2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[andyb]

Well they are upgrading from Falter for 10-12 starts the rest of the way too. This is not all about the playoffs and whether Ranger is good enough for game 3. Frankly deploying Ranger as a 3-inning weapon might be part of the postseason strategy too.

[Philsmania]

I saw a tweet which pointed out that the Phillies have eleven games left against the now-absolute-Phillie-killer-Soto-less Nationals and seven against the Reds who also held a fire sale this week. Eighteen games. Opportunity knocks!

[rpmcmurphy]

The optimistic me thinks 14-4. The negadelphian me thinks 4-14.

[andyb]

I am a little scared of old friend Joey Meneses putting together a storybook 50 games after a decade of frustration and bad luck not getting called up.

[EDmuch]

The only thing I have not particularly cared for as a result of the trades is that the starting CF job has been handed to Marsh despite his rather Moniakian offensive numbers. The news that Thomson already told Vierling that Marsh will be the starting CF really sucks. Seems to me they could at least require him to hit three balls out of the infield in a game before crowning him the starting CF.

[bkeich]

Yes, this is clearly a "grass is always greener" case. I don't see much in Marsh's stats to justify him even starting over Odubel.

Marsh deserves a good chance to win the job, we kinda need him to do it, but he has not done anything that makes it clear that is a certainty.

[zambonir]

Defense and defensive stats are hard but the argument is simply that Marsh is that much better than Odubel (enough that he can even be a worse hitter) and at least somewhat better than Vierling, especially with the two stiffs standing on either side of him. Vierling will still get his looks.

That's kind of my point. Unless they were going to land a #1/#2 type, a slight upgrade over Suarez in a playoff series wasn't worth the huge payments asked for starters. Better to cross your fingers.

But they didn't make a huge payment for Thor. In fact he fell into their lap. They walked away from the clear upgrades, even the controllable ones, and settled for just improving the depth and adding an option. And it is true Ranger, Thor and Gibson (possibly Eflin too) could all be used more as long relievers than starters per se in the playoffs. Having Ranger + Thor as your Game 3 (or Game 4 NLCS) starter is better than only having one of them. There are 1 or 2 guys in the current bullpen who won't pitch in the playoffs (or even make the roster, though probably a longer bullpen and shorter bench also happens if allowed).

[EDmuch]

Dont we only have 4 guys on the bench now? Hard to make it much shorter.

[zambonir]

Well, yeah, 13 pitchers, 9 position players, four bench players. Though it will go up to 14, 9, five for September.

The Phillies playoff bench is theoretically Didi, Sosa, Vierling and Stubbs. Putting aside whether Didi should be on the roster (could just as easily be Munoz) do you really need two IFs, especially when Vierling can also play 3 of the 4 positions? Of course you could also go with Hall. I suppose even with the DH a three-man bench would be pretty small but I could also see them going all three games without a bench player getting a single AB.

[EDmuch]

I would think the playoff bench would be Hall, Sosa, Vierling and Stubbs. As you mentioned, since Vierling can also play the infield, there would be no serious reason to carry Dii as yet another infielder. Hall as a big bat off the bench would seem to make much more sense.

[andyb]

Bench has to have 4 position players at minimum. Most teams probably carry a 5th as a pinch hitter (Hall?).

No team really needs a 5th starter. Or if they keep their 5th starter it will be at the expense of a bullpen arm. If they Gibson is worth more than Nelson in relief they just don't keep both on a playoff roster where there are more off days beyond that first series. It won't be as extreme as in a 1-game series teams would often go with 2-3 extra position players (pinch runners, etc.), but fewer pitchers are really needed in the playoffs. We'd also have to ask whether we want Wheeler and Nola in relief on their throwing days.

[zambonir]

Step 1 would be to get rid of Didi, whether you carry two gloves or not. Would they really keep him on the team - and keep playing him - until season's end and then leave him off the playoff roster? I doubt it. If he's not DFAed tomorrow then he's probably not getting DFAed (and then he also beats out Hall for the bench spot if it's only four).

