2023 Phillies/MLB Trade Deadline Speculation/Discussion

[allentown]

it's certainly not deep enough to say anyone is "blocked" right now - because no one is proven.

I don't understand that. Nobody is proven, until their 2nd or 3rd year in MLB, Certainly can't be proven as a minor leaguer. Can certainly be blocked. As far as blocked goes, the biggest decisions facing the Phillies short-term are the good fielding, young, unproven hitting OFs: Pache, Marsh (just about proven as hitter), Muzziotti, and Rojas. Rojas has been brought up, Muzziotti surely would have been, except he's blocked. Even if all are MLB-quality starters/4th OF/5th OF -- they can't keep all of them and can't delay the decision beyond a year from now. Guys far down the organization as OF prospects are far away and shouldn't influence this decision.

[Austinfan]

Outside of Marsh (who's maintained a plus .800 OPS and slightly above average defense), they need that year to evaluate the rest. Pache might be a keeper, but would you bet on him?

And it's obvious they have to get Schwarber and Castellanos off the field - they're so bad defensively that they're close to or below replacement value if they play the OF. So they have to figure out which young OFs can replace them and that's probably trial and error. It looks more and more like Harper may settle in at first, he was below average defensively before his injury and two years later probably isn't a good bet to be close to average in RF.

[California_Dreamin]

Callison...in response to what you wrote to me yesterday, here's my thing. Would I like to see the Phils acquire Bellinger? Sure. But at what price? Heredia? No. Abel? No. Crawford? No. Lee? No. McGarry? No. And if this makes me a Medieval monk, then so be it, I will join the said ranks. You offered no proposal other than prospects are overrated and to get someone like Bellinger, all offers are on the table. Again, no. I want an organization that challenges every year, not one that acts as if 2023 is the last year this team can get to the WS.

Which brings me to Noah Song. I will withhold complete evaluation of the DFA right now to see if he becomes part of a trade that nets the Phils some solid assets. But at first glance I completely disapprove of this move. He was a young talented asset that would have merely cost the team the 13th pitching spot on a 26 man roster, to me a small price to pay to see just where this hurler could be with an off season and next year in the minors under his belt.

I found it very ironic that on the same day that the Phils DFA Song they "sung" the praises of such erstwhile discarded hurlers, Marte and Hoffman. Clearly the Phils organization seems very capable of uncovering the potential of hurlers with good arms, precisely the definition of Song. Yet his potential seems so much more to me than either of them and certainly Covey, a guy they obviously like. So whats done is done and I trust DD enough to give him the benefit of the doubt.

That said, as a veteran of the "we must win now" eras of 1965-67 and 1982-84, two eras that both set the franchise back 10 years, I remain concerned when I sense that the Phils are sacrificing 2025-2030 in order to win in 2023-24. Short term gain is not worth long term pain to me.

[bkox]

I remain concerned when I sense that the Phils are sacrificing 2025-2030 in order to win in 2023-24. Short term gain is not worth long term pain to me.

I tend to agree with you on this but.. let me play devils advocate.

Would it be worth it if the Phillies win the world series this year? Or if they had won it last year?

How much future pain (if any) is a world series championship worth?

[bkox]

Mets and Rangers have agreed on a Max Scherzer trade but it is pending Scherzer’s approval

— Jon Heyman ( @JonHeyman ) July 29, 2023

Max Scherzer has just been informed of the agreed-upon trade to Texas. Ball is in his court.

— Jon Heyman ( @JonHeyman ) July 29, 2023

[allentown]

Well, here's the big question to me: with the Phillies current ownership and baseball-side management, what is the likelihood that going all in this year and next results in a lost decade, as we had after 2011. The Phillies have already borrowed from the future for last year and this year: lost draft picks and bonus $ internationally for FAs, an albatross contract for Castellanos, minor leaguers traded, butting up against lux tax limit. How much more is prudent? I think the answer depends upon how fast one thinks the organization can return to contention when nearly full rebuild required after next season if we go full in.this year and next. It looks like the Phillies have enough today to get to post-season.

I'm uninterested in WC bragging rights. I go season-by-season: was it competitive enough to be enjoyable? How many post-season games did I get to watch? Last season was memorable. We played as many post-season games as any team. We didn't quite win it all, but I'm okay with that. It would have been a little more fun had we won it all, but that was just one game. The 2008-2011 experience convinced me that additions to team not a high likelihood of carrying you deeper into post-season. 2009-11 was a more veteran team with more stars than 2008, but the home-grown kids did well by us in 2008. Pence and Halladay were huge additions, but didn't take us as far as the 2008 team did. I think too old of a roster becomes problematic.

