2021 Draft News & Speculation

[bkox]

I just looked at the entire Phillies draft history... We have never drafted an OFer that became a star with us.

Luzinski was drafted as a 1B in 68 and didnt become an OF until 72 after he was already in the majors.

Lonnie Smith is the best OF we ever drafted with 38 career WAR but only played 202 games in a Phils uni.

Larry Hisle had 25 career WAR but was negative 2 when he left the Phils.

[zambonir]

Of course it's the recent history that I'm sure sticks out the most for Atown: Hewitt (a SS), Collier, Green, Randolph (also a SS) and now the two current guys. And then there's also the Jeff Jackson and Reggie Taylor PTSD.

But it's hard for me to believe it's an organizational inability to scout or develop OFs, especially across so many eras. More likely they just don't scout or develop that well in general, and the failed OFs stand out. And somehow the same organization was able to brilliantly scout and nurture three players from other systems in Abreu, Werth and Vic.

Byrd, Bourn and Burrell are no small thing either.

[bkox]

Maybe they should stick to catchers. From 1973 when Bob Boone took over full time as catcher through 2017, the majority of Phillies games were caught by a home grown Phillies catcher in all but 5 out of 45 seasons. Only Bo Diaz in 82-83, Lance Parrish in 87-88 and Benito Santiago in 96 werent homegrown. All the rest were drafted (Boone, Russell, Dutch, Lieby, Estrada, Rupp) or signed internationally (Virgil and Chooch)

[allentown]

Ranked in terms of career WAR
Marlon Byrd - 25 WAR
Micheal Bourn - 22 WAR

Okay, I must concede that major league coaching may be part of the issue. Marlon Byrd has all of a 1.1 WAR for the Phillies. He put up a +3.4 WAR in his first full season in Philly, then -2.1 the next season in Philly, then gone just a little into the next season. Traded straight-up for the immortal Endy Chavez, who put up a -0.4 WAR in that one partial Philly season and allowed to leave as FA.

Michael Bourn was excoriated by Phillies minor league staff for taking walks instead of collecting HRs and RBIs. He had +0.7 WAR for Phillies. He did bear fruit as key part of Brad Lidge trade, without which we don't sniff the 2008 WS

Jason Michaels did put up +5 of his career +5.6 WAR in Philly, making him the leading direct WAR contributor to Phillies, apart from Burrell. Bourn with the greatest overall impact.

[zambonir]

They didn't even stick with Byrd long enough to coach him up. Just pulled the chute, straight-up panicked in 2005 and then didn't even get Chavez's good years. And then of course wound up bringing Byrd back years and years later.

I'm sure Bourn would have been okay too, but that was a good trade for everyone.

So are we doing the same thing with Haseley, Kingery, even Moniak now? Not patient enough given the pressure to win now, and/or failing at development where someone else might succeed?

To be fair, they don't all leave and succeed.

[fish]

So are we doing the same thing with Haseley, Kingery, even Moniak now? Not patient enough given the pressure to win now, and/or failing at development where someone else might succeed?

I don't think it's patience that's needed. It's figuring out what seems to be a someone in the system who tells a hitter going well "no, you're doing it wrong" and messing up anyone who ever had a clue. Maybe there is an Annie Savoy in Clearwater giving bad hitting tips.

[Philsmania]

They didn't even stick with Byrd long enough to coach him up. Just pulled the chute, straight-up panicked in 2005 and then didn't even get Chavez's good years. And then of course wound up bringing Byrd back years and years later.

I'm sure Bourn would have been okay too, but that was a good trade for everyone.

So are we doing the same thing with Haseley, Kingery, even Moniak now? Not patient enough given the pressure to win now, and/or failing at development where someone else might succeed?

To be fair, they don't all leave and succeed.

Byrd didn't get good until his fifth ML season, his third organization and after 1,589 ML at-bats. That would have been asking for a lot of patience for the Phillies to stick with him for that long. He's one of those classic "took a long time to figure things out" guys. See also, Jose Bautista, Chris Davis, Brandon Moss, Josh Hamilton. All of them have multiple organizations in common. Heck, Bautista was with his fifth organization and in his seventh ML season. The Inquirer's Murphy once pointed to those guys as a argument to keep the faith Domonic Brown. We had a similar discussion about pitchers in another thread in the context of Nick Pivetta.

[bkox]

Number 4 overall from 2016, Riley Pint, just retired without ever making the bigs. How many people here wanted him instead of Moniak?

[BaseballCat]

Saw him a couple times in minors at Asheville. He was a really nice guy, but boy did he have some control issues at times. Wish him the best.

[Squire]

I don't think many people here or even the Phillies were in on Riley Pint. I just remember it being a decision between Mickey Moniak, Blake Rutherford, A.J. Puk and Kyle Lewis. It was definitely and awful draft all around but some teams got something. Unlike Pint, the book is not closed on Moniak yet but its still not promising.

[zambonir]

I mean, I also remember talk of Senzel, certainly Groome, maybe Ray. I don't remember any talk of Ian Anderson, the best of the top picks so far. Nor Gavin Lux.

[bkox]

2nd rnd of that draft definitely has produced better results.. Bryan Reynolds, Bo Bichette and Pete Alonso. But 4th rounder Shane Bieber has been the best (by WAR) thus far

[gmwannabe]

yes, and how many of those players did the phils draft?

[zambonir]

Every team misses a few every year, and TNSAAPP of course, but to miss that hard on 1-1, 2-1 and 3-1 is rough... especially when the 5th-rounder (Irvin) is the best current major leaguer of our picks for someone else, and we basically gave up on him for Matt Moore.

[allentown]

Yes, my memory says Senzel was the preferred choice of this forum. Puk also with a lot of interest.

[bigegypt0417]

Senzel has not been very good so far...negative WAR over 3 years.

[zambonir]

Yeah he had a strong first half of his rookie year but has struggled, been injured, and kind of turned into a Kingery-like player since then.

[Squire]

New Mock at FanGraphs:

Gave us HS Catcher Harry Ford. Montgomery went one pick before. Seems like the Phillies are good at giving minimal clues. In picking Ford the Phillies are passing on both Madden and Wicks:

1. Philadelphia Phillies
   Pick: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (GA)

EL: The dope has been pretty dry around Philly, with just a couple sources pointing toward Montgomery, though that may just be due to proximity. If the month between now and the draft allows teams to talk themselves out of taking a high school pitcher early, then maybe we have a Mick Abel repeat here with Jobe. Ford is just good value here.

KG: Ford has been rumored as high as fifth overall; the question is where will he play as a pro. He’s shown promise behind the plate, but some scouts feel he has the tools to play center field, which would take much less of a physical toll than catching.

[gmwannabe]

smoke screens. and they are being pretty coy. Definitely jobe, if he would get there, Painter is the one.
gm

[Squire]

Another Callis generated MLBPipeline mock draft gave us Benny Montgomery.

1. Phillies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS (Lewisberry, Pa.)
   If the Phillies pass on Montgomery, almost every team behind them would consider him strongly. They might be the first team that would take Cusick, and they've also been associated with Madden and the second-tier college bats. There's talk that Madden could slip to the late teens, but there seems to be too much interest in him for that to happen.

Cowser, Wicks, Ford, Solomento all were also available