2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[David_Criss]

The Cubs trade Darvish for Davies and 4 of their current top 20 prospects. They also let Lester and Schwarber walk - they seem to be doing ok this year.

Gregorious and Segura being hurt has definitely been felt. Who knows if they can remain only a "few games out" and get those two bats back they could win some games in August and Sept. and end up in the playoffs.

That is a huge if.

The other sellers are Anaheim, Texas, Minnesota, Detroit, KC, Baltimore, Pitt, Colorado and Arizona. That is the competition for the Phillies to win a trade.

Do the Phillies trade Hoskins now? Who replaces him at 1B? What about the DH next season? Same with Segura? It would be signaling giving up on this season, but they are hot now, well when not injured and could fetch a decent return.
I can see Cleveland and Milwaukee having an interest in Hoskins. Milwaukee might have an interest in Segura, too moving Urias over. Would the Cubs, Rays or A's be in a position to trade for Segura? Is Herrera in their future plans?

Other than those three pickings are slim: Archie Bradley, Andrew McCutchen, Velasquez, Knapp, Miller, Neris...Then its Joyce, Hale, Anderson, Kintzler and Moore.

Eflin, Nola and Wheeler are a darn good trio and I would hate to break it up, but if they aren't going to compete in the next two-years and any of those arms can bring in a haul, you have to listen.

[David_Criss]

VV is a fifth starter and as a fifth starter isn't horrible.

[Taudawg]

Do the Phillies trade Hoskins now? Who replaces him at 1B? What about the DH next season? Same with Segura? It would be signaling giving up on this season, but they are hot now, well when not injured and could fetch a decent return.
I can see Cleveland and Milwaukee having an interest in Hoskins. Milwaukee might have an interest in Segura, too moving Urias over. Would the Cubs, Rays or A's be in a position to trade for Segura? Is Herrera in their future plans?

Trade Hoskins? Yes
Bohm slides to 1b, Segura to 3b. Better defense at 1b and 3b with that move. Leave Bohm at 3b and Segura at 2b and make Brad Miller 1b, or platoon Miller with Realmuto at 1b and give half the catching duty to Marchan. Still better defense than present. (I'm convinced Marchan is ready to play good D and hit at MLB) Hoskins is not irreplaceable and has value in trade. He is popular in Philly which is likely why this doesn't get discussed more. Got nothing against him, just looking to deal from position of strength.

[andyb]

Maton and Williams might actually be a decent L/R platoon at 2B with the other being a flexible defensive reserve off the bench when not starting. We probably need to realize that Maton and Williams are not the SS solution, so better to just try to solve 2B with the platoon, 1B with Bohm, and 3B with Segura for the rest of the year.

Trading Hoskins would not be a necessity (and with the DH he is actually more valuable to a team), but they really do need to look at which players can be part of the next contending team and I really think Hoskins is pretty replaceable. If some other team has a short term need at 1B or DH he should definitely be considered for a trade.

[bkeich]

Bohm slides to 1b

Bohm is a negative WAR player at 1B I assume. He just hasnt showed the bat to be able to succeed at 1B, last season was a SSS and not sustainable.

He has to either play 3B or a corner OF position to be a positive player. That isnt a huge standard to reach. 1B needs to be for players that have either aged out of playing in the field and we are stuck with the contract or guys that can consistently put up 120 or more OPS+ players to succeed.

[Taudawg]

I hope they don't go the route of a specific full-time DH. Okay if you have an elite one like JD Martinez, but not good use of money otherwise. DH can be a way to give everyone time off the field. Might be the only way to keep Bryce or Didi in the lineup next year.

[andyb]

Bohm is a negative WAR player at 1B I assume. He just hasnt showed the bat to be able to succeed at 1B, last season was a SSS and not sustainable.

The assumption of moving him from 3B to 1B is that he is a negative dWAR player at 3B so he could be positive at 1B. If he is a 3 WAR offensively and -1 defensively at 3B (+2 WAR) he could be a 3.0 to 3.5 WAR player cumulatively at 1B.

Bohm's bat still needs to be close to what it was last year for him to be a good player anywhere, but the move to 1B would not hurt him if it improved his defensive WAR by at least +1.0. He still needs to be an 850 OPS bat anywhere he is to be playable at either 1B or 3B.

[zambonir]

they really do need to look at which players can be part of the next contending team and I really think Hoskins is pretty replaceable

Right now if I were looking at which players can be part of the next contending team Nola, Wheeler and Realmuto wouldn't be on the list either. But if said team is in 2022 and 2023 there can be a place for Hoskins, or not.