Frankly, I'm too old for another decade-long dark ages of Phillies baseball. Give me steady post-season trips.

[zambonir]

Yeah for me the only reason the pain of 2015-2019 wasn't worth it is because they didn't win a second World Series, or even advance to one between 2010 and 2013 or 2014. But they made so many other mistakes both before and during the rebuild to get to that decade-long dry spell. I don't think they are making them this time. And I still wouldn't want to give back the memories of the Halladay and Lee years.

And the money also helps. The Monty/Amaro Phillies couldn't or wouldn't spend money to make up for the cratering of Halladay, Lee and Howard towards the end of that core's run, nor keep Werth along with Howard, even if they did put too much into that core for too long. The only big free agent they signed as things began go fade merely replaced Madson, and then they traded Vic and Pence to get under the luxury tax and tried to fill holes with guys like Ben Revere and Delmon Young before taking one last shot with the likes of AJ Burnett and Michael Young

Whereas this regime heading into 2020 signed Zach Wheeler as Arrieta was winding down, and also Didi. That would ahve been the year they could have gone into rebuild mode, of course.

[zambonir]

Well, here's the big question to me: with the Phillies current ownership and baseball-side management, what is the likelihood that going all in this year and next results in a lost decade, as we had after 2011. The Phillies have already borrowed from the future for last year and this year: lost draft picks and bonus $ internationally for FAs, an albatross contract for Castellanos, minor leaguers traded, butting up against lux tax limit. How much more is prudent? I think the answer depends upon how fast one thinks the organization can return to contention when nearly full rebuild required after next season if we go full in.this year and next. It looks like the Phillies have enough today to get to post-season.

Frankly, I'm too old for another decade-long dark ages of Phillies baseball. Give me steady post-season trips.

I was kind of answering that same question as you were asking it. I don't think this team is headed for any dark ages until the end of the Harper contract. They have the talent, acumen and money to continue going year-to-year with maybe one or two seasons of retooling. Never a full rebuild.

Unless it did go completely pear-shaped like it did in 2012. Like, let's say they re-sign Nola (and heck, just for exaggeration, Hoskins too), and then have an injury-ridden, losing season in 2025. I believe they'd start trading guys (even Wheeler, if he'd been re-signed as well as that point), not doubling down. But they will also have the $ and players to reboot after just one year (or even just one off-season). The last two years of Nick's contract won't stop the Phillies from spending more $ any more than Kingery's contract did (yes, it's twice as much money but the Phillies are that much less thrifty now).

The whole "decade of darkness" thing is a bit overstated because that decade really fell into three different parts that, while related, were by no means the same. The foolish and futile three years of still trying to win (2013 to mid-2015), the well-intentioned but ultimately even more futile tanking (mid-2015 to 2018 with the caveat that they should still been taking in 2018) and the failure to actually win from 2019-2021 (which is on the GM and the manager and the free agents as well as the failed prospects acquired by both draft and trade - but doesn't really trace back to the poor drafts and lost prospects of 2009-2011).

[bkox]

Phillies, who are looking for a bat, are here scouting Adam Duvall.

— Pete Abraham ( @PeteAbe ) July 29, 2023

[bkox]

Max Scherzer will waive his no-trade clause to go to the Texas Rangers, sources tell me and @SteveGelbs . However, the trade is NOT complete, according to a source. There are other issues to work through, not on the players being exchanged but on the financial side.

— Andy Martino ( @martinonyc ) July 29, 2023

[phillychuck]

Back to the Bellinger conversation. If I expected Bellinger to continue playing the way he has thus far this season I'd be willing to make a trade, but he's probably very likely to regress to the mean of his production over the last few years, which isn't that much better than what would be expected from Cave or Clemens or Hall. This is probably not relevant since the Cubs are streaking and won't be selling.

[Callison]

CD... I see you know the prospects and I respect your opinion that you don't like the Bellinger rental well enough to part with some of them. It was clear the Medieval monks killed themselves?

I have said I don't know the prospects, but they are players that MAY develop some day. OTOH, Bellinger is playing about All Star level ball. He would be the best hitter the Phils have. If the Phils could make that deal described, I wouldn't think twice about losing those two prospects. The Phils should be so lucky. The Marlins also covet Bellinger, among others, and even if they really don't want to be in the bidding for him, the Phils have to make anybody else pay.

