2023 MLB Draft Speculation

[fish]

Isn't the Phillies pick for all intents and purposes almost the same as a supplemental round pick?

Only if you are doing the math!

I look at this way- the mock drafts are like understanding your budget to buy a house. It let's you know where you stand and where to put your expectations, as well as to be able recognize when the result looks out of the norm...like why you should ask questions if you were able to buy a mansion on a starter home budget.

I would agree with the likelihood that, whoever they take, Dombrowski has seen them. So there is that level of buy-off.

[andyb]

ESPN Mock 1.0 gives us Steven Echavarria, RHP, Millburn HS (NJ)

2023 MLB Mock Draft 1.0: Who will go No. 1 to the Pirates?

[fish]

Florida Gators commit, so that's a plus. I'll say one thing for him- he sure looks focused on the mound.

In the realistic potential to be there when they pick, i'd go with someone from this group-
Bryce Eldridge - the towering 6'7" Virginia Highschool 1B (he get's ranked higher- but I think a high school 1B with size enough to make you cautious slides some)

Kevin McGonigle (highest floor, looks like it's a question of how much more strength he can add to impact the ball given that defensively he's probably a second baseman)

Walker Martin- he looks like he has the strength that McGonigle needs without as good a hit tool. 2 sport athlete- probably not a shortstop but bat looks good enough for 3rd or OF.

Thomas White - NE high school lefty. Sure would like to see a few good lefty starting pitchers to be excited about again.

Hurston Waldrop - Gator RHP with overwhelming stuff with a delivery that needs to be fixed.

Kiefer Lord is Washington State RHIP that probably goes late 2nd, early 3rd - but something about the stuff reminds me of McGarry.
https://twitter.com/JoeDoyleMiLB/status/1595084699826737152?s=20

[zambonir]

We could have been scouting him! (pretty easy trip from the Lehigh Valley anyway)

[andyb]

I don't think we have any possibilities from last year, but draft and follows are back. What pool does this bonus come from?

The Red Sox agreed to terms with their 2022 18th round pick RHP Austin Ehrlicher, pending physical. He will get a $200,000 bonus as a draft and follow out of Santa Rosa JC (CA), per source.

He’s the first DNF under the new rules in the ‘22 CBA, back for the first time since 2007

— Kiley McDaniel ( @kileymcd ) June 2, 2023

[julio]

andyb - I don't know the answer to your question, but thanks for posting this. It reminded me to check the MLBPA's Key Documents page, to see if the 2022-26 CBA had actually become available (it had been about two weeks since I checked)...and it has! I've downloaded the CBA, but I haven't read it yet (it's a 440-page .pdf file).

The answer to your question may be in there (or not - it may be addressed in detail only in the Major League Rules update, and that's not available yet). It may take some time to find it, though!

[Aside: When I read andyb's question, my first reaction was, "Ahh, I'll have to go upstairs to the computer to verify that the CBA is still not available, and then I guess I'll gripe about that again." But no! It feels like it's taken forever, but at last we have the text... which means I have productive work to do.]

[Edit: Based on a first scan of the new CBA, it looks like the details of the draft and follow - and details of any changes to the Rule 4 draft at all - will have to await the release of the 2022 (or 2023, dare we hope) Major League Rules.

[gmwannabe]

I don't the Phils had any, did they?

[julio]

I don't the Phils had any, did they?

No, we did not. The list of draftees is here. All but one of them signed, and he was a 4-year college junior, so not eligible for Draft and Follow (unless the rules have changed far more than we think!).

[andyb]

Julio - we count on you to read all 440 pages so we don't have to.

[Sabin]

Edit: Bases on a fist scan of the new CBA,

For a second there my mind travelled from looking down upon a quiet, neatly-prepared baseball diamond to standing in a sun-splashed western frontier amongst a tribe of Sioux and a more youthful Kevin Costner.

[fish]

What pool does this bonus come from?

Up to $225k doesn’t count against the pool.

[andyb]

Strategically it then is probably a good idea to have one or two potential DNFs in your last half dozen picks. You offer them $125K to sign immediately or up to $225K to sign the year after. Of course if they have a good season then that $225K won't be enough. Assume if Boston had gone over it would have come out of this year's pool overages.

[julio]

Julio - we count on you to read all 440 pages so we don't have to.

Heh.

Actually, I probably will, at least cursorily. But that won’t happen until I’ve printed it out, which will be after I’ve restocked our printer paper - probably early next week.

I vacillate between searching the.pdf file for specific terms, and using the paper version (when I find myself flipping back and forth among two or more sections that intro-relate), so I like to have both available.

But I only print out the ML Rules every couple of years (they revise it annually), to be a bit less obsessive?

[Squire]

New BA Mock Draft

27 - Phillies — Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton (Texas) HS

Mitchell gets a lot of buzz in the 10-20 range, but there are also more than 10 players who I could say the same about and the high school catcher demographic is one that I wouldn’t be surprised to see slip down the board a bit on draft day. Mitchell has uncommon lefthanded power for the position at the high school level, with a huge arm to go with it.

[fish]

Blake Mitchell

Well, that would be an interesting pick. A left hitting catcher with an arm that is 98 mph off the mound, strong looking kid with great bat speed.

[allentown]

I'd be fine with this pick. The Phillies do well developing catchers. Drafting as low as we are the best pickings are H.S. where at least it's a real lottery ticket. The collegiate pool will be well skimmed. H.S. pitchers and this catcher mocked to us. Both in the wheelhouse of our developmental program.

[gmwannabe]

I think I would agree to give up Ortiz to get back into the second round. Detroit needs power hitting outfielder.
gm

[allentown]

Can't trade draft picks.

[julio]

Can't trade draft picks.

Clubs can’t trade regular draft picks, but they can trade competitive balance picks. Theoretically, the Phillies could trade someone to Detroit for their competitive balance pick after the first round (#37). If they did that, they would then forfeit that pick (it would be their “second” pick), and they would then regain their regular second-round pick (#60).

[fish]

The latest mlbpipeline mock has Charlee Soto to the Phillies again. HIs stuff is pretty similar to Mick Abel, but with more effort which is a little worrisome.