2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[andyb]

One interesting stat about Vierling this week surprised me a bit. SSS, but he is actually fast and not just above average in speed.

Statcast Sprint Speed Leaderboard

He actually ranks right with Trea Turner and Julio Rodriguez for fastest speed in the first few weeks just shy of the 30 feet/second mark. Stott is 2nd and Realmuto 3rd on the Phillies. Camargo a bit surprisingly ranking near the bottom in the early going though I imagine that is the small sample. Only 2 SB so far. This team might not steal 50 bases with the current composition.

[Austinfan]

That suggests with some coaching he could become a plus CF, since his range will be limited more by his jumps on balls than his speed.

[andyb]

It really only means that it is possible he will become decent in CF. Remember there are valid reasons why he played mostly in a corner in the minors. He is also probably more in the 10th - 20th percentile in speed rather than the top 2%. Imagine he has had a few sprints to avoid ground ball outs and double plays so far. I have definitely seen some balls in CF that I thought he should have gotten close to that he didn't. He is a work in progress out there. But at least he is faster than some alternatives.

[zambonir]

I'm actually surprised the bullpen is that bad, it doesn't seem like they've been a big factor either way. Have had their moments both good and bad (okay I guess Familia has mostly been bad). Of course any bullpen is stressed by struggling starting pitching.

I wouldn't say this team was expecting the starting pitchers to be good. Just solid. Still a team built to win by scoring five runs or more, but so was last year's. Last year's team had far worse pitching and still probably should have made the playoffs had the offense or bullpen been better. If Wheeler or any of the others can't be counted on in the first half the #5 will be just as ugly as last year. It's an area they chose not to address early on; by the time they signed Castellanos there weren't really any notable SPs left.

On the bright side, teams has won two games in a row and beat a proven NL team last night. A good homestand would magically erase the previous two weeks, at least for now.

[andyb]

We were 3rd in the Fangraphs positional starting pitcher projections.

2022 Positional Power Rankings: Starting Rotation (No. 1-15)

We probably were never that good. Hard to rate Ranger Suarez properly after last year but a huge factor was Nola being worse than his peripherals so the projections on him were pretty good. And of course we have gotten nothing from Wheeler.

But it was supposed to be a team strength and so far it has not been.

[Austinfan]

The bullpen looks deeper this year at first glance, even Familia has his velo, so may just be early season command issues. Getting Brogdon will help with depth.

Last year's starters, Velasquez 17 starts, 5.95 ERA, Moore 13s, 6.29, Gibson 11s 5.09, Anderson 9s, 6.75, Howard 7s, 5.72. So that's 46 starts (excluding Gibson) that were basically putrid.
Eflin 18s, Suarez 12s.

Neris, Kennedy, Brogdon, Alvarado, Bradley, Coonrod, solid middle relief group but no reliable closer (Neris 12 saves led the bunch, followed by Kennedy with 10).
After that Falter, Kinzler, De Los Santos, Hale & Hammer.

[zambonir]

Kind of surprising to me, but also validates the front office's viewpoint I guess. Just a lot of things that could break the wrong way. Not worried about Wheeler (yet) but don't expect last year again either.

[Taudawg]

That suggests with some coaching he could become a plus CF, since his range will be limited more by his jumps on balls than his speed.

I suspect Vierling is what he is in CF, which is okay. Vierling played most of his Notre Dame time in CF and from what I could find about his prep time, he mostly a centerfielder prior to his senior season when he played SS. it's unlikely he's going to take much of step forward defensively at 25.

[Taudawg]

Phillies Notes: Harper, Bohm

I've been thinking the Phillies will move on from Hoskins at some point, maybe even during this season. Hoskins seems to be a good guy, but his season average 2.6 WAR is replaceable and his cost will continue grow. Perhaps the Phillies will be buyers and sellers at this year's deadline.

[nycphils]

I think that’s the solution if Camargo keeps hitting. Bohm at 1B, Camargo at 3B and Hoskins dealt.

[zambonir]

Man, I just don't think Hoskins has that much value. In some ways an underappreciated player in terms of what he brought to the Phillies specifically, but RH DHs who you don't even want to play at 1B just aren't that scarce. Not saying he'd go the way of Cesar H or Franco and maybe some offense-poor team would step up with the Phillies paying all his salary (they could always non-tender him later) but you'd mostly just be moving him to to get rid of him.

Also, who's the SS? Neither Didi nor Stott appear to be the answer currently. And Camargo, if he's for real, could also be next year's 2B if Bohm can play 3B.

[nycphils]

I hear you, though I’m not suggesting that Hoskins is going to bring much of a return.

Easier to find a defense first SS I’d think than a competent 3B. YMMV.

[zambonir]

I reckon they probably need to hang on to the depth. Losing Hoskins to injury the last two seasons really hurt them; if Harper, Schwarber, Castellanos or JT miss a month at any point we'll be glad to have Rhys's bat.

But, many different paths ahead for sure.

And I'd just play Stott at SS if you don't need him to be above the Mendoza Line, but he actually has to play (at either level) first.

[Aquapong]

I thought a few years ago I could see the Phils moving on from Hoskins when his arbitration years run out. Now with Schwarber and Castellanos on board, maybe we nontender him after the year if Bohm shows some consistency.

[bkox]

IM just not sure you non tender someone who has a career 860 OPS... which is 44 points higher than Castellanos and 22 points higher than Schwarber

[zambonir]

Well, you call all 29 teams first and find out what they might give for him (and the privilege of paying him a bigger salary). Cesar Hernandez was a switch-hitting 2.0 WAR defensively okay 2B when the Phillies let him go for nothing (after presumably refusing offers they didn't like for several years). Rhys is 2.0 WAR RH-hitting defensively awful 1B. The DH helps I'm sure. That's also what makes the idea of an in-season move interesting.

[bkeich]

The problem is that after this season every GM knows that we have a roster issue with all of these DH types. That is going to reduce / eliminate the market / compensation since everyone knows that the Phil's will probably need to move someone and Hoskins probably is the most likely.

[zambonir]

Yup. Most of those 29 GMs will be like, "nah, we'll wait." But it only takes one. And not all teams have the surplus of hitting we do (or seem to). Let's hope the Phillies are good enough - and the offense good enough - that they are deadline buyers to begin with. If not, selling on Rhys will be easy (and you don't stop there).

[Philsmania]

I have a question regarding those incentives that MLB now offers teams to promote prospects despite service time concerns. The Phillies could obviously profit from them by promoting Stott out of spring training. However, how long does he have to remain on the ML roster for the Phillies to be rewarded? If it's the whole season, I can't help but wonder if MLB created a new class of virtual Rule 5 picks who have to stay in the ML roster the whole season and lose a season of MiL development.

[allentown]

and lose a season of MiL development.

Nobody should lose a season of MiL development because of this rule. If they need a year, or most of a year, in the minors, then they aren't candidates to garner these incentives. These honors will be won by guys able to hit MLB running, at least by May, if not April. Stott isn't up because of the incentives, he's up because the Phillies are bereft of MLB SS talent (at least adequate performers, which unfortunately Stott also probably isn't at this point in his development.