I have said I can't begin to understand you guys standing on the brakes on this deal and in the fraternal spirit that Philly is so well known for, I renew the offer counseling to bring you and into the light. I hold forth at selected Northern California sports bars.

But, just as it got exciting, the Cubs went on a winning streak and it looks like they will double down on the team they have, so the argument is moot.

My other proposal is Hader. The Phils could have an all world pen... close games in the 6th! Another rental, but an impact player, and he would make the Phils instantly a level stronger.

I asked for the RH OFs the board liked and nobody answered except some guy who thought he was on the A's board. Lipinski has 5 picks and to me, only Gruchik (sp - Colo) is at all interesting - in fact, he's exciting, nearly half as exciting as Bellinger. You can tell he's a solid player 'cause the Yanks want him, but then they want everything they see.

Regarding the pitching, Marte looks for all the world like he can pitch. Another guy with a good heater, which the Phils love, but he's had his troubles. Seems to somehow end up pitching with 2 men on a lot. I've nearly forgiven Hoffman for losing the Braves game. He's also had some good moments recently. I'm OK with those two. But I will spend the season hoping Covey and Vasquez get moved.

I wonder what DD will do. Nearly everybody is still waiting for the pressure to peak. It's peaking.

[zambonir]

I don't know why you think he's likely to regress as opposed to just thinking he has finally returned to form (and health). He may not even regress for the next 2-3 years - he only just turned 28!

I'm still not that interested since he is LH and a rental. I'd consider him as a free agent over Hoskins or some 30 year-old OF (and certainly over Cave, Clemens or Hall) though. Not for a long deal obviously.

[Aquapong]

If we’re going to make a playoff run, Cave, Harrison, and maybe Sanchez don’t have a place on the team.

Sanchez is pitching well, but he’s pitching way below his bb9 average. It’s cool he’s having a good month, but there’s no one there in case of injury right now anyway.

Cave is most easily replaced with Muzziotti. A RH hitting infielder that can actually hit would be valuable. I know people want a RH OF’er to kind of fill both needs, but I wouldn’t give up huge resources just for that.

[zambonir]

What makes you think Muzziotti's AAA production will translate to MLB any better than Cave's? (And I assume you mean LH OF).

I certainly do hope Harrison is replaced by the new RHB (who will still be an OF). If so Cave could technically stay, or they could give Muzziotti a look (but only if he's not traded). It is actually too bad Pache and Rojas are both RHBs because that not only makes them redundant for now but not needed as frequently. But whatever RHB they trade for is not going to be a platoon player.

I disagree about Sanchez. If no one else gets hurt in the rotation he's more than fine, and this year's version of Kyle Gibson or Thor won't necessarily be better (and in both of those cases the rotation was thinner ahead of the #5 spot). He won't start a playoff game. He might still help in the bullpen.

Last year they also still ran bullpen games and got some big starts from Falter. Falter himself could in fact return, or Nelson, for spot starts.

[bkox]

Scherzer deal to Texas for Luisangel Acuna has hit an impasse. While Scherzer was willing to waive his no-trade he hasn't agreed to turn the 2024 part of his deal from an option for $43.33M into a guarantee for $43.33M. (Wants to retain his optionality).

— Jon Heyman ( @JonHeyman ) July 30, 2023

[zambonir]

I can understand him just wanting to control his future but he sure as heck isn't going to get more money. And if I were Texas I wouldn't mind that much! Seems like they'd be using it more as leverage with the Mets (i.e. we only want to give this up for a year+ of Scherzer, not Scherzer as a rental, give us something back).

[bkox]

For those that dont know.. Luisangel Acuna is Ronald Acuna's younger brother.. means both Acuna could be in the NL East if this goes through

[bkox]

Um...

Scherzer deal is now complete. He’s a Ranger

— Jon Heyman ( @JonHeyman ) July 30, 2023

2nd source

Star right-hander Max Scherzer has been traded from the New York Mets to the Texas Rangers, sources familiar with the situation tell ESPN. The deal is done.

— Jeff Passan ( @JeffPassan ) July 30, 2023

[zambonir]

A guy after our own heart (well, some of us).

Mets' Tommy Pham knows his value on the trade market: 'My wRC is way up'

“If this team decides to sell, I have different value than I did a year ago,” Pham said before Thursday’s game and ahead of New York becoming a seller. “I’ve outperformed my contract already in terms of FanGraphs value. I know all the metrics and I know where I stand because I am using that to try and better my game.”