I think that many World Series appearances is itself dynastic. If they'd routinely topped 100 wins and then got bounced in the wild card round, different stories.
The Dodgers are a bit of a grey area there as well.
Success in a short series, against an opponent of similar ability, is largely random. The Astros are a good, dangerous club. Nothing is easy or certain at this level.
One caveat: If one club is clearly stronger than the other, then a short series can happen. The 1983 World Series, where the Orioles basically crushed the Phillies, is an example of that.
I'm certainly nervous the Astros will do what they just did to the Yankees. They are 7-0, but hey, we're 9-2.
If we win game 1 and hit them with a proverbial punch in the mouth, as Mike Tyson would call it.....
Umpires for the World Series have been announced. For some reason, Angel Hernandez is not going to be there.
But Dan Iassogna is, as the crew chief no less. Umpitre ratings have him as the worst ball/strike ump in the crew.
Saw this elsewhere:
https://twitter.com/bnightengale/status/1585356133790777373?s=46&t=CH_vdzpEl2H5uYEbKI_wgA2
Dan Iassogna - https://umpscorecards.com/single_umpire/?name=Dan%20Iassogna8
Alan Porter - https://umpscorecards.com/single_umpire/?name=Alan%20Porter6
Jordan Baker - https://umpscorecards.com/single_umpire/?name=Jordan%20Baker4
James Hoye - https://umpscorecards.com/single_umpire/?name=James%20Hoye3
Lance Barksdale - https://umpscorecards.com/single_umpire/?name=Lance%20Barksdale3
Pat Hoberg - https://umpscorecards.com/single_umpire/?name=Pat%20Hoberg2
Tripp Gibson - https://umpscorecards.com/single_umpire/?name=Tripp%20Gibson3
Well at least 5 of the 7 score well above average (all but Iassogna and Hoye). I think they are clearly using data to pick most of the umpires but seniority rules with crew chiefs.
This is a pretty good13 writeup of how well Thomson and company have managed the relievers so far this postseason.
Phillies put Nick Nelson and Nick Maton on the World Series roster. They took off Bailey Falter and Dalton Guthrie.
— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) October 28, 2022
I guess the surprise here is Hand keeps his spot. I do think they were just never that eager to use Falter based on his small sample of success/stuff and then when they did, he showed why.
IMHO, the Pen has been both brilliant and scary. Damn near just blew a game throwing a wild pitch in the rain. Can't feel confident about the guys behind our 2 stars.
I think nearly everybody expects low-scoring, stare-down games. I think 7 games fer sure. Here's hoping Nola brings his A game tonight. GO PHILS!
I would’ve thought Guthrie would have more value as a defensive replacement/pinch runner than Hall. Hall hasn’t seen an MLB ab for quite awhile.
There is no Hall (Hand, is what I mentioned). Maton's LHB instead of Guthrie, he's probably a better hitter too, but otherwise same skill set (i.e. fielding/running). Plus he gets to see his injured brother.
That was my initial thought, but remember Houston has no left-handed relievers and only one left-handed starter. Probably more chances for Maton than Guthrie in an extra inning game and while Guthrie is a bit faster, it is not as if Maton is slow.
Nelson makes sense if they are not going to start Falter. I do NOT want to see Falter come in as a reliever after really not doing it all year.
Astros roster actually added Will Smith, a left-handed reliever we should be familiar with from Atlanta. Traded midseason and was pretty good for Houston (3.27 ERA, solved the control issues he had with Atlanta earlier) but did not make the playoff roster the last 2 rounds.
Assume he is basically there for Harper and maybe Schwarber though the Astros probably don't want him pitching beyond the 3 batters if that.
Just looking at Yordan Alvarez's splits. Really interesting that last year he struggled against change ups and murdered cutters (from righties and lefties), and whatever he changed to adapt reversed his success such that this year he murdered changeups and struggled on cutters. He's kind of an average (still good) hitter against curves. He hammers low fastballs, and doesn't chase up often.
And then the opposite is true of Kyle Tucker- last year he hit changeups really well, and not as well against breaking balls, This year he hit breaking balls better than change ups.
Based on those trends, the last person you want to see against him is Brogdon. Alvarado's cutter should eat him up, and to the extent that you would trust Robertson, his cutter and curve should play well. He has suppressed numbers against sinkers, so Suarez (and Nola) might play well. Will be interesting to see how Wheeler handles him.
Fun fact, Justin Verlander is 0-6 with a 5.68 era in his career during the world series.
Sitting there mostly covered from the rain (by one row!) I have wondered if it was clear on the broadcast that the heaviest rain of the day was that inning that Seranthony couldn't get a grip on all his pitches. Seems to me the fact that they were made to play through it was more the issue, not how players may or may not have competed during that stretch.
