils hand signal as he walked off.

IMHO, Kerkering is the strongest arm in the pen. On the mound, he is just oblivious to the world around him save the batter and catcher, a picture of concentration. He is forever near the black, and so gets to 3 -2 more than you'd like. One of the announcers said, "... has 'future closer' written all over him..." Big Rob must be getting ready to give him some responsibility. The Phils pen can close a game after 5. Hoping they don't NEED to, but it would be fun to watch.

Saw a shot of DD in the stands - looked like he was calmly reading texts. Some reporter was asking him several weeks ago why he thought the Phils might get into the playoffs and he answered by simply naming all the stars on this team that he built. The game yesterday was the kind of game many expected the Phils to play all year, just beating the other team into the field. Maybe we'll get a few more. The shots of the fans showed how wild and crazy CBP is these days. The announcers called it "a party", too.

How many minutes until game time?

[phan_since_93]

Who can explain why the D-Backs get 3 home games to our 2 in the ALCS, or did I read the schedule wrong? I thought we were the top WC seed.

[Sabin]

The NLCS is a best-of-seven series. So the Phillies, with home-field advantage, start off with the first two games; then Arizona has three; then it's back to Philly, if necessary, for the final two.

[tom81]

Who can explain why the D-Backs get 3 home games to our 2 in the ALCS

They only get more home games than we do if we beat them in 5
If we beat them in 4 or 6 we get the same.
If it goes 7 we get more home games.

[Patchmk88]

It isn't conceivable due to television and travel, but I've always preferred the 2-2-1-1-1 format in the postseason for a 7 game series in professional sports.

[andyb]

Baseball is an every day sport though. It really demands playoff formats with fewer off days more than basketball or hockey. I love the 3-game in one city wild card. Wonder if baseball should experiment with 1-4 or 2-5 formats to eliminate a potential off day in some series while preserving more games for the better team. Or at least plan travel with no day off after afternoon games.

One of the ways to give higher seeds more advantage would be to eliminate off days which help teams with less depth.

[BaseballCat]

Gosh I wish I lived closer to Phoenix- affordable tickets are abundant

[BostonRoss]

I think that MLB wants off days in series prior to the World Series so they can have more prime time games by staggering concurrent series

[Austinfan]

Stretching the season until the end of October almost guarantees bad weather in half the potential sites.