2023 MLB Draft Speculation

[andyb]

2022 MLB Draft Speculation

I cannot believe that these clowns are at risk of picking 32nd in the 2023 MLB Draft

Need to split this into a 2023 draft thread [Mod’s note: Done.] but I saw this comment and wanted to point out that we are picking 27th now. Mets and Dodgers have their picks drop 10 spots so we jump ahead now.

And the MLB.com mock. Has us going HS 1B/RHP Bryce Eldridge saying he has more upside hitting than pitching. Really early of course.

Here's Pipeline's first full 2023 mock draft

[Squire]

At 27 I'd probably focus on a HS arm that fell 10 slots because teams fear the HS arm profile. I am buoyed by our recent success in this area.

[andyb]

We're number 30! In draft pool size unfortunately. Picking next to last and losing a pick = small draft pool. $5.185 million total.

Assigned pick values are up 9.9% for the @MLBDraft compared to 2022. The @Pirates ' No. 1 overall pick comes with a record value of $9,721,000 & their total pool of $16,185,700 is the third-largest since the bonus-pool era started in 2012. Story coming soon. Team-by-team pools: pic.twitter.com/Wt9CQYxzCR

— Jim Callis ( @jimcallisMLB ) April 5, 2023

[julio]

Yeah. Minor correction: we’re losing two picks (2nd and 5th), due to the Turner signing.

[fish]

30th in money but at least they get bumped up to pick #27.

[Squire]

I've already decided I want a high ceiling pitcher in the 1st.

[fish]

I've already decided I want a high ceiling pitcher in the 1st.

In my perfect world high school lhp Thomas White would be there for them. Short of that, I think I'd like one of those fancy hard throwing college pitchers like Gavin Williams in 2021. Cambell RPH Cade Keuhler probably has the best stuff of someone who would be available in the range, but i've never seen someone throw a baseball like this - like, without any extension. So either he's a unicorn, or about to blow.
https://twitter.com/armsrepublic_/status/1611779213035438081?s=20

Texas RHP Tanner Witt is interesting, but I wonder how well a curve that big plays against better hitters- seems like it would be easy to pick up out of his hand.
https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1498300887890071561?s=20

Though in recent years there has been a flux of high school short stops picked in the #20s that are super interesting like Cole Young, Jackson Merrill, Carson Williams, Colson Montgomery, and Anthony Volpe. Collin Houck and Cooper Pratt seem to fall into that range this year.

Houck is a great athlete with current strength (he's a QB as well) in a great program in Georgia - a sort of teenage JT Realmuto clone.

.

[andyb]

Maybe we should stick with Bryce if we want a high ceiling HS player. This guy was mocked to the Phillies in the first MLB.com mock back in December. He seems committed to the 2-way thing for now and is consistently rated in the back end of the first round.

Bryce Eldridge is a two-way star. Ohtani comparisons have followed.

Here is that mock from December:

Here's Pipeline's first full 2023 mock draft

[fish]

Prospects Live mocked the Phillies Cam Johnson, LHP, IMG Academy

"Johnson, from IMG Academy, continues the trend and brings a live lefty arm already up to 98 with potential for more. The overall profile will need some fine-tuning including the shape and feel for a true breaking ball."

This video from last year (in a Phillies uniform no less from Perfect Game) is not all that impressive, but it is from last year.

This seems to be from this year- power sinker, good fastball metrics.

That somewhat unique scap load like a flyway 'inverted W' looks a bit strenuous though.

[fish]

Keith Law ranked Noble Meyer and Thomas White around where the Phils pick, but I have a hard time seeing a lot of his player rankings going at a similar points in the draft.

Who's No. 1 in Keith Law's MLB Draft ranking? The latest top 50 prospects

[fish]

MLB.com updated their draft rankings- not a lot of interesting names around the Phillies pick except local high school SS Kevin McGonigle. Almost all of his video in search results is from last year, so you can see a hit tool in an undersized body, but looked twitchier/stronger in the one video I could find of him (the video below is from last September). Chase Utley comps abound.

