2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[bkox]

Joe Girardi was asked about the decision to go with Jankowski over Moniak. He cited Jankowski’s ability to play center field and how he’s swinging the bat. Moniak is 3-for-25 in Triple-A this season.

“We envision Mickey more as a corner outfielder than a center fielder.”

— Destiny Lugardo ( @destiny_lugardo ) May 30, 2021

Why is Moniak now a corner OFer??

[bkeich]

I envision Mickey more as working in the corner store than playing a corner OF in the majors.

The combination of above average speed, poor base running, poor fielding, below average hit tool and virtual no power does not make me think of offensive-centric positions like LF or RF.

If he can’t play well above average CF he has no future in baseball. At least he won’t be a #1 pick that never made the majors, he will just be one that never SHOULD have made the majors.

[baseballoldie]

Disagree with you. I think Moniak will figure it out and add value to the Phillies. He may not be what you want out of a #1 pick but I expect he will be in the game for a long time.

[bkeich]

I hope you are right Oldie, but I don’t see much to be hopeful about. He had some success at Reading 2 years ago (a field that greatly inflated offense), but other than that has done virtually nothing positive. He was laughably overmatched this year, implying he is not anywhere near close to ML. Now he is failing at AAA (too early).

Sadly, if he can’t play CF he has not shownanywhwre near the offense needed to be able to even be below average at a corner OF position.

[zambonir]

I don't know why Joe even said that when the party line has been that he needs both more minor league seasoning and more playing time. Both of which are also true. But as far as I recall his decline as a prospect has been as much about the fact that he hasn't proven to be an above average CF defender as it is about his bat (which right, isn't good enough for the corners either). And the only reason he's seen the majors to this point was a thin 40. This time they had room to add some veteran depth.

I hope he is good enough to win a bench spot next year or maybe be part of the next rebuild, but he isn't playing CF or LF for a team that still wants to contend in 2022.

[David_Criss]

Jankowski is the best defensive outfielder of anyone on the squad. Moniak playing everyday in AAA is what is best for everyone at this point. When Harper comes back it will be interesting to see who is removed from the active Jankowski or Joyce? They will need a 40-man spot, too for Haseley in a couple weeks. Hale and Anderson or Kingery could be removed, too.

Wonder what the Yanks would give for McCutchen?

[Sabin]

All these things are true, but also not true. Girardi has added little value, arguably negative value, but managers rarely matter more than the talent of the roster. And this is the same club Klentak built, and the same .500 team in need of a few breaks that nearly everyone thought it was before this season. The entire premise of the franchise is that the talent was already there, and just needed a better manager and a better bullpen. That premise was wrong. Other than Bohm, the injuries and declining performances are to be expected when your entire core is free agents. The bullpen actually is more than a few wins better than last year but the hitting and defense is worse, so it's wash.

But, Dombrowski's job is ultimately not to make the team watchable or live up to some objective standard of good baseball, but to compete for the NL East title, and this team is no worse than any of the others in that regard. And the things we are seeing this year are happening to nearly every team.

Until then I'd say this team is overachieving, given all the problems outlined in your post. They should be sinking into last place, and they're still treading at .500, though the Mets are defying all their own problems and opening up a little space. Yesterday was a bummer loss, but it was to a significantly better team. We'll see how they do with the Reds and the next homestand; if things go wrong they could be heading for the white flag by the end of the West Coast road trip. If not, and they don't make some big trades/$ expenditures, nothing will change and there's not really even a wild card available.

I definitely agree with some of your points, though others seem the product of over-rationalization. Most notable, IMHO, is the claim that the Phillies are as close as anyone to competing for the pennant. While their current spot in the standings would suggest this to be true, the Mets (whom I agree seem to be outperforming themselves) continue to hold onto a positive win % and widen their lead, and the Braves (whose extended snooze to the start of the season I'd say is beginning to raise a flag - not to mention the impact of Ozuna's situation now) still seem not fully awake.

Moreover, on paper the Phillies appear the least equipped to turn things around in-season. Like you noted, the FO has layered free agents around a rather non-existent core of younger talent. This leaves the club stretched relatively thin - aging vets less likely to reverse current production declines, a payroll $5m under the CBT, and a farm currently bereft of pieces to either replace the under-performers or garner significant upgrades via trade. By way of resource comparison within the division, only the Mets have a higher payroll, and only the Nationals a lower-graded farm system.

Recent performance isn't favoring them either. Since the gut-punch loss to the Braves in 12 on May 8, the Phillies are 7-12 (.368); the Braves 8-9 (.471); and the Mets 10-7 (.588). Naturally, these trends will see change over the next few months, but, while acknowledging the Realmuto and Harper injuries have contributed to the club's recent downturn, I'd argue both the Mets and Braves better positioned to supplement the performance of theirs this year.

