2023 Phillies/MLB Trade Deadline Speculation/Discussion

[zambonir]

Listen, they are in an impossible position. They've got a winning record and a positive run differential, they're only four games out and as we know firsthand anything can happen if you get in. They also already added two players (Escobar and Moustakas) earlier this month. If they were to white-flag it, it is probably time to move on from Trout too (since Rendon is a bust, and Tyler Anderson - remember him? - so far too). And trading Ohtani would be a PR disaster.

But losing him for draft picks would be too, with even more assets gone because of being "buyers" to boot. They are also one of seven teams chasing three spots and you still gotta think the AL East #2 and the Astros get two of them. The race will probably be a little less crowded on August 1 but the only way this works out for them really is if they make the playoffs and then re-sign both Ohtani and Giolito.

[Callison]

The Angels don't have a good move to make. As a fan, I prefer this long shot rather than the trade - to go all in and hope for the best.

If they did the trade, they might have an empty stadium for the rest of the season and longer. IMHO, they should have been trying a lot harder before now, the last second.

[VoteForKalas]

FWIW, Bowden proposes a Phillies - Cubs trade of Carlos De La Cruz & Gabriel Rincones Jr. for Bellinger

Article

If folks cannot get to it due to the subscription wall, here is a short excerpt pertaining to Bellinger's value to the Phillies

Bellinger is the front-runner for NL Comeback Player of the Year. He’s having a resurgence this season on the North Side of Chicago, slashing .314/.360/.545 with 15 home runs, 12 stolen bases and a 141 OPS+. He plays above-average defense at several positions and would fit nicely on the Phillies as he could share first base, left field and DH with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. He would be the final position piece needed for the Phillies to get back to the playoffs.

[flyers19rw]

I can see why Bowden is a former GM. That’s too much talent to give up for rental with a shaky past couple of seasons

[zambonir]

Matt's mid-season prospect rankings also addresses each guy's tradeability.

Phillies 2023 Midseason Prospect Ranking and Trade Thoughts

Abel & Crawford would only be for something big/unexpected ("close to a star" in Crawford's case). McGarry only for a non-rental SP or impact bat.

But here's De La Cruz:

Deadline Thoughts: De La Cruz is not currently on the 40 man roster and would be a minor league free agent after the season if not added. The Phillies have moved that type of player in trades, especially if they aren’t able to help the big league club. However, De La Cruz should be in AAA next season and at minimum offers interesting redundancy with his ability to play first and all three outfield positions. He has such a unique profile and upside that trade talks with him could involve a team loving him or undervaluing him. If a team loves him and it gets a deal done, the Phillies probably could move him, but the Phillies might be the team that values him the most.

And Muzziotti:

Simon Muzziotti is on his last option year and plays the exact position as a core major league player (LH CF), making him the most logical trade candidate in the system. He does not have the most trade value because of the roster situation, but he might be good enough to get some sort of rental.

[zambonir]

You would think, but the Angels just gave up 2 of their top 3 prospects for a rental starter and reliever throw-in. Granted neither of them are probably ranked that high in a better organization but you could say the same about our guys past the first three or four.

I think they still prefer a RHB though. And Bellinger's ability to play 1B is hardly relevant, all that would do is put Schwarber back in the OF on those days (unless Bryce actually starts playing RF but then you have to put Nick in LF).

[Jazzhead]

I think they still prefer a RHB though.

That preference doesn't necessarily disqualify Bellinger. This year, Cody's batting .296 against righties, and .344 against lefties. For his career, he's batting .259 against righties and .243 against lefties. If we can afford to sign him, I think Bellinger's an ideal "get".

[zambonir]

Batting average doesn't tell any story there and but especially neither does single-season splits. Bellinger's career OPS against LHP is .772. It's .853 against RHP.

