2022 MLB Draft Speculation

[allentown]

The people who gave up on Mead or long gone

No, they aren't. That was a year and a half ago.

Yeah, Gillick was a guy who wasn't all that good at evaluating amateur talent. He was head-over-heels smitten with Moniak. Likely his influence has a lot to do with the decline of the farm.

Our golden age of player development wasn't a function of draft position. Rollins was 2nd round. Howard was 4th or 5th. Hamels and Utley and Drabek were mid-first-round picks. The only draft position gimmee was Burrell.

I can't agree that Werth was just luck. Nor was Victorino. Somebody in the organization knew what to look for. Others initially decided Victorino not worth keeping.

We've gone on binges for fast/athletic first rounders who can't hit and then for batting-practice-power guys as first-round and big bonus international guys. We're like the football teams (Eagles have been guilty) who fall in love with combine measurables and ignore 3 years of on-field performance. We took guys who weren't hitters, or baseball players.

[phillychuck]

Moniak, according to pretty much all scouts, had an excellent hit tool and was already a plus defender in CF. This was not just the Phillies, but baseball-wide. As Billy Beane says (at least in the movie)--"You scouts don't know what you're doing; you can't predict anything. Blah-blah-blah-blah."

[zambonir]

No, they aren't. That was a year and a half ago.

November of 2019.

Our golden age of player development wasn't a function of draft position. Rollins was 2nd round. Howard was 4th or 5th. Hamels and Utley and Drabek were mid-first-round picks. The only draft position gimmee was Burrell.

I can't agree that Werth was just luck. Nor was Victorino. Somebody in the organization knew what to look for. Others initially decided Victorino not worth keeping.

Not just position, but volume - after that run they started giving up picks.

I seriously doubt Gillick read one scouting report on Werth. I believe he just called him up (on the phone, I mean). Would be more interesting to know about Vic but they also just lucked out that the Dodgers passed (thereby removing the Rule 5 stipulation and sending him to AAA for an MVP season, IIRC). Do we give the LV staff any credit for that or was Vic already there (and in part due to LA and San Diego)?

[gmwannabe]

His hit tool is hitting the straight fastball pretty well. off speed stuff he can't stay away from swinging at. is he always guessing fastball? he has got to be a little more selective. he crushed a fastball at AAA thew other night.
gm

[allentown]

November of 2019

Okay, but still hardly ancient history. We do have a less than wonderful MLB reliever to show for the trade, but Mead does seem to have been misevaluated by our development staff.

[Austinfan]

Hitting the FB weeds out the suspects at the AA ball level.
Laying off the breaking ball weeds them out at the AAA ball level.
Hitting the breaking ball is what makes you a legitimate ML hitter.

The difference is few AAA pitchers can consistently throw good breaking balls and change-ups for strikes, so if you can pick up the spin, you can get ahead in the count and jump on FBs.

At the ML level, most solid starting pitchers can throw 3 pitches for strikes, the best starting pitchers can throw them for strikes without throwing them belt high over the middle of the plate.

[zambonir]

Not ancient history but different president, different GM, different development staff. And honestly I wouldn't read that much into it, the kid was only ever in the GCL.

But sure, at the same time, if the Phillies still have a mentality that overlooks an obscure Australian signing compared to a prize LA signing or a high draft pick instead of looking at the player that's in front of them that's not good (and they did it with Vierling too). They are hardly the only team with that problem, but the Rays, of course, are a team without it. Whether they had a better evalation or Mead or just saw him as clay when they needed to clear a 40-man spot, they're better at handling the clay.

We just don't know how many people still are in this organization over the course of four development directors in 11 years, and almost as many Presidents, GMs and scouting directors! We don't even know how much has changed just in the last 18 months. Hopefully more than not, but until proven otherwise, it's the same franchise (and the same owner for almost 30 years with no real sign that he has a different vision, just a checkbook).

