2023 MLB Draft Speculation

zambonir 2023-06-23 17:24:52 UTC #101

The rules don't include a hard spending cap. Teams can spend whatever they want in the draft -- and, as a matter of fact, there is an amount a team could spend where the penalties would be worth it.

If you're interested in the nitty gritty, Jeff Passan wrote about this concept four years ago when these draft rules were still new in the previous CBA. The basic idea is that if a team goes 15% over its draft pool, it would lose its next two first round picks. I'll go into more detail below on what a haul could look like if a team was willing to spend far over its pool amount, but the broad strokes would be a team with one of the lowest draft pools landing seven or so players who landed between roughly 15 and 60 on its internal version of my rankings -- let's call it one or two players in the 15-to-30 range then five or six more in the top 60. They'd likely come heavily from the high school class where team-by-team evaluations can vary greatly outside of the top tier of players (and where such shenanigans are more feasible than with college players).

Scouts and execs from a number of teams have told me their clubs talk about doing it every year, but it never gets taken seriously by the GM and/or owner. This might be the year it's worth taking that leap.

There's a couple key reasons this idea came up in conversations with scouts this spring. First, and simply enough: This is the best draft in about a decade, so you'll get a little more bang for your buck. On top of that, the strength of this year's class is prep position players slotted in the late first- to second-round range. That matters here because prep players are easier to move down the board due to bonus demands associated with college leverage. Also, because they aren't pitchers, these players come with more universal trade value if you're enacting this strategy for a quicker return via trade. Lastly, next year's draft (i.e. one of the picks you'd lose in the penalty) doesn't look particularly great, so teams could think of it as a reallocation of draft resources, pulling the future into the present.

Squire 2023-06-26 15:57:30 UTC #102

Kiley McDaniel has a new mock up but I do not have an ESPN Insider subscription

andyb 2023-06-26 16:26:19 UTC #103

George Lombard Jr. HS shortstop and son of.

The Phillies like to take a swing on prep players with their first pick -- to solid results of late -- and Lombard figures to go in this area. He has the highest universal approval rating of the remaining prep infielders.

andyb 2023-06-29 12:48:28 UTC #104

Keith Law is another mock vote for Charlee Soto.

Squire 2023-06-29 13:14:10 UTC #105

Relevant quote -

The Phillies have been linked to him as well as some hard-throwing college arms.

fish 2023-07-01 21:21:01 UTC #106

He brings up a super interesting name though in the Phillies neck of the daft- 6’2” LSU righty Ty Floyd- fastball 94-97 with elite life and sometimes very good control but not very good secondaries. Slider didn’t look bad to me- it’s at least something to work with. 90 innings, 120 k, smooth delivery. I could be convinced that the Phils can teach him the rest.

andyb 2023-07-06 13:09:53 UTC #107

Keith Law final top 100 (plus another article with 31 more).

ESPN top 300:

Fox Sports Mock (Phillies - Thomas White LHP)

Good Phight summary of Phillies mock picks:

Draft is Sunday night on ESPN and MLB Network.

Squire 2023-07-06 17:42:13 UTC #108

Drafting late in the first and not having 2nd or 5th rounders has muted my usual obsessiveness a little this year. From a system needs perspective, I could live with a 3B or a Catcher but to me this draft should be VERY pitching heavy. I feel good about our current collection of Middle infielders, corner OFs, CFs.

andyb 2023-07-06 18:30:03 UTC #109

Hopefully they take the best player available but I would not be shocked if they go HS pitching again. That does seem a high risk way to get high value late in the round and guys like White and Soto do offer the high end projection they covet.

Agree that it is really hard to get excited reading mock drafts for the 27th pick where there is so much more variation at that point in the round than in the drafts for all the other major sports/

zambonir 2023-07-06 18:45:27 UTC #110

But I seem to recall reading that they consider it a fairly deep draft, where pick 20 might be as good as pick 40. Which is a double-edged sword I suppose.

It's hard enough to expect even a good first-round pick to produce a future star or even everyday player so on this one I'd settle for just, a major-leaguer. Or, given they have no second-rounder, a Wilson, Kingery, Howard (even if those all seem like imperfect examples).

andyb 2023-07-06 18:50:40 UTC #111

It is more like we have one shot in this draft to get a high end player and we know any player with a high ceiling who lasts till 27 is by definition very risky. Deeper draft is good, but that just means we have a slightly better shot at getting what we want.

With 2 missing picks and the smallest pool, this is close to a 1-player draft for us. One shot at a high end player. Then fill out the roster with safer college picks and relievers with the potential to add velocity.

fish 2023-07-06 19:09:31 UTC #112

Someone is going to be available who is going to be a very good player- and hopefully it's the Phillies who figure that out. That's the fun of the draft.

I'm ready to declare the the Phillies overhaul of their minor league hitting program has been a success. They drafted players who have hit right away (Crawford, Boyd, Ricketts and to some extent Rincones and Rincon), and some of the guys they needed to see either take a step forward or continue to improve, have (Muzziotti, De La Cruz, Sang, Martin, Simmons, Wingrove, Wilson)...now if only they could get Viars to figure it out. Not much big impact talent after Crawford, and that's where the international program really has to step up and help out.

Oddly now pitching development has taken a small step back with Painter, Abel, McGarry, and Baker kind of spinning their wheels. Kierkering, Pan, and McFarlane (who i guess is on the Phillies mid-summer break plan) were nice additions last year but it feels like they need to add another high quality arm along with the pipeline of depth to keep it flowing in the right direction.

I'd say they need to take more than 1 high school arm this year too, but that's hard to do when you lose the early picks and bonus space to be able to pay them.

Squire 2023-07-07 13:36:17 UTC #113

FanGraphs Mock Draft with good comments

Squire 2023-07-07 15:29:38 UTC #114

Mayo Mock last night gives us OF Chase Davis from University of Arizona and says that industry believes he's our guy if he's there at 27. Consistent with Longenhagen comment at Fangraphs

SQUIRE

fish 2023-07-07 15:41:10 UTC #115

I would be pretty happy with Chase Davis - his development has progressed exponentially from a really raw starting point kind of like Hunter Renfroe did.

Yohandy Morales doesn't feel like a Barber pick- the tools are, the swing and miss criticism he gets is not (which i wonder how accurate that criticism is this year after having hit .400).

andyb 2023-07-07 17:08:07 UTC #116

Keith Law has us with Chase Davis also today:

Here is the MLB mock.

ESPN with the Chase Davis trifecta:

fish 2023-07-07 19:50:16 UTC #117

Baseball America podcast gives us Thomas White with interest in Chase Davis but a typical emphasis on best player available.

andyb 2023-07-07 19:58:11 UTC #118

So the consensus "guys we are in on" are Chase Davis, Thomas White, and Charlee Soto. Who should we want?

fish 2023-07-07 21:27:41 UTC #119

For whatever it’s worth, I’d be way more excited for the Davis pick than what I had to talk myself into when Haseley and Moniak were picked. White would be a fun pick as well.

allentown 2023-07-07 21:39:16 UTC #120

Ironically, being out of the Phillies organization for the first full season, Moniak is on a SSS tear. Could he be a case of poor development vs poor scouting? Gillick was in love with his swing. The Phillies certainly spent more time thinking over their plans for that draft than any other. The #1 pick allowed them control of the draft board.