2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[andyb]

I guess Cole Hamels' place was not nice enough:

Ben Simmons’ New Jersey Mansion Sold to Phillies’ Nick Castellanos

[zambonir]

I think Nick will be able to get there a lot faster than that except maybe for day games.

Simmons also put another of his homes on the market last fall, this one in Moorestown, N.J., a 40 minute drive from where his former team, the Philadelphia 76ers, play.

[zambonir]

In more pressing news

Girardi said the Phillies had another test done on Harper last week that showed a small tear in his UCL. They had him visit Dr. ElAttrache this morning, who confirmed that it is a small tear. He’ll be a no throw for four weeks; they hope he’ll start a throwing program after that

— Alex Coffey ( @byalexcoffey ) May 12, 2022

He will also miss 1-2 games to get a PRP injection (https://twitter.com/byalexcoffey/status/1524889759960616960)

[andyb]

This is starting to feel like he'll have TJ surgery in the offseason and the question might be to just DH him all year until then.

Seems to be a surgery that can be done with a 4-6 month recovery. I hope it heals, but we have to realize it may not.

[bkeich]

Seems to be a surgery that can be done with a 4-6 month recovery. I hope it heals, but we have to realize it may not.

Sadly, I think he can probably have the surgery during the season once we become "sellers" in 60 or so games.

[Aquapong]

It’s not as big a deal for non-pitchers, but still not ideal. I literally have the same thing right now. I really should go see someone to make sure there’s not a tear. I can’t shoot a basketball or throw without pain. It seems like it’s gotten a bit better though, so ignoring it is probably the best course of action.

[zambonir]

It could be worse but also could be better. If he actually took 2-4 weeks off would he be more likely to get back into the OF? But also if he did that would the Phillies even have a season left?

It's also possible surgery won't be advised at the end of the season - but then if it doesn't get better after two months it is, and then he misses time next year.

Alex Carr on Twitter noted that, relative to where offense is in the league, Harper's numbers with this injury are fairly insane. But they also aren't elite (he's 28th in MLB, but Trout and Machado are both still putting up numbers like Bryce did last year at the top).

[bkox]

so the year we sign a bunch of DHs.. our RF might have to DH the entire year.

That said.. Castellanos hasnt done badly in RF

[zambonir]

Well yeah at least he's used to playing there.

[flyers19rw]

NC has the arm to handle RF. His play in the OF has always been adequate. The tag of weak defense was put on him for his play at 3B when he first came up in Detroit. They never put much time into working with him at third and pushed him into the OF. He can play OF fairly well. No butcher out there.

[zambonir]

I believe he has consistently ranked among the worst RFs (and OFs) in all of baseball for several years. It's not at all carry-over from his bad rep at 3B. The statistics wouldn't even know he ever played there.

And yes defensive metrics are always grain of salt but no more or less than the eye test.

[flyers19rw]

Once a player gets the stink on them as being poor defensively it’s almost impossible to clear it. Every little miscue gets focused as indicative of being a poor player. With NC, his poor play at third carried with him to the OF. I watched him while he was in Cincinnati. He wasn’t a GG but he was more than adequate and showed a strong arm.

[julio]

For the time being, Castellanos is what we have in right field. That may end up being the case for the rest of this season. He's being productive at the plate.

No, he's not Harper. He's not Bobby Abreu. (On the other hand, he's not Glenn Wilson, either.)

But he is an adequate right fielder, in Harper's absence.

[zambonir]

I hear you but advanced statistics don't care about the "stink." And seeing a guy make a few good plays or show a strong arm in a few games is not the same thing as evaluating every ball hit to him over 162 games and multiple seasons.

Regardless, the Phillies are not a better team with him in RF and Harper only hitting, and not just because of that position. But yes, it's what they have. And it's better than playing Castellanos in LF (which was expected to happen on some of Schwarber's DH days). Shoot, it was even suggested he'd see time at 3B when Bohm wasn't expected to make the team.

[Austinfan]

Where's Gary Maddox when you need him?

[Taudawg]

Fielding Bible has Nick at -3 Defensive Runs Saved. Not at the bottom of the list, but close. He was 3rd from bottom in 2021 at -10. He's body of work in RF as a whole - ranks low in range, and about average in fielding percentage. Honestly, doesn't profile too different from Bryce. Harper is a below average defensive RF. Apologies to anyone offended

Other interesting notes Kyle Schwarber is a plus 1 DRS. Team as a whole is tied for 24th at -8. Best fielders on the team (LOL) are pitchers. Ranger and Zach E at +2 DRS. Worst Alec Bohm -4.

Giants are second to last at -13.

[andyb]

If one sorts the current Phillies by dWAR on Baseball Reference it does have Castellanos as the team's worst defensive player so far this year (-0.4). As Z said, he has been consistently below average in the OF. Usually around -1.0 dWAR for a year.

The Phillies ranking is not a surprise. Our positive players defensively so far are Realmuto (+0.4) and Segura (+0.2) with a trio of players with a small sample size +0.1 (Quinn, Camargo, Stubbs). No idea if that will hold up but Camargo seems pretty good. I do think Quinn is better than Herrera though curiously the manager has been putting Herrera in CF when the two are together - probably going for stability with Herrera who will get the most time there.

The Phillies negative defensive players are no surprise. Castellanos (-0.4), Hoskins (-0.3), Bohm (-0.3), Harper (-0.3), Gregorius (-0.3), and Herrera (-0.2). Schwarber grades a bit better than Castellanos (-0.1) though his arm looks weak so he would probably be worse than Castellanos in RF. Bohm's rating probably is colored by the 3-error day though the reality is he is likely below average there even if he cuts down the errors.

2022 Philadelphia Phillies Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

Scroll down to team player value - batters table.

[phillychuck]

The isn't a whole lot of variance from below-average-competent fielding teams to teams near the top of the league in DRS. As long as the guys are competent (which they all have been lately, even Bohm) I'm not worried about the defense, I'm worried about slumps and pitching meltdowns.

[zambonir]

If memory serves Bryce was terrible his last year in DC (when he played a bunch of CF) and pretty good in 2019, but he was probably never going to get back to that (especially now). But he does run into walls.

Herrera was positive dWAR last season, but again, probably can't expect improvement, let alone the strong play early in his career (where he was favorably compared to Kiermaier).

I think the pitching meltdowns tend to go with the defense. We've already seen it a few times. Anything that costs this team 2-3 wins over the course of the season isn't good. That there are multiple ways that could happen, also not good!

[andyb]

Defense is also less important with more strikeouts and shifts (and I think the Phillies are now saving an above average number of runs on shifts). Plus, I don't think the defensive stats include shifted plays which is about half of the sample for infielders.

If a player can hit I am OK with them just being competent on defense like Castellanos is. He'd cost much more if he was Mookie Betts on defense.