2023 Phillies/MLB Trade Deadline Speculation/Discussion

[bkox]

The Cubs understandably are said to be rethinking their earlier inclination to sell thanks to a 6-game winning streak that has lifted them to .500 and 4 out for the Wild Card. That could remove two key pieces — Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman — from the trade market.

— Jon Heyman ( @JonHeyman ) July 29, 2023

[zambonir]

Go Cubs

(Personally if I was a fan of theirs I would still want them to sell. They are the 2018 Phillies.)

[RolenRules]

LOL Z, I guess you don't want the Phillies in a bidding war for Bellinger.

[allentown]

It truly is a sellers market this year. A steep price in both of these deals for some fairly average players.

Some very aggressive teams have made their play. Likely other guys left, with reduced and less aggressive bidders, from here to deadline.

[zambonir]

I don't really believe they're interested, but yes, you read that right (even if tongue was slightly in cheek). I am by no means someone who wants to protect "the kids" at all costs, but not for rentals.

Maybe Dombrowski will surprise us (as with Marsh), maybe the market will (as with Thor) but the Phillies are in good shape, IMO. They were never going to go crazy and the market is probably guaranteeing they won't. They can still get what they need (a RHB OF, an extra arm or two) no problem. I hope the moves they make get them to the 4th seed, which a much easier schedule should also help with.

But no matter what you do at the deadline nothing is guaranteed, whether you are a 100-win team or a team that went big at the deadline - just ask the Mets and Dodgers and Padres and Braves last year - once the actual playoffs start.

[Austinfan]

I see the same issue at the NHL trade deadline, while it's easier to integrate newcomers in baseball, you're talking marginal upgrades - but the key to winning championships is generally be very competitive for an extended periods and hope the Baseball Gods smile upon you (see the Braves). The idea that if we get into the playoffs anything can happen is akin to drawing to an inside straight, you will win once in a while, but a gambler who makes a habit of that is soon broke.

[zambonir]

Recent history and the new wild card era especially says otherwise. Any team in baseball can win a series against a better team at any time in the season - and the playoffs aren't very different in the first two rounds. Modern pitching being what it is, one bad day for a single pitcher (as with the Cardinals and the Braves against us last year) can cost you a shorter series, while a few good days for a decent bullpen can win you one.

At the same time, if you are a wild card caliber team that has two really good starters you always have a chance to far. The Phillies are still one of those teams. That's not a longshot gamble.

[Austinfan]

Of course it's a long shot, how many teams are in the playoffs, what are the odds that marginal teams advance?
1993 should be the template for what not to do, be fooled by the one season where everything went right.

I think last season was similar for this team, an 85-90 win team got hot at the right time, but a 95 win team doesn't have to get as hot (i.e. has a much better chance at a long run). Phillies have bet on age and money and it looks like a losing bet - decimating a still thin farm system isn't a good idea if you want to stay competitive over the long run.

[allentown]

Of course, it's a long-shot gamble. What you're saying is it's a gamble which can be won, which is true of all real gambles. The wildcard teams do have a more difficult time than the top division winners. Even if the odds were equal, that's one chance in 6 to reach the WS. I think, being realistic, that a wildcard team has less than one chance in ten of reaching the WS. If, as you say, any team which reaches the playoffs has a chance to get hot and win, as the Phillies did last season, then adding a rental vet doesn't make a huge difference in your odds. Either you're hot and have at least two top starters and a closer, or you don't. I'm with Austinfan on this one: the best chance of going to a WS is to be consistently good and make it to the playoffs every year for an extended period. That means protecting your minor leaguers who will become MLB players. That requires not grasping and giving up real young talent every time you have a shot at the playoffs. That;s especially true for a thin-farm team like the Phillies, which regularly weakens the minors by lost draft picks and international bonus money in order to sign free agents who received QOs. You can still trade guys who won't make it for autumn help. The big issue here is being able to self-scout your own minor leaguers better than the other teams can scout them. Thus far, not much evidence that we are good at that.

[zambonir]

How are they decimating the farm system? It seems pretty clear they will only part with a few pieces from the middle in their areas of greatest depth and the biggest piece they traded last year was for someone who immediately became the youngest player on the roster.

