2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[allentown]

His value should be higher next season as a AAA player. It's Phillies negativity to assume we need to trade him now before something goes terribly wrong.

[zambonir]

But justifiable negativity!

What's a shame is that last year Marchan was expected to be a solid trade chip this year, as an almost-ready major league back-up who might still have a higher ceiling. That he isn't is bad luck not poor development, at least. But he could still get you something. They may yet flip Sands too (sell for more than they paid).

O'Hoppe you only move for someone like Castillo or a controllable CF.

Jim Bowden:

You are (Phillies president of baseball operations) Dave Dombrowski. You could use a center fielder and bullpen help, and probably another starting pitcher because Zach Eflin is hurt again. You’re in contention for a playoff spot but don’t have much depth in the farm system, so you’re gonna need to be creative. How do you approach this deadline? — Michael S.

I’m definitely not trading any of my top prospects, such as pitchers Andrew Painter and Mick Abel and catcher Logan O’Hoppe. And I’m realistic that the Phillies are not going to catch the Braves or Mets because they are much better and deeper teams. However, with a wild-card berth in play, I would do everything I could to find a team that likes our mid-level prospects better than we do, and try to land a reliever or two and a starter. In addition, I’d focus my trade talks on non-contending teams that want to unload salary and see if I can’t make a deal centered on that, as long as it doesn’t financially hamstring the Phillies next year.

Answering 25 MLB trade deadline questions on buyers, sellers and top targets

[bkox]

Bryce Harper saw the doctor today but did not have his pins removed. They’re shooting for next Monday. He is continuing to get treatment for his elbow and hopes to be in RF by the end of the season. But priority is DH first.

— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) July 25, 2022

[zambonir]

Pretty conservative talk from Dombrowski here. Nothing surprising. Not gonna trade the Big Three. Probably (in Gelb's opinion) only a back of the rotation starter and marginal moves. The bigger subject, the possibility that one or more of the young pitchers could help in the majors next season (which is another reason not to trade them).

As Phillies plot trade deadline course, Dave Dombrowski offers intriguing...

“We’re trying to make the playoffs,” he said. “If we win the division, that’s great. But we’re sitting, what, 9 1/2 games out of first place? But if you make the postseason, anything can happen. And I do think that if we’re in a short series, the way we are, we have a nice structure for a short series.”

[zambonir]

Meanwhile - it's hard to keep track of the playoff format since it has been different for three straight years (COVID year, back to normal, and now this). The top two teams get a bye into the NLDS. That means if the Phillies are the last playoff team they'd face the #3 Brewers, a team they have handled this year (4-2, though hey, they are also 4-3 against the Dodgers). 5th spot and they'd currently go to Atlanta. Somehow catch the Braves and get to 4th and they actually would get all the home games.

That's a much bigger prize and less imposing path to the NLDS than if it was more like the 2020 format and they had to play the #1 team.

There's also no re-seeding, so if the #6 Phillies upset the #3 Brewers they would play (currently) the Mets, #1 Dodgers would be locked into the 4/5 winner.

We'll see if Dombrowski is posturing and actually ends up going big. He says that right now every team wants a top prospect for a fifth starter, but that obviously won't be the case in 7 days.

[andyb]

There was always going to be a flaw in a system with 2 byes and 3 divisions. That is why I much prefer 2 divisions of 8 teams if they ever expand. Division winners get byes. 4 wildcards play at higher seed over 3 days.

Now you give a disadvantage to the worst division winner (often the central champion) and potentially an advantage to the last wild card if that last division winner is weaker. With 3 divisions and the big money really in the east and west in both leagues, the central division path is at the same time easier (easier division) and harder (wild card short series).

[zambonir]

It's a flaw that benefits the Phillies this time though. Just as it's easier to give something up for an actual mini-round instead of a single game, it's a bit easier to give something up for a winnable series (on paper) against Milwaukee versus an unwinnable trip to the Pacific time zone (on paper). Also, in a non-bye format had they survived the Dodgers the Mets presumably would have awaited (or vice-versa); not having to play both (and in any case probably not the #1 team) in the NLDS is an easier path.

