2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[BostonRoss]

Hard to be a Cy Young winner if his win totals are single digits thanks to lackluster hitting when he pitches.

At the moment, deGrom has only one more win than Wheeler.

[bkox]

Hard to be a Cy Young winner if his win totals are single digits thanks to lackluster hitting when he pitches.

Wins have become less of a need in the CY Young race. DeGrom has won twice with records of 11-8 and 10-9

[zambonir]

I reckon Wheeler could at least give DeGrom a race if the Phillies stay alive in the division race all season.

[California_Dreamin]

They won't do it but if I were the Phillies I would look to trade Segura right now, when his value is at its highest. Tampa Bay sure would look to move a Segura now and try and get back two younger players, one a position player and one a hurler. I still believe that if Kingery was allowed to simply play 2nd base and KNEW the spot was his he would be fine and if that failed to work Williams could be given an opportunity to win the spot.

Segura's value is unlikely to ever be higher, he is playing at a near All Star level right now and might look quite enticing to a team that feels it is one solid hitting infielder away from a playoff berth.

Sadly, my guess is that the Phils will keep Segura, he will regress to the norm, and the Phils will someday look to move him when his value is at its lowest.

[zambonir]

I don't think his value as is high as you think it is though. They would have to pick up nearly all his salary this year and 50% of it next year to get even just a decent return.

And they actually need him. If the team is still heading for 81 wins anyway, going with Kingery and Williams wouldn't be the end of the world (and I still think Didi needs to move to 2B next year on top of that) but right now trading him makes the team worse, and the best value for the Phillies' $ is to have him on the team. And there probably aren't even enough buyers/pressure on anyone to make that move right now. Five weeks from now, we'll see.

Also he has a no-trade clause and would probably want a bonus to waive it. If he were a truly valuable player, he'd insist the new team guarantee his option year.

They can probably get the same return for him in the off-season, but that is still going to be a gamble with the question marks about Kingery and Didi.

[Taudawg]

Segura in 2022 is a mystery. 2021 Segura is on his way to being a 4+ WAR player and by modern WAR values, that more than pays his salary for both this year and next. If they expect to contend the rest of the way, now is not the time to be experimenting with a position that is currently settled.

Hypothetical - who would be in the market for Jean Segura? It's not clear to me there would be enough competition to acquire Segura the Phillies could net anything positive.

[zambonir]

You would think those two paragraphs contradict each other - that as a 4+WAR player Segura could help just about any contender, including as a DH, and be worth the salary. But the way teams manage their rosters and payrolls is more complicated than that. I agree, there's probably not much demand for him and the Phillies need him right now more than they need whatever his trade value is. If you could actually get a package built around a Top 10 prospect for him, different story perhaps.

As much as I appreciate CD's point that a team like the Rays would get ahead of this, a team like the Rays wouldn't have had $30 million committed to a player like Segura in the first place. And even if he was cheaper but had his big salary bump coming, they'd do that deal in the off-season, not while they were in contention mid-season.

Of course the Rays would also trade Wheeler this coming off-season (again, if he was a controllable player, they don't sign players like Wheeler to big contracts in the first place).

[andyb]

But remember, any player can be traded. Almost every trade has money going one way or the other. If the Phillies fell out of contention and were selling then Segura would have lots and lots of value because he is playing well.

Do you think DD would think twice about sending over $15 million to pick up a couple of top 100 prospects? That is why we brought him here. To tell owners what they need to do to win from somebody who has actually done it. Klentak's handling of money in trades was one of his biggest problems. He thought he was being cute managing around the luxury tax threshold and he gave up talent left and right for nothing (like throwing Santana in the Segura trade).

[Austinfan]

Segura started adjusting last year, he's figured out that he has to be more selective at the plate, and actually executed that strategy. BB% 10.6 last year, 7.1 this year, both career highs (rookie season 7.2 in 166 PA). He's been about a 3 WAR player on average the last five years, more than earning his contract, and he should be able to post at least 2 WAR next year (paying his $14M deal). BABIP this year at .362 is a tad bit high.

[BostonRoss]

Segura is valuable because he is consistently good on offense and defense, and he plays the middle infield.

Yet he has been traded four times. And his teams have never made it to the postseason. Something seems off.

I think if he is traded, it signals the Phillies have given up on 2021. I don't think the Philllies are going to wave the white flag right now. if they fall out of contention, I think it's a near lock that Segura will be gone for prospects, regardless of the lack of in-house middle infield options.

[Taudawg]

However, if they trade Segura now, you are bailing on both 2021 and probably 2022. It's a rebuild move, because you create a new hole at 2b you can't say for certain the Phils can fill for 2022. A team that needs a 2b isn't going to send you a top 2b prospect at the AA or AAA level - that team has their answer close at hand. The upcoming 2B free agent is weak so I wouldn't count on finding improvement there. Maybe you fill in with Maton, Williams or Kingery....can you say for certain (before July 31) one of these three will provide you adequate results in 2022. Can they even match Segura so-so defense?