[LoneStarPhan]

It is certainly true that all five teams in the NL East have shown weaknesses so there may still be hope.

Speaking of veteran presence, Harper, Didi, Cutch, JT, Segura, and even Hoskins should be a solid veteran presence for the regular lineup. If several of Haseley, Moniak, Bohm, Kingery, and Quinn would have been productive this season, it might have made a difference.

Injuries have hurt but every team has injuries. Still many games to play so I still have hopes they can catch the Mets and hold off the Braves and Marlins. If they are going to this they have to score more runs, cut back the far too many bonehead plays in the field, and get consistent innings from the bullpen.

So for now, lets win a series from the Reds.

I just read the following from Zolecki tonight:

The Phillies have had J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura, Alec Bohm, Didi Gregorius, Andrew McCutchen, Odúbel Herrera and Bryce Harper in the lineup together only twice this season, and not once since May 9.

[andyb]

That is kind of a silly statement about having all 8 starters in the lineup only twice. I suspect that is pretty common.

What is depressing is that the Phillies, while they have had significant injuries, have not really had it much worse than anyone else. A big part of the slow start has been some underperformance by significant players: Gregorius even when healthy. Bohm has been terrible. Knapp has regressed to the bad Knapp. CF collectively has been worse than expected. Cutch has been mediocre. Defense has regressed back to the Kapler years of being the worst in the league.

Pitching has been relatively healthy and the 4th and 5th starter issues are really less significant than the injuries of our competition. There is no giant fix to this unfortunately. We are still good enough to compete for a wild card if Bryce gets healthy. But not good enough to win much unfortunately. Too good for a full rebuild, but not good enough in the minors to trade for missing pieces.

I think the strategy is to muddle through the next couple of years and hope the minor league system rebounds. That is a bit of a longshot though. Unfortunately without a good minor league system there is really not any good strategy out there. I think the "muddle" strategy really needs to be coupled with not trading significant minor league prospects. So we probably take our odds from a 50% chance of a wild card down to 25%. That is really the price of holding onto pieces like Stott.

[Lucky_Beagle]

I realize VV may get rocked in his next couple of starts, but how does it make you feel to think the people in charge thought 2 other pitchers were better than he was going to be this season in the rotation. What does this say about their evaluation. Can we say the same about Herrera? Did the GM and manager misread the performance expectations?

[bkox]

That is kind of a silly statement about having all 8 starters in the lineup only twice. I suspect that is pretty common.

I think the silly part was including Odubel since he didnt join the team until April 26th.

[bkox]

The Phillies cant blame injuries.

The Padres Fernanco Tatis Jr has missed as many games as Harper or Realmuto and they are in first place in a tougher division than the NL east.

The Dodgers have been without Bellinger most of the year.. and lost Dustin May to TJ surgery.

The Mets have lost darn near everyone including the best pitcher in baseball to a IL stint AND their 300M shortstop has an OPS under .600 and they have the biggest division lead in MLB.

The AL Central leading Chisox lost Luis Robert

Almost all the good teams have lost a big piece of their team for a decent length of time and they are still good. The difference is, the good teams have decent pieces to replace them with. Obviously not as good as the players lost, but better than Moniak and Jankowski and Knapp. The lack of depth is on the front office. And the terrible roster management by Giraldi and the front office in not putting Harper and Realmuto on the IL and wasting bench spots or a full week of Harper production when he tried to play through it.

[zambonir]

Moreover, on paper the Phillies appear the least equipped to turn things around in-season. Like you noted, the FO has layered free agents around a rather non-existent core of younger talent. This leaves the club stretched relatively thin - aging vets less likely to reverse current production declines, a payroll $5m under the CBT, and a farm currently bereft of pieces to either replace the under-performers or garner significant upgrades via trade. By way of resource comparison within the division, only the Mets have a higher payroll, and only the Nationals a lower-graded farm system.

Recent performance isn't favoring them either. Since the gut-punch loss to the Braves in 12 on May 8, the Phillies are 7-12 (.368); the Braves 8-9 (.471); and the Mets 10-7 (.588). Naturally, these trends will see change over the next few months, but, while acknowledging the Realmuto and Harper injuries have contributed to the club's recent downturn, I'd argue both the Mets and Braves better positioned to supplement the performance of theirs this year.

I think the strategy is to muddle through the next couple of years and hope the minor league system rebounds. That is a bit of a longshot though. Unfortunately without a good minor league system there is really not any good strategy out there. I think the "muddle" strategy really needs to be coupled with not trading significant minor league prospects. So we probably take our odds from a 50% chance of a wild card down to 25%. That is really the price of holding onto pieces like Stott.