[bkox]

Former Vanderbilt star Kumar Rocker underwent right shoulder surgery deemed a “minor scope” in September, sources tell me and @JeffPassan . Teams were informed recently. Now healthy and looking good, Rocker is moving up draft boards.

News at ESPN: https://t.co/IEGpZjWBt6

— Kiley McDaniel ( @kileymcd ) July 3, 2022

[Squire]

I'm fully on board with Rocker as our pick if he gets there.

[zambonir]

Didn't realize Inky was up his manager

Polarizing prospect Kumar Rocker is back on the MLB draft radar. Does that...

[Squire]

BA did a mock on Friday that I missed.

A lot of people are connecting us to Barriera

Brandon Barriera
American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla.LHP
Notes:
Total Bonus Pool: $6,307,000
Pick Slot Value: $3,792,800

It’s hard to put a floor on high school pitchers in any draft class, but given how the pitching has broken down in 2022 and how scouts have been talking about Barriera’s electric left hand, maybe this range is the lower end for him. He’s certainly getting a lot of play before this pick, but could fit here if he’s available on the board. The Phillies were jammed in pretty hard to see Gonzaga righthander Gabriel Hughes late in the year, but that’s when he had some of his worst outings as well.

[fish]

ProspectsLive most recent mocked them Brock Porter.

[bigegypt0417]

Another hard throwing HS pitcher...i don't know.

[bkox]

Are there any soft throwing HS pitchers? lol

[fish]

There is one guy I’m worried about at their slot- Zack Neto. Tremendous athlete and bat to ball skills (in college anyway), but he’s got a leg kick like a right/handed Odubel, though it doesn’t look like he does it with 2 strikes.

[bigegypt0417]

I think it just seems like a bad strategy year after year.

[zambonir]

I can certainly see the argument for a throw-at-the-wall/see-what-sticks strategy. People talk about Abel and Painter like they are both guaranteed to anchor the rotation but there's like three paths out of four where that doesn't happen (injury, trade, or just not panning out). But, the more of those guys you the more likely a few make it.

Rocker is admittedly interesting for the very opposite reason. Older finished product, maybe even ready this season. High risk but already higher floor.

[fish]

People talk about Abel and Painter like they are both guaranteed to anchor the rotation but there's like three paths out of four where that doesn't happen (injury, trade, or just not panning out). But, the more of those guys you the more likely a few make it.

Plus when you are looking to make a serious trade, it always comes down to top-100 prospect trade capital and those two have at least lived up to that. Back in the late 90's early 2000's high school pitchers were the only consistent thing they could develop- Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Gavin Floyd, Ryan Madson, Kyle Kendrick, Taylor Buchholz (developed enough to provide trade value),

[fish]

I haven't been too hot on any of the top college hitters, but Vanderbilt lefthanded OF Spencer Jones is really starting to grow on me. He hadn't really done much at Vanderbilt as he dealt with arm issues from pitching. At 6'7", as a hitter there is an instant bias without seeing him, but he looks really REALLY good and he's putting up the numbers to match. I've seen him swat some opposite field homers with ease ala Ryan Howard, but he was also hitting line drives and ground balls to the left side that would prevent him from getting shifted on. He's gotten stronger, he's getting stronger, and yet his swing looks really smooth and he's hitting fastballs and breaking balls. This is all while still being a plus runner and good outfielder.

If Barber had a hand in drafting Aaron Judge, surely this guy has caught his attention.

[andyb]

The Yankees also never really bought into HS pitching that much. I know Barber was not in charge there, but it is very possible he just saw Abel and Painter as the best picks available to him and he does not necessarily favor or dislike any particular type or position. He is young enough to be well schooled in the analytic average value of HS pitching for top picks in the long run (i.e. low). We don't sign any high-priced international pitching any more too. Young pitching simply has lots of risk attached. There is always a point where an industry trend against HS pitching makes the available HS pitchers a value play (which is definitely what the Abel picked looked like at the time).