2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[zambonir]

Honestly I think it's just a combination of bad luck and his style of play/body type, and so many players don't take their team's training advice anyway (whether it is strength/conditioning or hitting).

The only thing extraordinary about his particular circumstance is that he got as far as he did. Many like him would have just washed out already and we wouldn't have seen them play enough to experience the injuries further. The only difference between him and someone like Alther is Quinn couldn't even put it together long enough to have develop fully or have one good year (or even half-year). And it remains to be seen if Haseley can stay healthy.

I assume his rehab and medical is covered even after he ends up going off the 40. At that point his new team takes it over if he's offered an early minor league deal, or he's on his own. Can't imagine a guaranteed deal is in the cards (and maybe he can get a better major league salary with a minors deal).

[Dirk41]

This team reminds you of those over the hill Tigers teams minus all the players that made those teams fun to watch.

[zambonir]

Worst Phillies start since 2017.

In the end it's not too complicated. They'll either get out of this swoon/get healthy, or they'll be out of it by July 1. Unfortunately the opportunity to make an early trade, whether to upgrade or shake things up, just isn't really there these days, especially not for a team where the vets are difficult to salary-match and the youngsters are few and far between (or at their lowest possible value).

[Philsmania]

Looking back, sometimes, it seems like Gillick triaged 2006 to undo a number of Wade's mistakes. In a similar vein, I wonder if, to some extent, Dombrowski is triaging 2021 in an effort to undo a number of Klentak's mistates.

By my account, the Phillies have about $45 million coming off the books this offseason season.
$20 million with McCutchen
$16 million with the up-to-now ill-fated one-year signings of Anderson, Moore, Bradley and Kintzler (which are on Dombrowski but were out of necessity due to Klentak's mess)
$5 million with Neris
$4 million with Velasquez

Herrera is a wild card. If they decline that option, it's up to $55 million off the books. But, with the way he's played, do they pick up that option (which would cost them $11.5 million), decline it with the hope of signing him for less or let him walk?

I think rather than making a huge splash with a Bryant or a Scherzer on the free agent market who would probably eat up between $20-$30 million all by themselves), spread that money around wisely to fill a number of the holes they have.

Move Bohm to LF and sign a modest 3B who fields well?

A good starting pitcher for Wheeler-type money?

[Philsmania]

Worst Phillies start since 2017.

In the end it's not too complicated. They'll either get out of this swoon/get healthy, or they'll be out of it by July 1. Unfortunately the opportunity to make an early trade, whether to upgrade or shake things up, just isn't really there these days, especially not for a team where the vets are difficult to salary-match and the youngsters are few and far between (or at their lowest possible value).

I'm curious to see what their record is after sixty games, to see if it's better or worse than last year's 28-32.

[zambonir]

I reckon they are very likely to match it.

25-29 now.

1-1 @Cincinnati
2-1 hosting the Nats

Then it will turn on the first game against Atlanta.

Obviously actually winning a road series that they're already down in, or a sweep of Nats, would be a pleasant surprise and step back in the right direction. Do worse, and they'll be worse than last year.

I thought about 2006 as well - though also the trade deadline, when Gillick dumped Bell, Abreu and Lidle but then turned around and got Moyer when the team turned out to still be in it. Obviously you can't do that in August anymore.

But unlike in 2006 they don't have any young or improving players. Hopefully Bohm. Hoskins is what he is. Didi and Segura and Harper and Realmuto, collectively, are not likely to get better. The picture would look very different if Kingery, Haseley and even Moniak were ready to step into the line-up. And Howard is still the most important piece really. If he's ready to give them inninings next year you don't need a Wheeler-level FA on a 4-5 year deal, just a decent #3-4 type on a three-year deal (or even a one-year deal if you pick better than this year).

No doubt the opportunity and $ is there to remake the roster, and surely they will also trade one of Didi, Segura or Kingery.

I suspect we'll miss Hector when he's gone, based on how miserably they've done bringing in other relievers, especially as free agents. There's also something to be said for staying healthy. But he's not a kid anymore either.