. @BaseballAmerica has released their Mock Draft 1.0 and it has the Red Sox drafting SS Kevin McGonigle out of Monsignor Bonner HS.
⁰McGonigle carries one of the best hit tools in the class. High baseball IQ. Might have to shift to 2B.

Familiar profile.pic.twitter.com/oNwMTCqQxy

— Tyler Milliken ️ ( @tylermilliken_ ) March 17, 2023

One guy that caught my eye today is Oregon highschool lefty Paul Wilson...Trevor Wilson's son. MLB has him ranked at #62, and I can't quite figure out why except that he hasn't been as electric as he was last summer apparently. Still, he's a 6'3" 197 lb lefty throwing 93-95. Delivery looks good though they say his timing can be off. Side note, wow, I can't believe Trevor Wilson pitched 30 years ago.

2023 Draft: Paul Wilson, LHP | 04/27/2023

[allentown]

The baseball draft is the biggest crapshoot of major sports drafts. Picking where the Phillies will pick in the first round makes it very iffy that they will choose someone who looks like a significant prospect at this time in 2025. It was a lot easier to get excited about the draft when we picked in the top half of the round, or even around 20. This year it feels like our first rounder will be equivalent to our second round choices in prior seasons.

[Squire]

Where we are picking this year, all of the relatively safe options worth picking are going to be gone. The value is going to be in HS pitching as some teams just avoid it in the first on principle. Swing for the fences. A Joe Savery type doesn't move the needle.

[zambonir]

It was a lot easier to get excited about the draft when we picked in the top half of the round, or even around 20.

But was it really?

I take your point of course but coming off Randolph/Moniak/Haseley - and with Bohm still looking like a disappointment given that year's position - it's all relative. I think Barber's tenure has been provisionally intriguing, including a few non-first rounders so you never know. And they have been known to score in the second round historically (though they also busted there a lot, including the years they only had a comp or second-rounder).

[fish]

The baseball draft is the biggest crapshoot of major sports drafts.

Party poopers! The draft was like my spring training every year where hope springs eternal as I watched season after season of awful phillies baseball. Besides, Every year there are great players found in the draft #26 and later. It’s always fun to add new talent to the system and wish on them before you see their flaws.

[Squire]

While I agree that the baseball draft is probably the most difficult (more random outcomes) of the major sports drafts I tend to think that we were just really bad at it for a long while. The results of Brian Barber's first 3 years are very promising to date so I am more optimistic than I have been in a long while on this front.

[zambonir]

Well, I guess this would be a good time to see the list of previous #27 picks. Hey, at least it's not 29! (Though 30, or in this case, 28, would have been nice).

Mariners have the 22nd pick as well as 29th pick for having ROTY. Plus 30 for competitive balance. Mets and Dodgers also both pick in that sandwich round (thus the higher spot for Phillies), dropping 10 spots as CBT penalty.

Of course the Phillies also don't have a 2nd round pick, so viewing the 1st round pick as a really high second-rounder is not necessarily a bad thing. I would think they do indeed to back to a HS pitcher, especially after last year. But it seems like 4 or 5 college players tend to go in the bottom 10 as well.

[andyb]

I just wish Barber had more money to play with. Not too much savings to go underslot at the back end of the first round and lacking a second round pick. After the 3rd or 4th round I am usually most excited about our 11th round pick. This year I think we probably need to pick the best talent we can sign with the first pick and then go slot or under the rest of the way to make that first round signing possible.

[zambonir]

This strikes me as another reason to get Nola signed, even though that's clearly not happening until the off-season. Losing him only gets the Phillies a pick at the end of the 4th round, and if he leaves I reckon they will have to squander another 2nd-round pick in 2024 or 2025. Though I suppose they could also double down on Wheeler and extend him instead.

Still can't be sure all the corner spots (both IF and OF) will be filled internally by 2025 either.

[fish]

Well, I guess this would be a good time to see the list of previous #27 picks.

Well, giving you that information would throw mud on my position of how exciting the draft can still be lol.