2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[andyb]

All the luck stuff can be true while it is also true that we overused Seranthony. Look at the game log and the back to backs and multi-inning outings. It was a lot, especially for a relatively new reliever. No way to sugarcoat it.

[Philsmania]

That's much more than a manager-level decision. But also, relievers just break. I mean: they broke Robertson and Neshek and Hunter and I think even Nicasio too. Giles has broken many times since he left us.

Beyond that the issue was more COVID, and Seranthony's personal situation. That cost him an entire year.

The only inviolable rule of relief pitching, I think, is that homegrowing a Giles or Seranthony (or Neris, yes!) is truly the only foolproof thing (but even that is subject to injury, and another reason why Hector was so underrated). All of the other ways: big $, medium $, dumpster dives, fungibles really do feel more like roulette. But the Phillies also had some especially bad spins these last five years. Heck, Robertson was specifically signed for his durability!

I don't see how the Phillies could have broken Robertson. He pitched seven games for them. Maybe Girardi and Boone broke him in New York and and all those outings simply caught up to him when he got to Philadelphia. Interestingly, Robertson also seems to have returned to form nicely here in 2022, three years later after he broke down.

[zambonir]

For sure. But - as the article you posted also discusses - nobody really understands anything about usage patterns and mechanics and injury either. Can't assume that lighter or different usage in 2018 would have actually mean on injury in 2019. And yes, I was being facetious when I said the Phillies' broke Robertson but Seranthony's injury could have been dumb luck or bad timing and a single traumatic pitch just the same as Robertson's. The trainers and doctors can't draw firm conclusions and neither can wel.

Beyond that, if it is true, not sugarcoating it, just not blaming Kapler even a little. For one thing he had nothing to do with Seranthony's usage or quick promotions. And then Neris was terrrible that season and the team was ostensibly trying to win the division, but they did not acquire any relievers besides Aaron Loup (and then another guy when Loup got hurt). In those conditions of course the manager was going to overuse his best reliever - when really his bosses probably should have told him to chill out in general.

Of course, Seranthony's health and ability are also of no concern to Kapler or Klentak now (though it played a role in both of them getting fired).

[Austinfan]

I think you underestimate Brogdon, he has a plus changeup to go with that 96 MPH FB and is working on his cutter as a third pitch. Throw in Romero and you have a nice trio of homegrown talent.

[andyb]

Look at the game log though:

Seranthony Dominguez 2018 Pitching Game Logs | Baseball-Reference.com

14 outings with 0 days rest. 2 of those for more than 3 outs.
14 more outings with 1 day rest. 5 of those for more than 3 outs.

This from a pitcher in his first year of relief. It was brand new usage and it was heavy usage. It is a stupid argument to say Kapler had nothing to do with his promotion and usage. He knew he was new to relief. He just did not use him with any appropriate caution. It sure looked like overuse from any neutral perspective.

The argument that everything is luck just ignores a bunch of facts. Yes, the injury may have been luck. But the usage pattern was also inappropriate given the player's experience.

[zambonir]

Yeah but I am saying the recognition that he was a fast-rising converted started still should have come from above, and, for that matter, the Klentak front office was supposedly scripting reliever usage too. Which is to say (in both years) you could blame Chris Young!

[allentown]

Seriously, how many in-game decisions and lineup decisions was Kapler allowed to make. Didn't the higher-ups insist he follow the advice of the new Analytics Dept? Did he have any authority beyond trying to manage the morale and interaction of the various personalities on the team. The Analytics team came with a big authority boost direct from Middleton. They were young, inexperienced, and foolish but they had Middleton's fervent blessing. Kapler in Philly had to be among the most neutered managers of recent years.

[zambonir]

Well, I'm with you, but Gabe also doesn't get the job if he wasn't onboard with that approach, and likely in alignment with a lot of their decisions too. At the end of the day he still got to make the calls (like, the analytics said to pull Nola on Opening Day and he was obviously a fan of those analytics but also still got to make the decision). I just think 30 out of 30 managers would have rode Seranthony in a pennant race. It's just that the Phillies really shouldn't have seen themselves as being in one.

[andyb]

Placing blame is not the issue here. The reality is that a pitcher who had never been a reliever in his life. One who had probably never pitched at a higher level on less than 3 or 4 days rest, was allowed to pitch 28 times on 0 or 1 days rest in about 2/3 of a season. Going for more than 1 inning 1/4 of those outings.

Doesn't something sound wrong there? Mark Appel and Francisco Morales have both been allowed to pitch on 1 day rest only a handful of times this year, much less zero days rest. Nobody can ever prove that abuse hurt Seranthony. But the circumstantial evidence is pretty strong. Kapler was the manager. The usage is largely on him. Klentak permitted it to happen. So it is on his watch too. Bad luck is just not a good argument when the facts are pretty plain. Pitchers need to be trained for that usage, especially when they throw 99.

[andyb]

Apple TV tonight.....

[Philsmania]

Apple TV tonight.....

And Peacock on Sunday. A weekend streaming extravaganza.

[schillingfan]

If I didn’t say so on this board, I know that at the time, I was upset at Kepler and believed Seranthony was going to get an arm injury.

Thomson seems to be balancing his bullpen well. He is lucky that he has multiple pitchers he can slot into roles and starters that go deep. When you have one 8th inning guy, you use him every time you need him if you are desperate to win. So while I blame Kepler, I can understand not having any good choices. I think good bullpen management requires pitching skills in the relievers. The trick is mixing and matching them properly. Girardi relied too much on veterans in key roles. Thomson is not afraid to take chances.

[Austinfan]

Phillies are also pushing young pitchers to rely on their secondary pitches.

Used to be that sliders were blamed for arm issues, but I think it's becoming understood that the pressure for velo has too many pitchers overthrowing which puts more stress on their arms.

If you're throwing more changeups and sliders, you don't have to throw as many FBs, or throw them as fast, when hitters are seeing a steady diet of off speed stuff, a 95 FB looks as fast as 98 because they can't just sit on it.

[andyb]

That is all true, though I do think we like pitchers with really high spin rates on their offspeed pitches too. Probably does not protect the arm as much as one would think if they are generating lots of torque on their slider or curve.

[andyb]

Segura could be ready when his 60-day IL stint is over August 3rd:

Segura is not eligible to be activated until Aug. 3. Rob Thomson said that’s “ambitious” but Segura could definitely be on assignment next week. Also, he reached 10 years of big-league service time today. Big day. https://t.co/RRWJz1kheF

— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) July 22, 2022

[xogfog]

Schwarber is having an Adam Dunn season, except with an even worse batting average.

[schooldoc]

It's time to get Jeurys Familia off this baseball team. Mark Appel, for one, is better than Familia right now.

I'm sure someone would pick up Familia for league minimum, probably fix him, and he'd help somebody out for the last two months of the season. But it's not happening for him here, there are better options, so let's cut our losses and move on.

[zambonir]

The Sunk Cost Fallacy

I mean, they can probably afford to keep him for 8 more days, just in case he can be dumped into a deal? That's the only scenario where he's not purely a sunk cost, if you can shave a little $ off your CBT. But even using him last night trailing 4-1 - and in a difficult spot! - looks pretty dumb. And at this point yes you'd rather see Appel even in a mop-up outing

He also probably can't be fixed. Was bad last year and as Baer points out hasn't really been the same since 2019 surgery.

[andyb]

We need to make a roster move for Falter tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if it is Familia or Romero.

[zambonir]

Heck maybe it should be both (call up Appel or Sanchez for long relief, though the latter probably doesn't pair with Falter).