And yeah, Bohm's probably even worse in LF, and 3B for that matter, if he doesn't hit more... and not much good at 1B or DH either. If the bat doesn't come back figuring out where to play him won't be an issue, any more than it is for Kingery. I sure hope he finds his way but who would have thought he'd be no better than Franco in 2021 (and Franco is back to being awful, but Bohm is worse).

I was listening to WIP today and they made it sound like Harper had called out the team and front office but the comments I saw weren't that incendiary. Just that he recognized the fact that the franchise doesn't really have enough minor depth to improve the team significantly at the deadline, so it's still on the guys who are already here.

[BostonRoss]

Bohm is a negative WAR player at 1B I assume. He just hasnt showed the bat to be able to succeed at 1B, last season was a SSS and not sustainable.

The assumption of moving him from 3B to 1B is that he is a negative dWAR player at 3B so he could be positive at 1B. If he is a 3 WAR offensively and -1 defensively at 3B (+2 WAR) he could be a 3.0 to 3.5 WAR player cumulatively at 1B.

Bohm's bat still needs to be close to what it was last year for him to be a good player anywhere, but the move to 1B would not hurt him if it improved his defensive WAR by at least +1.0. He still needs to be an 850 OPS bat anywhere he is to be playable at either 1B or 3B.

If Bohm put up the same offensive numbers as a 1B as he did as a 3B, wouldn't his oWAR be lower? Wouldn't a replacement 1B put up better numbers than a replacement 3B? I took a quick look at 2019, and the four 1B who had oWAR values around 3.0 averaged an OPS+ of 126; the four 3B who had oWAR values around 3.0 averaged an OPS+ of 113. So generally speaking, a 1B has to put up better numbers than a 3B to get the same oWAR.

On the defensive side, I don't think a 1B can accumulate much dWAR there just aren't enough defensive plays to be made at 1B other than catching throws. No 1B in the past 100 years has averaged even +2.0 dWAR for his entire career. I could find only six 1B in the past 50 years who even had a positive career dWAR (three are active and could decline over time). I think the best we could hope for from Bohm as a 1B is zero dWAR.

So to be a +3 WAR player, Bohm would have be a +3 oWAR player. He would have to put up around a 126 OPS+ (maybe higher unless he can stop hitting into double plays). Currently his career OPS+ (with only about 2/3 of a season to look at) is 98. He could certainly improve given his age and inexperience, but he would need to improve a lot.

[zambonir]

Bohm was a 139 OPS+ last year and is a 71 this year, so let's hope he does ultimately meet in the middle... but that might not be enough for a 1B or 3B who is a defensive liability.

It is almost too much to contemplate, the possibility that the high #1 picks from 2016, 2017 and 2018 could all fail, and 2015 - when Kingery was supposed to make up for Randolph - too.

[David_Criss]

"Prospects" to trade to upgrade aren't exactly big names in the Phillies system.
Abel and Stott - only if they win a ton and are buying at the deadline and it is for a great return - very unlikely.
After that:
Fransico Morales (3) on the 40-man - will he be able to be the solid no. 3 starter the Phils hope he will be in a few years?
Marchan (4) I think will be a great catcher in the bigs, but blocked by Realmuto and O'Hoppe is in the system, too

After that it is a pretty drastic drop off. Sanchez, Jones, Medina, Maton, Haseley, Maton could all be traded and not missed a ton, if they are buyers and open up some 40-man space, but those aren't the types of names to get a top player back.

[Philsmania]

It may be a little too soon to say that Bohm could be another bust. However, he does seem to have a bigger, less compact swing with a bigger hole in it than he had last yeat which is concerning. Could they be repeating the Kingery mistake, sacrificing a fundamentally good swing at the launch angle alter (or standing by and letting the player do it to himself)?

[BostonRoss]

Bohm was a 139 OPS+ last year and is a 71 this year, so let's hope he does ultimately meet in the middle... but that might not be enough for a 1B or 3B who is a defensive liability.

I have a hard time putting much predictive weight on Bohm’s 2020 stats. It was the most unusual of seasons, and it was only 44 games for Bohm. His accomplishments last year have meaning, but I can’t give it the same weight as what he’s does this year, even if it was the same number of PA (and of course he has a lot more PA this year already).

But as I originally said, his total MLB experience is about 2/3 of a full season. That’s not enough to project his entire offensive career. He could still produce enough to be a major league 1B. He might even be able to improve his defense at 3B to stay there.

[bkeich]

Bohm is a negative WAR player at 1B I assume. He just hasnt showed the bat to be able to succeed at 1B, last season was a SSS and not sustainable.

