2022 MLB Draft Speculation

[zambonir]

Giving up a pick so we could add another designated hitter to what is still a wild card-caliber team at best isn't looking so good right now.

[allentown]

Phillies have the 4th smallest pool at $6,307,000

The handicap there is that they can’t go after someone that drops to them with the bonus pool to pay them. Dylan Lesko feels like a guy who’s going to drop a little but still keep his price tag that the Mets or orioles will be able to float him to a later pick.

Unless the Phillies make the playoffs, trading the second round pick for Castellanos was a mistake, and Castellanos was a better signing than Schwarber.

[zambonir]

Ha, jinx.

The whole point of signing Schwarber was that he was going to cost less money than the top guys (Freeman, Bryant, all the shortstops, and yes Castellanos), and no pick. That they went and got Castellanos instead of addressing another area after they already had Schwarber, and gave up a pick to boot, remains bizarre.

And I don't think making the playoffs in one season is going to justify it, even if they won a series. If they make the playoffs for three seasons, sure.

Paradoxically, it also makes it harder for them to improve at the deadline this year or next. It's just one less notch of minor league depth to trade from

[allentown]

Paradoxically, it also makes it harder for them to improve at the deadline this year or next. It's just one less notch of minor league depth to trade from

And a big $ commitment they can't shed.

[fish]

The whole point of signing Schwarber was that he was going to cost less money than the top guys (Freeman, Bryant, all the shortstops, and yes Castellanos), and no pick. That they went and got Castellanos instead of addressing another area after they already had Schwarber, and gave up a pick to boot, remains bizarre.

When his numbers bounce back to his career norms the bang for the buck should put that debate to bed. Sure, it wasn't great roster management, but the benefit of his offense and personality should outweigh the bad at the end of the season- and I loves me my second round picks.

[zambonir]

I guess I am just more skeptical of his upside. He wasn't that good for 2/3 of 2019 (105 OPS+) before exploding with the Cubs for 51 games (153) and he also wasn't good in the shortened 2020 (100 OPS+). And even if his bat heats up at this point he's unlikely to cross 1.0 WAR this year so long as he's on the field. Maybe we get a blockbuster season in 2023 but then it's three more years of an aging DH after that.

[andyb]

Castellanos has always been more of a doubles power guy than a home run hitter. The humidors could be hurting him more than Schwarber.

[gmwannabe]

I hate giving up the draft picks but with Casty, I was in agreement and still am. The Phils should approach the Angels and trade for the 13th. I want Porter. they should give the 17th, Jonathon Hughes and Tristan Garnett for the 13th. Done deal.
gm

[zambonir]

Cut it out GM

[flyers19rw]

With Harper unable to play, RF who else of value would the Phillies be able to put there if not for Castellanos? I'm not moaning about that signing. He's well worth a second round selection.

[schillingfan]

Good point in retrospect. What seemed superfluous now is necessary.

[zambonir]

On the contrary, I think the fact that they need to play Castellanos in RF makes it a worse signing, not a better one (compounded by the fact that Schwarber also has to take the field almost every day). That doesn't mean he isn't better than Vierling or Moniak, but right now he's not even outhitting Herrera and is significantly worse in terms of WAR.

If Castellanos' bat catches fire he'll cease to be a detriment, but won't necessarily be an asset anywhere other than DH. Just about anyone with passable defense and league-average offense would be just as good given the make-up of the roster, which needs passable OF play more than additional offense. And in the end the whole thing will likely cost the Phillies Hoskins, who may or may not be a lesser player but is definitely younger and cheaper for another season (and with no guaranteed money after that). And the Phillies could probably use better defense at 1B too! (I doubt Schwarber or Harper would provide that either).

[gmwannabe]

now you know Zamby, I have to keep trying. one of these years I'll be able to make a legitimate trade proposal. Nice crush Schwarbs!
gm

[fish]

Mayo mocked Oklahoma State RHP Justin Campbell to the Phils in his latest, also mentioning HS lefties Jackson Ferris and Robbie Snelling (he had Barreira going earlier in this version). . Campbell's current stuff is low 90s with pitchability, but at 6'7", but with some athleticism and room to fill out I could see his stuff ticking up in pro ball. Seems like a low probability the Phils would go this route.

[Squire]

Mayo always seems like the least connected guy. Agree with your take.

[Austinfan]

Meh, betting on 21 year olds to fill out and add velocity is lower probability than skinny 16 year LA pitchers.
Unless he has great secondary stuff, if he's low 90s (how many innings?) he's unlikely to be 94+ as a ML starter.
Older pitchers may add 1-2 MPH, but they rarely make big jumps.

That's the thing with Abel, Painter and Ben Brown, big bodied HS pitchers who already have good velocity can add more just by filling out and smoothing out their mechanics (learning to use their legs). Of course with HS pitchers you're projecting their secondary pitches (few have polished offerings) and whether they can stay healthy (though Howard showed the risk with college pitchers).

[Squire]

Keith Law Mock Draft v.2

1. Philadelphia Phillies: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Tri-City Valley Cats
   The Phillies are the other team (besides the Padres) that could take Rocker, even with concerns about what the Mets saw in his medical, with the goal of bringing him to the majors this year. After two straight years where they took high school pitchers, however, I don’t think they’re going in that direction again.

[andyb]

I guess that would be a Dombrowski-type move. The blowback could get him fired if it fails.

[fish]

Philadelphia Phillies: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Tri-City Valley Cats

Strange no outlets seemed to report on him after his first outing, but he's up to 18k in 11 innings allowing 1 walk, 3 er (2 hr). Despite what seems like strong control, he's thrown 4 wild pitches and hit 3 batters. From what I can gleam, his fastball is back, but his slider isn't.

[zambonir]

Law's note re: the Padres

They are also one of two teams linked to Kumar Rocker in the top 20 with the belief they’d try to use him in the majors this year as a reliever.

He seems to be implying the Phillies would do that as well if they took him. But he says "could," doesn't necessarily say he's aware of serious interest, be it in general or in that scenario.

Does Rocker pretty much have to take what he's offered or is he still hoping a team will see him differently and sweeten the $? Seems like it would be hard for the Phillies to do that with no second rounder in the pool.