Yeah, I just don't find "muddle" to be much better than a full rebuild/tank, or an 81-win team to be that much better than a 73-win team. Agree the Braves and Mets remain better-positioned, but this year is still an opportunity, if they are willing to throw their cards on the table and also exceed the CBT. And it can be done in a way that gets you longer-term pieces too (guys who are willing to re-sign or already controllable). That might cost you Stott,

They still have the talent and the $ to try and win in 2022 and 2023 - emphasis on try - but if they intend to hand out more FA contracts in those years - Bryant and a SS next year, say - that win-now mentality still needs to be accompanied by the spending and trades. Maybe Dombrowski can do that one-year 2013 Red Sox thing (which wasn't even him) but that requires all the things to go right with veterans and short-term free agents and marginal upgrades, exactly the thing the Phillies haven't been able to do. Otherwise, the best and only way to get started on fixing the system is the same as it was in 2013 and 2014, and they shouldn't wait two years to do it this time.

The question this year is, do you think a wild card or NL East berth can actually get you past one of the obvious top teams (i.e. LA and SD). But there's no real way to answer that, on paper it's "no" but in practice we've seen it happen.

[flyers19rw]

Here's the thing with and the player development and the Phillies. Its inconsistent. When a team takes a guy in the early half of the first round who has three years of NCAA ball under their belt, they should be set for AA ball sometime during their draft year and two seasons later into the game. Either that or they drafted the wrong guy. Complicating the player development, when the Phillies get a guy that can move along, they have the tendency to jump them from AA ball to the show which gets them in over their head too quickly-Hasely, Bohm. It certainly looks as if both of these players could have used some patience and a good portion of a season at LV.
Then there's the current case with Bryson Stott. A middle (14th) first round DC with three seasons of NCAA ball under his belt. Will be 24 years old in four months. He's messing around in high A ball hitting .288. Granted last season was a bust because of Covid but he should be further along than in A+ ball right now. At the rate that he's moving along, he'll be in Philly in '23 and getting close to 26 years of age. A little slow there? I'm not saying that he should be here starting at SS but in IMO Stott should have been in Reading to start the season and ready to move to LV in July; Philly in September getting ready for a call up and looking to be in the majors next season. If not, he hasn't shown the skills to be taken as high as he was.
Something is drastically wrong here. Several times this season, Bohm has been seen on the bench on the verge of tears because of a bad play that he has made. Haseley has taken a walkabout this season for one reason or another. The club can't afford to have these types of things occurring. Development means a lot of things on the field and off. It doesn't look as if the Phillies are paying the right attention to both of these areas with their players.

[Taudawg]

They still have the talent and the $ to try and win in 2022 and 2023

I agree with this.

I don't believe in full rebuilds though - I believe them unnecessary. Good organizations don't need full rebuilds. When is the last time the Cardinals finished last? They haven't been under .500 since 2007. The problem is the Phillies have not been good as an organization. They don't appear to have had a solid strategy, been able to execute on whatever strategy they have, they draft poorly, etc.. I'm hopeful Dombrowski/Fuld can be the difference. Should they bail on contending in 2021, they have lots of flippable talent and money coming off the books to revamp and look good heading into 2022. Any team that can start with Wheeler, Nola, Eflin, Harper and Realmuto has the bones to contend next year.

[zambonir]

Well, yeah: the Phillies have never been a good organization! Luck and drafting high/often, whether intentional or not, is all they've had, especially in recent years, even if the Pope and Arbuckle also deserve credit.

Also, the Phillies used to fail because they were both cheap and bad at development; now they fail because they are profligate and bad at development. The Cardinals are a perfect storm of good baseball people and a small-market mentality, while still enjoying myriad large-market benefits. Teams like the A's and Rays make the low-payroll mentality work for them, though they'll likely also never win a championship (close as the Rays have come)

The problem is they really don't have much in the way of flippable talent, though it's not nothing. Perhaps they can find the next Pivetta or Arano in the lottery tickets they can get for Cutch or Bradley. Didi and Segura would still be hard to trade. Neris and Vince would have some value. It would be a quantity over quality haul. The off-season is where it would get more interesting, as they try to trade one of Didi or Segura, and/or see if there's a creative deal for Kingery. And do you even trade Herrera at the deadline? I don't think you do, though still a risk he regresses again next year, and his open-market value may still be lower than his option given the baggage.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

I realize VV may get rocked in his next couple of starts,

I think you jinxed him.

[bkox]

Phillies announce that MRI confirmed Roman Quinn suffered rupture to Achilles tendon. He will have surgery this week. Recovery time is 9-12 months.

— Jim Salisbury ( @JSalisburyNBCS ) May 31, 2021

[zambonir]

Wow. So he's looking at a minor league deal no matter what.

[andyb]

Probably ends his Phillies career unless he wants to stay in the organization on a minimum deal. He would not get much in arbitration next season as a first time eligible, but there is also little reason for him to remain on the 40 next offseason. If I were him I actually might question how this organization has been able to get him healthy.