The assumption of moving him from 3B to 1B is that he is a negative dWAR player at 3B so he could be positive at 1B. If he is a 3 WAR offensively and -1 defensively at 3B (+2 WAR) he could be a 3.0 to 3.5 WAR player cumulatively at 1B.

Bohm's bat still needs to be close to what it was last year for him to be a good player anywhere, but the move to 1B would not hurt him if it improved his defensive WAR by at least +1.0. He still needs to be an 850 OPS bat anywhere he is to be playable at either 1B or 3B.

BR points out what I think are some of the flaws in your analysis in his post, I wont bother repeating them.

The other point is that there is a loss of opportunity in moving Bohm. 1B is a good place to be an aging contract (like someday Realmuto and Harper will be). It is also where you can improve a team easily by acquiring pretty much any player that has offensive ability and putting him there (this particularly is true for contending teams and deadline deals). As long as they are not Jimmy Rollins height pretty much any ML player can at least be below average at 1B.

By putting a young player there you eliminate the easiest way to improve an offense, so to use the position for a young player you need it to be a young Ryan Howard. A guy who will center your offense. Bohm is a nice player, but he is not that type of hitter, he is not going to have 150 OPS+ seasons. He is not going to contend for MVP. He just isnt that type of hitter, despite last years SSS getting everyone excited.

Bohm is more of a good solid player that you need a few of on your team. He is not Schmidt, Howard (in his prime), Thome, etc. Putting him at 1B to me almost dooms him to be a below average player because his bat cannot equal what you need from that position.

He needs to improve at 3B, and that seems very reasonably possible because so many of his mistakes seem like they are more concentration then physical skill. He is still a young player, and young players make over-aggressive mistakes sometimes. Almost every player has more errors and dumb plays in their early 20s than in their prime years. To me they have to stick with Bohm at 3B, he has the arm strength and physical tools, he will get better. Putting him at 1B GREATLY decreases his value and really puts us in a bind for when Realmuto will need to be playing there more often.

[Squire]

David Hale DFA'd
Sam Coonrod to the 10 Day IL
Nick Maton Recalled
Neftali Perez added to the 40 man and called up
Enyel De Los Santos added for the DH

[andyb]

I think they had telegraphed Perez as earning a chance. I kind of wish they thought a little more of De Los Santos but I guess if he has options he is almost an extra man on the staff that will just fill in when needed to cycle guys on and off.

At some point they had to choose between Hale and Moore and Anderson as they can't keep hiding 2 on the IL all season. This is move 1. They'll probably have to move on from Moore and Anderson at some point too if they don't come back. They'll need a 40-man spot to bring Anderson back.

[David_Criss]

David Hale DFA'd
Sam Coonrod to the 10 Day IL
Nick Maton Recalled
Neftali Perez added to the 40 man and called up
Enyel De Los Santos added for the DH

With Appel, Hernandez and Warren moved to AAA, I was wondering who would join the Phillies. Hammer has thrown the ball pretty well, too at AAA.

[mdougherty12]

It may be a little too soon to say that Bohm could be another bust. However, he does seem to have a bigger, less compact swing with a bigger hole in it than he had last yeat which is concerning. Could they be repeating the Kingery mistake, sacrificing a fundamentally good swing at the launch angle alter (or standing by and letting the player do it to himself)?

If Bohm is trying to increase his launch angle, it hasn't been working. His batted ball profile hasn't changed at all between 2020 and 2021. Bohm is near the top of MLB in both GB% and LD%, and consequently very near the bottom in FB%. Looking at Bohm's page on Baseball Savant (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/alec-bohm-664761?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb), one doesn't find huge differences in most of the numbers between 2020 and 2021. His K rate is up a bit and BB rate is down; his BABIP is down significantly, but the .410 BABIP last year was never going to be sustainable. His average exit velocity is up, and is quite high, but his barrel % is down. He's been unlucky with his results. His expected wOBA is a good bit higher than his actual wOBA, but it's still lower than one would hope for.

Bohm is probably going to have a hard time hitting for real power unless he starts getting the ball in the air more frequently. If he's not going to hit for power, he really needs to cut down on the strikeouts.

[bkox]

If the #Phillies need a closer tonight, this weekend, etc., it will be José Alvarado. Hector Neris is out of the role for now.

— Todd Zolecki ( @ToddZolecki ) June 25, 2021

[David_Criss]

Coonrod was in position at one time and with Kintzler falling off the rails, Alvarado can remind us all of MItch Williams in 93 - this will be fun.