It is true that he is off-the-charts against LHP this year (OPS over 1,000) but that is also probably outlier/luck (his BABIP is much higher against them, and it's a bit high against RHP too). Thomson is not going to make his line-up based on that, nor will opposing managers pick their relievers based on it. They need an actual RHB to compensate for what is missing (both from Hoskins being gone and from the hitters are are still in the line-up).

But mostly they won't overpay for him if he doesn't quite fit what they want. If the price for him is exactly the same as one of the less productive RHBs, sure, it's worth considering. But it likely won't be, given the combination of brand name, performance and salary.

[andyb]

I think I just want to focus any offensive additions on a right-handed power bat that can take the Harrison roster spot.

I'd probably lean towards a bullpen addition too, especially if they can pitch a second inning. Over getting a 6th starter. I did see they floated Strahm as an emergency starter too which makes me think shoring up the bullpen with depth is a good idea since I am not fully sold on either Seranthony or Alvarado returning to lights out form. The extra pitcher in September (especially if we add a bullpen arm) will help us get through bullpen games if we have to.

[Jazzhead]

But we face RHPs more frequently than LHPs, and next year (if we could sign him), Bellinger would be great at first base against righties with Harper back where he usually plays in the outfield. And if we were to sign Hoskins, he could play first against lefties with Bellinger spelling him for defense late in games, and DH on other days.

A great player for a position of need is valuable notwithstanding the transitory merits of right or left handedness.

[andyb]

We need it more against LHP though. And if the right-handed bat is good enough (like Pham) then they can play against some right-handed pitchers too.

I think the price for Bellinger might also be more than that trade request. I also think Cave is a 750 OPS bat against RHP in a larger sample with decent defense. Bellinger is the flashy move, but his defense in LF wastes a little of his value (unless we start sitting Castellanos more and then we are probably out of the playoffs anyway....).

I agree with others too that we should hold onto our better prospects. We just don't have a whole lot of depth. Trading Muzziotti makes sense and a couple of others below the top 10-15 but that is it.

[julio]

But we face RHPs more frequently than LHPs, and next year (if we could sign him), Bellinger would be great at first base against righties with Harper back where he usually plays in the outfield. And if we were to sign Hoskins, he could play first against lefties with Bellinger spelling him for defense late in games, and DH on other days.

You would have to find room for Bellinger, Harper, Hoskins, Castellanos, and Schwarber. That's five very expensive starting bats, for four positions.

Realistically, if they rent Bellinger, they can re-sign one of Bellinger or Hoskins next year, but not both. Bellinger would give them more flexibility, but he's likely to be quite expensive (he just turned 28, so will be officially playing at 28 next year, which would make him a very attractive FA looking at a long contract). Rhys is three years older, and limited to IB/DH, and would not be as expensive.

[zambonir]

If Bellinger agreed to exercise his mutual option as a condition of the trade that would be something to consider. But then you'd also have to wonder if he's going to crater again. I'd just leave all that to next year (along with potentially shedding Castellanos or Schwarber) if they were actually interested in him (or re-signing Hoskins).

It's true that you always face more RHP but the Phillies LHBs aren't disappointing at the same level as the RHBs (Schwarber a bit obviously, but not Stott or Harper or Marsh. Whereas JT and Turner are scuffling, and even Nick is in a post-All Star slump. Bohm is good obviously but but collectively none of them have filled the Hoskins hole. Whoever they get won't either but it will give Thomson more options when we get to the pennant race and playoff games.

[Callison]

IF .312 Bellinger becomes available, there will be competition, plenty of competition. But I would hope the Phils go in it to win it. I get the resistance from folks who think a lot of the Phils' prospects, but Bellinger could be season changing. "The future is now." George Allen

[Patchmk88]

I would Bellinger if we needed a LH bat, but I really think we need a RH guy.

[allentown]

The future isn't now. We've recently experienced a horrible decade, at least partially caused by such thinking.

[zambonir]

Trade deadline deals just aren't season-changing, generally. Heck, signing Trea Turner and Zach Wheeler (originally) weren't season-changing!

