Zach Eflin threw to hitters yesterday. Felt soreness in right knee today. Will be examined tomorrow in Phila. No timetable for return.
— Jim Salisbury ( @JSalisburyNBCS ) July 17, 2022
Yeah they're gonna need a pitcher more than a CF but that was already true. A healthy Eflin was still your #3.
I guess the good news is the odds of Eflin exercising his end of the mutual option continue to rise, and/or he might have to sign a one-year deal in any case.
split this topic Jul 20, '22
I bought tix to Sunday’s game and I’m glad I’ll be in the shade along the 3rd base line. It’s supposed to be 96. This whole week is supposed to be pretty brutal.
We are going to be on the first base side in the Hall of Fame section (a stubhub splurge) on Friday. We will be at the Philadelphia Zoo members evening hour on Thursday. We have kept our membership up almost 20 years after leaving the Philly area. When I saw that the Phils were there the next day - that started the wheels turning for our trip from VA. After Phils game, we will see family in NJ and either a Jersey Shore or a Somerset (playing Reading) game on Sunday. Stay cool all and let’s go Phils!!
I sat in the Hall of Fame club last September and really enjoyed it. Same price as a crowded grandstand seat at Fenway.
We are almost exactly one month after the solstice, and temperatures lag total sun energy by almost exactly a month worldwide. Translated--this is statistically likely to be the hottest week of the year. Take water with you to the park and stay hydrated!
Well the temp forecast in PHL for Sunday has been downgraded a bit from 99 to only 97. It’s funny that when I lived in Arizona, 97 still wasn’t that bad.
Pretty good article on the Athletic about how the Phillies have improved the bullpen under Thomson by having the starters go deeper. It also seems an organizational philosophy now in that they are having Abel and McGarry throw more pitches than other similar prospects. It does not touch on the 2-inning reliever which is sometimes a lost art, but the 13-pitcher limit is definitely forcing some different priorities on the major league roster.
Pretty fascinating
The Phillies were constructed to pulverize teams with a powerful lineup that could outhit mistakes made by its so-so pitching and porous defense. They begin the second half Friday night with a 3.69 ERA, which ranks fourth in the National League.
Phillies relievers, since Thomson became manager, have faced the second-fewest batters in the major leagues. Only Houston’s bullpen has been used less. Coincidental or not, both the Phillies and Astros have a 2.99 ERA from their bullpens in that span. It’s tied for third-best in baseball.
Underrated in the bullpen story is Seranthony of course. He was the best homegrown reliever of the past 10-15 years and he was absent the last few years. Everyone that complains about spending $10 million for a very average closer like Knebel does not realize we just added the equivalent of a $15 million free agent reliever. Brogdon is also homegrown, but much more inconsistent and replaceable.
Replace Seranthony's innings with some big league average 4.00+ ERA innings and we are probably close to last year's bullpen.
Years from now, I wonder if we will rue how Kapler possibly broke Seranthony by overusing him his rookie year (64 appearances & 74.2 IP between REA, LHV & PHL in what was his first professional season as a reliever, including numerous high-leverage situations in PHL) causing him to miss most of the next three years. Fortunately, it looks like he has been successfully repaired but still, we may well have missed three good young years from him.
That's much more than a manager-level decision. But also, relievers just break. I mean: they broke Robertson and Neshek and Hunter and I think even Nicasio too. Giles has broken many times since he left us.
Beyond that the issue was more COVID, and Seranthony's personal situation. That cost him an entire year.
The only inviolable rule of relief pitching, I think, is that homegrowing a Giles or Seranthony (or Neris, yes!) is truly the only foolproof thing (but even that is subject to injury, and another reason why Hector was so underrated). All of the other ways: big $, medium $, dumpster dives, fungibles really do feel more like roulette. But the Phillies also had some especially bad spins these last five years. Heck, Robertson was specifically signed for his durability!
All the luck stuff can be true while it is also true that we overused Seranthony. Look at the game log and the back to backs and multi-inning outings. It was a lot, especially for a relatively new reliever. No way to sugarcoat it.
I don't see how the Phillies could have broken Robertson. He pitched seven games for them. Maybe Girardi and Boone broke him in New York and and all those outings simply caught up to him when he got to Philadelphia. Interestingly, Robertson also seems to have returned to form nicely here in 2022, three years later after he broke down.
For sure. But - as the article you posted also discusses - nobody really understands anything about usage patterns and mechanics and injury either. Can't assume that lighter or different usage in 2018 would have actually mean on injury in 2019. And yes, I was being facetious when I said the Phillies' broke Robertson but Seranthony's injury could have been dumb luck or bad timing and a single traumatic pitch just the same as Robertson's. The trainers and doctors can't draw firm conclusions and neither can wel.
Beyond that, if it is true, not sugarcoating it, just not blaming Kapler even a little. For one thing he had nothing to do with Seranthony's usage or quick promotions. And then Neris was terrrible that season and the team was ostensibly trying to win the division, but they did not acquire any relievers besides Aaron Loup (and then another guy when Loup got hurt). In those conditions of course the manager was going to overuse his best reliever - when really his bosses probably should have told him to chill out in general.
Of course, Seranthony's health and ability are also of no concern to Kapler or Klentak now (though it played a role in both of them getting fired).
Look at the game log though:
14 outings with 0 days rest. 2 of those for more than 3 outs.
14 more outings with 1 day rest. 5 of those for more than 3 outs.
This from a pitcher in his first year of relief. It was brand new usage and it was heavy usage. It is a stupid argument to say Kapler had nothing to do with his promotion and usage. He knew he was new to relief. He just did not use him with any appropriate caution. It sure looked like overuse from any neutral perspective.
The argument that everything is luck just ignores a bunch of facts. Yes, the injury may have been luck. But the usage pattern was also inappropriate given the player's experience.