[andyb]

I suspect we'll miss Hector when he's gone, based on how miserably they've done bringing in other relievers, especially as free agents

I wonder what the market is for Hector. He has been very durable and good but not great. 3 years/$30 million? Top of the market was Hendriks at 3/54. Closer comps for Hector would be Trevor May (2/15.5), Blake Treinen (2/17.5), Brad Hand (1/10.5), Trevor Rosenthal (1/11). Hector will be 33 next year so he won't be young. But he has also never been below 65 IP in a season. And post pandemic there may be more 2 and 3 year deals.

I think he'll do well in free agency, though there is also some incentive for the Phillies to keep him and nobody else really looking like a closer of the future at the moment (though obviously the light could go on for Alvarado and Coonrod hopefully). Obviously teams are wary of 33 year old relievers who have never been seriously hurt. But I'd also love to see the track record of guys with 6 years of health against the track record of guys with 6 years of various IL stints.

[Taudawg]

I believe Bohm will be just as bad defensively in LF. His best position is ultimately 1B. Doesn't mean they need to trade Hoskins (but for right return I would) as universal DH is most certainly coming in 2022.

[andyb]

Bohm's average sprint speed is 27.8 this year which is above average (he is clearly busting in down the line on all those DPs!). Essentially the same as Herrera, Harper, and Didi. The problem with Hoskins out there started with his lack of speed. Bohm is faster. Has a decent arm. And the mechanics of a quick release are easier in the OF because you have more time to position the body. Tool-wise Bohm could easily be an average OF with some practice.

[zambonir]

The problem is Didi and possibly Segura and Bohm himself also need to get DH time, as does Harper and Realmuto just for resting purposes. Most teams prefer to do it that way, but an older, poor defensive team especially. So I don't know that you can really hide anyone. I do think Bohm can be a better LF than Hoskins, and maybe Burrell too. He's tall, he moves pretty well, the biggest thing would be reads and instinct.

I think Hector is in that May/Treinen range. Too old and inconsistent to get the three-year or "proven closer" FA deal. Though perhaps we will be surprised to learn that baseball views him differently/more objectively than those of us who have lived through his peaks and valleys (when in fact, most relievers have them). At the same time, he's never had to close a single important game in his career, and that's always been the question - if the Phillies were ever good enough to be in a division race down to the wire, or a playoff series, would his worst tendencies or that one bad game catch up with him when there's no tomorrow?

[Taudawg]

Bohm's average sprint speed is 27.8 this year which is above average (he is clearly busting in down the line on all those DPs!). Essentially the same as Herrera, Harper, and Didi. The problem with Hoskins out there started with his lack of speed. Bohm is faster. Has a decent arm. And the mechanics of a quick release are easier in the OF because you have more time to position the body. Tool-wise Bohm could easily be an average OF with some practice.

Glad you are confident about that last part. If the Phillies are intent on improving the defense, I don't think this is where I would start.

[Philsmania]

I thought about 2006 as well - though also the trade deadline, when Gillick dumped Bell, Abreu and Lidle but then turned around and got Moyer when the team turned out to still be in it. Obviously you can't do that in August anymore.

I always thought of 2006 Wild Card push to be something that was unexpected. The team caught on fire after the front office threw in the towel, giving Gillick the opportunity to make some minor moves as sellers (Moyer, Conine, Jose Hernandez, Randall Simon), yet one of those moves turned out to be very significant in Moyer.

[Philsmania]

Bohm's average sprint speed is 27.8 this year which is above average (he is clearly busting in down the line on all those DPs!). Essentially the same as Herrera, Harper, and Didi. The problem with Hoskins out there started with his lack of speed. Bohm is faster. Has a decent arm. And the mechanics of a quick release are easier in the OF because you have more time to position the body. Tool-wise Bohm could easily be an average OF with some practice.

Burrell was a thirdbaseman in college and originally penciled in for first base at the ML level (just like Bohm) but became a leftfielder instead. Just using the eye test, Bohm appears to be faster than Burrell ever was. For that reason, I think he could be better than Burrell was out there and leagues better than Hoskins was.

[Dirk41]

How Alec Bohm isn't a better overall athlete with his body type is a mystery.

[David_Criss]

Remember Burrell was replaced by a backup SS in Bruntlet for defensive help in 08. Bohm will be a much better leftfielder and his bat will come around. If Gregorious were to come back they could send Bohm to AAA to play LF with Torreyes/Miller manning 3B.

Looking beyond that at potential buyers and what the Phillies have to trade, I just don’t see to much excitement.