It's about making the team just a little bit better. And about the right fit. The acquisition costs and the salary matter too, but only relative to what the team needs. If Bellinger was a RHB they'd give up more for him (or at least take on his salary). If he was controllable they'd give up more for him. And if the Phillies were contenders for a division title they might give up more for him. But the when the "plenty of competition" you note has both better minor league systems and stronger changes of being one of the top 2 seeds, it will be hard to outbid them. Fortunately, just like last year, the Phillies don't need the best guys on the market, just the right ones for their roster.

The future is now though. The goal does have to be WS every year for at least a couple of years. Then Harper and Turner and Stott might have to experience one or two down years before there is the right combo of homegrown players and new free agents. By the time that happens Bohm and Marsh might be gone. Sure, they could also have a Mets-like season next year and go into fire sale mode. But this year they are right there again. And the wild card era is also different. It was folly to try and keep winning in 2014 (and arguably 2013) but it certainly isn't this year and next year. There's no indication Dombrowski plans to sell out the farm for the now anyway. He finds the middle ground.

[allentown]

No, the future is 5-10 years from now and if we don't protect the farm and keep making the team older, that future could be as grim as the recent dark ages. I also have two concerns for the now: I think youthful energy is necessary for team morale and now that the Phillies have been winning a lot more than they've been losing, adding a player can mess with the developed team chemistry. I watched the 2009-2012 Phillies add a lot of talent from what got the 2008 team to the WS and perform progressively worse in the post-season.

[Callison]

If the Phils sign Bellinger, I'll have to consider moving to Philly to scalp tickets.

I don't know the minors at all so I have no idea how good these players that might be traded are. But, GZ, they're minor leaguers - we're not even talking about trading a ML starter - and some of you are saying you won't trade them for a .300 hitter with power? Who can understand you?

The financial burden argument doesn't even slow the Yanks and Dodgers down. I understand the Phils have financial limits, but if Bellinger becomes available, it's time to stretch. After he wins a WS in Philly he might, want to continue the party. I'm here for you guys that don't know how to dream.

I'll be ill if the Phil's trade for some RH, .265 OF. Which RH OF look good to anybody? Too bad Cave hasn't hasn't had more PT to prove himself. Seems he was tearing up AAA. He's sure just showed the desire and might be a ML hitter.

But the most exciting trades that the Phils could make would be to get another really strong closer. Hader from SD would be perfect. Imagine having the arms to close a game after 5 innings??? Let it happen.

[California_Dreamin]

Callison..had to laugh a bit at what you just wrote, especially considering your on line name. As I have mentioned often Johnny Callison was my favorite all time player and a great right fielder for 5 years [62-66.] He was mentioned in the same breath during that time with fellow right fielders, Maris, Colavito, Kaline, Frank Robinson, Clemente, Aaron and Billy Williams. Most HOFers and all great. Yes, he was that good.

But I can imagine a White Sox fan in 1960 saying when it was rumored that the ChiSox could acquire slugger Gene Freese from the Phillies for a young unknown minor leaguer named Johnny Callison. Afterall. he was just a minor leaguer. I am with allentown on this one and I absolutely love Bellinger and understand how he would help.

That said, after far too many years in the minor league wilderness, I can finally see some light, not enough to power up a night baseball game but certainly enough to understand I have NO desire to sacrifice tomorrow for a brief today. I follow the minors closely and there is a reason that organizationally the pharm clubs are about 50 games over .500. Young talent. I am all for a trade or two, and trust that DD will make a couple, probably this weekend. But I do not want to see those 2 for 1 deals that cost the Phils two solid future performers for a guy who will say sayonara in two months.

There is no dominant team in the NL this year and should the Phils get there and are healthy they will be able to stand toe to toe with any team. I can live with that much more than I can watching Moniak hitting .333 and batting cleanup while Synndegard is long gone.