I will grant you the Turner signing looks like a mistake right now, simply because they could have left Stott at SS and filled 2B short-term easily, but he's still got some good years left in him. And they knew when they signed Schwarber and Castellanos that the last 1-2 years of the deals would be poor value. But that moment hasn't come yet.

[zambonir]

The big issue here is being able to self-scout your own minor leaguers better than the other teams can scout them. Thus far, not much evidence that we are good at that.

I dunno, they seemed to do okay with Sixto Sanchez and Spencer Howard. Neither of them were for rentals (and neither was O'Hoppe), which is a crucial distinction.

[BostonRoss]

Even if a wild card team has only a one in ten chance of making the World Series, I’d think that a minor prospect like De La Cruz has a smaller probability of making a difference in the major leagues.

[andyb]

Ben Brown of course is the cautionary tale most people point too, but that trade was fair. Robertson was in the middle of a very good year and was very useful to us, especially since he came in when some of the bullpen was on the IL if I recall. He ran out of gas in October, but he still pitched major innings even though Dominguez and Alvarado had passed him.

Brown also has gotten better this year. He was not close to a top 100 prospect last year. He was in a breakout year, but it was really his first good year and there were many questions about his performance. Like it or not, other teams are unlikely to ask for prospects having bad years. They all are going to ask for Orion Kerkering and Hao Yu Lee if we are adamant about not trading our top 5 prospects (the 3 pitchers plus Crawford and Miller who we can't trade anyway).

We may not have gotten to the World Series without David Robertson. It was a good trade for both teams.

[allentown]

And they knew when they signed Schwarber and Castellanos that the last 1-2 years of the deals would be poor value. But that moment hasn't come yet.

Hasn't it. For last season and up-to-present on this season, we have a total of 2.6 bWAR from Schwarber and Castellanos combined, for a total cost of $90 million through end of this season, so probably $75 million as of today. Beyond that, signing both (I'm fine with the initial Schwarber signing) gives us an unbalanced lineup/defense. Castellanos has looked sufficiently cooked both years that I suspect it will be 3 years of very poor value on his contract. He looks like he swings at so many bad pitches because he needs to start his swing early to have a chance at good fastballs.

[allentown]

I’d think that a minor prospect like De La Cruz has a smaller probability of making a difference in the major leagues.

I'd trade DelaCruz.

[zambonir]

I was with you in never liking the Castellanos signing. Didn't make sense paired with Schwarber and even less so in that he got an extra year. But that wasn't a philosophical error of not adding $/veterans. That was just picking the wrong guy (and Dombrowski being blinded by his fondness of the player, which our previous Hall of Fame GM/president wasn't immune to either. Sometimes that works out, sometimes it doesn't).

I think with the path the team has chosen and the bar Middleton has set, Schwarber and Castellanos will be benched/traded/released a lot sooner than they would have been in the '90s or 2010s. That's the other big difference these days.

[zambonir]

Matt seems to think De La Cruz is more worthy of keeping than some

https://twitter.com/Matt_Winkelman/status/1684942111194456065

[allentown]

Matt certainly knows better than we do. I worry that his size is going to be exploited by pitchers. I agree that under Middleton, the Phillies are going to, and absolutely should, have enough FA to float right around the lux tax cap -- some years below to re-set, others above I think we need lux tax room for Nola and another pitcher. This is when Castellanos' contract bites. We are at the point cap-wise, where we desperately need some cheap rookies to contribute.

[BostonRoss]

I highly respect Matt’s knowledge, too. My personal willingness to see De La Cruz traded is not based on him being “blocked.” And I would trade him only if it significantly helps the team. I do think his upside is less than several other outfielders/first basemen in the system.

[Austinfan]

Here's the problem, all these prospects are a year to two years away from being at the point where you can make a good evaluation. Which means you need "safety in numbers." That's different than a 2B prospect who might be blocked by Stott for the next five years, one reason O'Hoppe for Marsh made sense, a blocked prospect for another player at a similar age at a position of need. But the Phillies farm simply isn't deep enough to trade prospects for rentals - it's certainly not deep enough to say anyone is "blocked" right now - because no one is proven.

Crawford might be a future all star or burn out in AAA, Muzzioti might be an artifact of the automatic K zone or finally coming into his own after missing parts of 3 seasons, and so on. But we're not LA, where we trade a bunch of prospects and have two others to replace them and a solid ML lineup.