I think Segura is close to not tradable despite his all-star level hitting this year. Yes every player is tradable. It's the trade market that makes him hard to trade - yet I hope I'm wrong. Maybe the Phillies eat a bunch of Segura's salary and get a couple blue chips for him. I don't believe that's how it works anymore. The Cliff Lee to Seattle trade is the modern standard. 3 or 4 so-so prospects with high ceilings, but nothing ranked in MLB top 100.

[andyb]

Tampa would not trade Segura in our situation now. The Willy Adames trade was all about clearing the spot for Wander Franco AND them having a couple of current alternatives still better than guys like Maton on our side. It also got them bullpen help for this year, so a win-win.

Now Tampa would be aggressive about trading a Segura when they are having even a .500 season. They don't try to make the wild card by a game. They are trying to build a team for the future. With our financial resources we probably don't have to be aggressive about trading really early. But if we are 10 games out at the All Star break and a couple of good deals came that would help us reload as a slightly younger team next year I think we would do that.

We can tread water with a $200 million payroll better than Tampa, but there is a time to cut bait. I think weak deadlines were a Klentak specialty. Either we did not trade for enough to make a difference. OR we failed to make trades when we should have. I think DD is not going to make those mistakes. He'll be much further in when we try to compete. And much further out and trading everybody when we can't win in a certain year. Boston made those decisions pretty quickly and we just haven't in recent years.

[zambonir]

Segura is just a complicated case. If we're out of contention, you still have to decide whether you want to spend $10 million or so to get prospects for him, or $14 million to still have him on your team next year.

Now, if you're planning to sign a free agent SS and confident you can get one, that changes things a little bit. You could make Didi your 2B and also hope that Kingery's in the mix. Of course we also might not have a 3B.

I don't know that I'm confident Dombrowski will be any less of a fence-sitter than Klentak was, given the state of the team. They don't look good enough to win a championship but they also don't look bad enough to throw in the towel. If they reach the point where they are trading Cutch, Neris and Velasquez, you certainly have to consider trading Herrera, and if you can also offload one of Didi or Segura you probably should. But will they sell that aggressively? The idea of an unusual or creative deadline deal, with bigger names or money on both sides, is probably a fantasy

And then there's also the early trend of truly terrible attendance, and the labor stoppage X-factor. It will be another interesting off-season no matter how it goes.

[bkox]

The Phillies are optimistic they can correct some “mechanical inefficiencies” that have affected Spencer Howard. They are committed to the current plan, although it might involve a new piggyback partner Monday at Dodger Stadium: https://t.co/DZK4EOZ6rl

— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) June 11, 2021

[HopeSpringsEternal]

although it might involve a new piggyback partner Monday at Dodger Stadium:

Suarez?

[bkox]

Suarez?

Well now you made me actually read the article...

1 sec

reads article

Nope.. Article says Suarez has earned being used in the later innings.. especially with Alvarado being shaky.. so its Bailey Falter:

So, Bailey Falter could become Howard’s new sidekick. Falter had pitched so well as a starter at Triple-A Lehigh Valley that he pushed the Phillies to consider him for a big-league role. Falter had a 1.91 ERA in 28 1/3 innings with 41 strikeouts and seven walks. He was slated to start Thursday night for Lehigh Valley but didn’t, instead entering the game in the middle of the third inning. He recorded four outs, threw 26 pitches, and that was that.

This was the organization’s way of preparing Falter to be deployed in that piggyback role with the Phillies. It could happen as soon as Monday at Dodger Stadium, according to two team sources. The Phillies are intrigued by the idea of pairing the righty Howard and lefty Falter every fifth day because they present different styles. Howard, when right, is sitting 95 mph. Falter lives in the low-90s but has a deceptive motion. Analysts — and not just ones from the Phillies — are curious as to how the 6-foot-4 lefty Falter has the longest average release extension by any pitcher in the majors this season. That means no pitcher releases the ball closer to home plate than Falter. It makes a 92 mph fastball look much harder, or a breaking ball have crisper “late” action.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Wow - thanks. I would not have guessed that answer in 5 tries.

[bkox]

Wow - thanks. I would not have guessed that answer in 5 tries.

Yeah caught me by surprise too

[andyb]

I think someone on the minor league threads mentioned they skipped Falter this week. Now we know why.

[zambonir]

There's definitely been stories briefly mentioning that Falter was the next starter up, ahead of Medina too. So this is sort of that. Also not surprising they want Suarez to be a higher-leverage guy, with Romero gone and Moore also still injured (and no reason to think he's good enough either).