There's also really no reason to try and catch the Padres because they probably can't catch the Braves and get the home games. If they go on a tear and end up 5th that's obviously better than being 7th, but it's a much harder path (Braves then Dodgers currently).

[Philsmania]

The cynic in me says the built-in flaws to the twelve team postseason format is to deem it necessary to expand the field to sixteen teams

[zambonir]

haha maybe. I think both sides know it's coming though. Just not 'til expansion/next CBA.

[andyb]

I think there was real pushback on the 16 teams though from multiple directions. And remember the free win that was proposed for the top seeds (start 1-0 in a 3-game series) and the number of new TV dates is not that many. Plus the analytics simulations really implied that teams would not make too many trades at the deadline to compete because the reward was just not worth it. Think Mets-Braves the rest of this year. It is completely worth both teams competing for the division to avoid a 3-game series. It would be less worth it to just get a game in a short series.

[bkeich]

12 years ago my post on Facebook:

"12 years ago my post on and the Domonic Brown Era has begun... crushed the ball for a RBI Double in his first AB. This kid is going to be fun to watch for a long time I have a feeling."

It is still surprising to me how far off the rails it went. "Kid" had talent, athleticism, wasn't a troubled guy (drugs), seemed to be at least a good teammate, he just had no adjustment when the league had a book on him. Shame, it seemed like he should be on the downside of a very good career by now.

[zambonir]

Interesting note here. Castellanos has worked with the same hitting coach for seven years and the Phillies actually hired him to work for Mattingly (he's also worked for the Tigers and other teams).

Phillies’ Nick Castellanos ‘just hasn’t been right, and he’s made it worse,’...

[BaseballCat]

I think Castellanos is a good guy / teammate who works hard to meet expectations. The problem is he was a poor fit for this team on the field that if he does not hit the fans will let him know. I just hope that he bounces back like Lindor did for the Mets. I do realize he is older than Lindor. I don’t think anything physical is the problem. It may me more mental like the article implies. At this point can only hope for the best and that he works through it.

[andyb]

I wonder if Castellanos changed his approach a bit for the lively ball and the humidor era has brought him back to his early days in Detroit (admittedly a big park) when he was known more for doubles. You can't really see it in his K/BB rates (which are a bit worse but he was never good there), but I wonder if his swing got retooled for launch angle and he should get back to basics. He might be more patient if he is trying to use the center of the field rather than trying to yank one out of the park.

He was probably not as good as he showed last year but there is a long track record that suggests he should be better than he has been this year. My issue with signing him was more defense than offense, so at least we can hope he gets back some at the plate and Bryce pushes him to DH eventually.

[andyb]

BA on trades to clear 40-man spots for next winter. Of course they had to bring up Curtis Mead....

For the Phillies they list 7 players to think about. 4 probably need to be protected next Fall (O'Hoppe, E Miller, Rojas, Ben Brown) and 3 more who I would probably risk not protecting (Kendall Simmons, Starlyn Castillo, Andrick Nava). Probably need to do a deeper dive on protection issues but it seems we have a few more prospects that will need it next season than we did this season.

Creative Teams Can Use Trade Deadline To Answer 40-Man Questions

[Aquapong]

I count 6 free agents and one likely option decline in Segura. 5 guys including Segura on the 60 day IL. If we’re protecting those 4 guys (which I agree we should), we’d need to jettison 1 player on the current 40 man. Damon Jones is first to go I’m guessing. Maybe we can shake a spot or two loose in deadline trades.

[andyb]

Can't imagine we carry 5 catchers so one is probably dealt in the next few days.

[zambonir]

Well, none of these moves have to happen now, just potentially smart to get in front of it. Even Mead (or rather, Sanchez) was not moved at the trade deadline but rather before Rule 5. If they trade Morales or Marchan or Sands or any of the names not yet on the 40 it will likely be more because they have value than that extra bonus transactional convenience.

[zambonir]

Thomson still standing by Familia (three-tweet thread)

https://twitter.com/byalexcoffey/status/1553125971141791744

[Austinfan]

Until the day he's waived.