Gregorious – possibly Tampa or Oakland could be interested, but remember Trevor Story is on the market, too

Neris – possibly San Francisco, Toronto or Seattle – are the Cubs shopping their Kimbrel?

McCutchen – possibly Yankees, Chi Sox, Cleveland, Seattle, Milwaukee or San Fran (Gabe loves him) – but is he an upgrade over what any of them have? He brings the “experience” to a young clubhouse

Segura – Cubs or Dodgers, maybe – maybe even Seattle, the Yanks might be moving LeMahieu to 1B

Hoskins – Would Boston view him as an upgrade? Cleveland?

Kintzler, Hale, VV, Anderson, Bradley, Knapp just don’t have much, if any trade value

Eflin, Nola and Wheeler are only guaranteed to be together the next two-seasons, so the window isn’t opened to wide right now.

I hope DD can work some magic.

[Philsmania]

McCutchen – possibly Yankees, Chi Sox, Cleveland, Seattle, Milwaukee or San Fran (Gabe loves him) – but is he an upgrade over what any of them have? He brings the “experience” to a young clubhouse

I checked the Giants' roster on baseball-reference a few days ago. It's eye-popping how old the Giants are. Guys up and down that roster--including WAR leaders Posey, Belt and Longoria--are well north of thirty. I think the Giants may be a team of guys going for their proverbial last hurrahs and Kapler just might be the perfect guy for this group. I can see them cratering next year, though when Father Time catches up with them.

[andyb]

Glad you are confident about that last part. If the Phillies are intent on improving the defense, I don't this is where I would start.

I never said this would be a move to improve the defense. It would be a move to improve the team potentially since Bohm might never be a good player at 3B due to defense. One could be a 3-4 WAR offensive player but then if you consistently give back 1+ WAR on defense you are not a good player any more. The Maikel Franco argument. Bohm would clearly need to hit better anywhere he plays, but if he goes back to being an 800 OPS guy with a pretty good OBP (.290/.350/.450) then that would play in LF if his defense were not a minus.

Then one needs to get a 3B of course. But maybe Maton lets you put Segura at 3B in the short term assuming Didi gets healthy. Bohm in LF, Maton at 2B, and Segura at 3B might be a better defensive lineup this year than we are putting out currently.

When Bohm was drafted I got criticized here for saying he did not profile well defensively. Remember the whole Bohm vs Madrigal argument? Most focused on Madrigal's complete lack of power (note his defensive stats are only so-so this year meaning the jury is still out on which was a better pick), but the theory was always that Madrigal might be a good player with a 700-750 OPS if he was decent defensively and a good baserunner. While Bohm needed to be a really good hitter to have the same value.

We all overreact to short term events all the time. Bohm is still probably going to be a good hitter. It is also possible that he improves his mechanics defensively to the point he is playable there. It is also possible he is a large, somewhat awkward athlete that is just not built for the quick hand transfers required to be a good infielder.

[zambonir]

I don't think the Giants were really trying to win this year per se, they are running out the clock on that group and are about to have money to spend (Posey and Cueto and Belt are all gone after this year so father time won't be catching up to them on the Giants' watch. Longoria has one more year).

I suspect they might also gladly dip back for a year if they had to, but unlike the Phillies they probably don't have to, the cupboard isn't bare and they have a front office you can trust to add talent any which way.

Including signing marginal guys who provide value. Can Dombrowski find a Werth (as Gillick did) or Yastrzemski? Heck just last year Kevin Gausmann was no more valuable than Chase Anderson (he was DFA'ed/in the bullpen in 2019 and only got $9 million last year).

As for Bohm I just hope A) that he actually does get it together and B) that he's actually good enough offensively to be a 1B or LF. The second thing is not guaranteed either.

[Taudawg]

I never said this would be a move to improve the defense.

and just for the record, I never said you did. I said if the Phillies are intent on improving the defense... and I believe defense should be a priority.

I agree Bohm is likely going to be just fine on offense.

[zambonir]

Man, this thread is depressing!

(Inasmuch as we are already talking both deadline deals and the 2022 roster.)

I just hope that if we do end up being sellers, that

A) Dombrowski is able to make at least one creative deal that either subtracts 2022 money or adds 2022 talent

and/or

B) Haseley, Kingery, Moniak and even Maton are able to do something with the August and September playing time.