2022 MLB Draft Speculation

[bigegypt0417]

Perhaps I confused things by talking about the 2023 draft...I was just sad we get to do this again.

[zambonir]

Truly a beautiful insult to injury that the Mets have lapped us so completely but we still finished better than them last year without anything to show for it.

[bigegypt0417]

It really is tough to be a Phillies fan...90% of the time.

[andyb]

Looks like Kumar Rocker is back on the mound and throwing well. I had not seen him projected in the first round in the mock drafts so far. Intriguing talent but one wonders what it would take to sign him from a second half of the first round slot.

Law: Kumar Rocker looks like a top-10 pick in return to mound

[andyb]

Prospects Live mock has us going for Drew Gilbert, a college outfielder rising lately with good advanced metrics.

2022 MLB Draft - Mock Draft 3.0 — Prospects Live

[fish]

Prospects Live mock has us going for Drew Gilbert,

I’m not entirely sure what to make of Gilbert because every video of him seems to be him crushing pullside home runs- but he’s hit .373 with only ~30k/30walks, so there must be a whole lot more to see. Certainly looks like he plays bigger than 5’9” 185lbs.

He’s described as being “firey” with enough quickness and instincts for center and a low 90s fastball off the mound. Seems like a very similar profile to last years Sal Frelich- and that’s not a bad thing.

[gmwannabe]

if this would be any year other than last year and this year, we'd be in the middle of one of the longest threads that we have during the year. tell me why again was the draft moved?
gm

[fish]

if this would be any year other than last year and this year, we'd be in the middle of one of the longest threads that we have during the year. tell me why again was the draft moved?
gm

While disappointing, it does make sense to do it after the college World Series to get longer looks and a chance to watch in combines.

[andyb]

Not too dissimilar from Adam Haseley also. Though drafting such a player at 17 makes more sense than at 8. Always thought Haseley was an overdraft. Note Haseley is picking it up in AAA with the White Sox now. 777 OPS for the year and 904 the last 28 days. Had a brief cup of coffee in the majors earlier in the year but should get another opportunity if he keeps playing well.

[allentown]

It does put it after the CWS, allowing teams to judge which prospect arms may have been damaged. I guess it also makes a good, low-cost scouting experience, like college football's Senior Bowl and Combine.

[zambonir]

But wasn't the main reason they did it to eliminate the expense of having short-season teams?

[allentown]

That was the reason they reduced the draft to ten rounds during Covid and why they have reduced the number of minor league players an organization can control. Neither of these required a later draft. We have short-season teams playing now. I think baseball would prefer a largely collegiate drat. That farms out some of the development costs and reduces some of the uncertainty on draft day. I think they also didn't at all mind the reduced time to negotiate a deal.

[zambonir]

But aren't the first-year appearances now cursory and only in the complex league, which isn't really an actual level? Whereas before guys would go to Williamsport, and some would even get a short call-up to low A if they were ready. I seem to recall they maybe don't even start getting paid in their draft year (other than the bonus), if they are merely in Clearwater for "workouts".

btw, we sure haven't heard much about the MLB Draft League this year. Which I believe just started (I guess that timing does make sense).

[Squire]

Not Sure Whether I posted this before but just so we have it in the thread somewhere. Phillies have the 4th smallest pool at $6,307,000

Phillies Picks (and associated pool slot value):
1 (17) - $3,792,800
2 - Forfeited for Signing Nick Castellanos
3 (93) - $659,800
4(122) - $492,800
5(152) - $368,100
6(182) - $279,500
7(212) - $220,400
8(242) - $178,900
9(272) - $160,700
10(302) - $151,700
11(332) -
12(362)
13(392)
14(422)
15(452)
16(482)
17(512)
18(542)
19(572)
20(602)

[fish]

Phillies have the 4th smallest pool at $6,307,000

The handicap there is that they can’t go after someone that drops to them with the bonus pool to pay them. Dylan Lesko feels like a guy who’s going to drop a little but still keep his price tag that the Mets or orioles will be able to float him to a later pick.

[zambonir]

So Rocker is probably out too huh?

[Squire]

MLBPipeline Mock through our pick

1. Orioles - Jackson Holliday, SS, HS
2. DBacks - Druw Jones, OF, HS
3. Rangers - Elijah Green, OF, HS
4. Pirates - Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly
5. Nationals - Kevin Parada, C, GaTech
6. Marlins - Termarr Johnson, OF, HS
7. Cubs - Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola JC
8. Twins - Zach Neto, SS, Campbell
9. Royals - Justin Crawford, OF, HS
10. Rockies - Jacob Berry, 3B/OF, LSU
11. Mets - Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech
12. Tigers - Gavin Cross, OF, VaTech
13. Brock Porter, RHP, HS - first pitcher taken
14. Mets - Daniel Susac, C, Arizona
15. Padres - Dylan Lesko, RHP, HS
16. Guardians - Jett Williams, SS, HS
17. PHILLIES - BRANDON BARREIRA - LHP, HS
    The Phillies used their previous two first-rounders on high-school arms Mick Abel and Andrew Painter, and that demographic might provide the best value at No. 17. Prep left-handers Barriera, Snelling and Jackson Ferris are ranked in any variety of orders by different clubs, and Philadelphia might have its pick of all three.

[fish]

So Rocker is probably out too huh?

Well, I can't see that a guy with medical questions would turn down 3.5 million to sit out another year. Actually, I think that kind of money is probably the best he can hope for. What I haven't heard, and what they may keep private, is if they are going to release his medicals before the draft- if they do that and someone picks him, then at least he's entitled to a minimum offer. Otherwise they can't recover the lost pick if they don't sign him. If teams are left to fly blind without a physical on him before the draft it's hard to imagine he doesn't slip, to a team with multiple picks who is better suited to take on the risk.

[andyb]

Rocker really feels like he goes to a team with an extra pick or two, likely in the compensation rounds. I think he signs and it might not be for much more than slot, but getting him on a minimum deal because of his medicals seems far-fetched. He will have to provide some medical information to get drafted high, because if he does not sign this time the only way he gets paid is probably to go to Japan or Korea.

[allentown]

A lot of the appearances were also cursory in the past, especially the top guys who often took a while to sign. But how does that significantly affect cost. The guys in the rookie leagues earn a pittance and their numbers are effectively capped by the limit on players under team control. Delaying the draft isn't going to change the number of players the team has to pay. That was set when the minor leagues were contracted and the player limit imposed. It just changes which players will be paid, especially this time of year.