And yeah, I suppose with no fifth starter - or even fourth starter - the bullpen doesn't have to be bigger, you just end up with starters in it. And we may yet see Eflin (but probably not holding my breath).

[schillingfan]

I missed the Romero for Sosa trade. I’m going to be lazy and ask someone to tell me about it rather than looking it up. It doesn’t have its own thread or any discussion of why and was it a good trade.

[zambonir]

I think they decided Romero couldn't help this year and wouldn't survive the next 40-man cull and Sosa immediately becomes their best defensive infielder. Incremental improvement. And Camargo wasn't getting it done in either aspect (but had an option). The person it really hurts is Maton... but it's a less-good trade if it doesn't ultimately ship Didi out too (i.e. Segura at 2B, Stott at SS, Sosa bench).

Hopefully next year they will actually have some good starters who can play defense (which would also require Marsh to become a good starter) but right now it's about improving the D in the few places they can.

[allentown]

Sosa is a plus glove, minus bat SS/INF, Romero is a coming back from injury former SP, turned second-tier who last put up decent numbers in Reading in 2019 -- his effective peak season was 2018 at Reading and his 2019 #s were a clear step down from 2018. I doubt he would have wintered on our 40-man if he were not traded.

[xogfog]

58 games left, 36 of them against the Nationals, Marlins, Reds, Diamondbacks, Pirates and Cubs. If they can't make the playoffs with that schedule...

[el-pietro]

Unfortunately, the Cardinals have an even more favourable schedule.
They have 59 remaining with 44 against the Nats(4), Cubs(10), Pirates(9), Reds (12), Diamondbacks (3) and Rockies (6).

And even if you look elsewhere it doesn't get much better, Brewers have 34 left with that bunch, Padres 33 including games against the Royals and Giants, Braves have 27 against a similar group and Mets 26, but they both have a significant headstart over the Phillies.

[Sabin]

58 games left, 36 of them against the Nationals, Marlins, Reds, Diamondbacks, Pirates and Cubs. If they can't make the playoffs with that schedule...

The problem with that is the Cardinals, currently a half-game back for the WC3, have 37 of their remaining 59 against the same group (plus the Rockies). However the Brewers, now only one game up after dropping the last two against the Pirates, have only 29 of 58 against that group. Instead they see match ups against the Yankees, Rays, and Mets, making things interesting down the homestretch.

Edit: El-pietro's numbers are correct...I forgot the regular season extends into October this year. (Duh.)

[xogfog]

Well at least the Phillies own the tiebreakers against both the Cardinals and Brewers.

[el-pietro]

Fangraphs wildcard odds gives the Mets and Braves a combined 99.5% chance of taking one spot and the Dodgers and Padres a combined 96.4% chance. I dont know if their odds take into consideration the additions/subtractions each team has made, but it seems fair to assume the first two spots are taken and the Phillies are fighting it out for the final wild card spot with the Cardinals and Brewers.Theres a small outside chance that the Marlins or Giants make a run but realistically its the Phillies vs the loser of the Cardinals and Brewers division race.

Fangraphs likes the Phillies odds, 62.4% vs a combined 35.6% for the NL Central pair. Again, I don't know if the odds factor in the trades, but either way I think we're in scoreboard watching territory and the only teams that matter are the Cardinals and Brewers. They play each other 7 times which is helpful,but they also both play a lot of bad teams, including the Nats and Reds whose rosters are significantly weaker than the ones who established the winning percentages used here.

Being optimistic/grasping at straws the Brewers schedule is close to .500 and both teams games vs the Yankees, Dodgers, Padres and Mets are hopefully early enough that they aren't after the division races are completely wrapped up, while the Phillies final series is against an Astros team who should have the NL West wrapped up by then.

MLB Remaining Schedule Strength | Tankathon