2020 Philadelphia Phillies Season News/Notes/Discussion

[zambonir]

Haha well we did have a pitcher to swap out, as it turns out.

#Phillies place Heath Hembree on 10-day IL with a strained right elbow. OF Mickey Moniak and RHP Ramon Rosso recalled. Adonis Medina was optioned after yesterday's game.

— Todd Zolecki ( @ToddZolecki ) September 21, 2020

[andyb]

If they don't need him tonight I assume Rosso is the most likely starter for a bullpen game tomorrow in the second game of the DH. Not much left to recall as the 29th man (Suarez or Cleavinger seem most likely).

A giant bullpen is less of a need if we get through the Nats series. Moniak may be earning himself a playoff roster spot for the first series. Once we get into the playoffs with this injured everyday roster we might go with a 7-man bench. Maybe even 8 if JT is day to day. With a 7-man bench we would still have 13 total pitchers. More pinch runners is probably more useful than more bullpen pitchers.

[andyb]

Rafael Marchan's path is a bit unique:

Rafael Marchan Powers Up

I think the zero home runs is a bit of a fluke. When he was 17 and 18 he was playing in complex stadiums that tend to have deep fences. At 19 and 20 he was at Williamsport and Lakewood, two of the most pitcher-friendly and HR-unfriendly stadiums in the minors and his time at Clearwater (a more neutral park) was very limited.

I think he would have hit 5-10 home runs in 2020 in a normal year with the high end from an early promotion to Reading. He is not like some of the guys Fangraphs compared him to with almost no power. He still profiles as a contact hitter of course. It was just an anomaly that he made it through 4 seasons without a home run.

[Austinfan]

Yeah, his HR wasn't a fence scraping fluke, it was a legitimate HR.
"It was no cheapie, either; a 364-foot, 99.6 mph blast to right off of an A.J. Cole cutter."

He has a barrel! His hard-hit rate is 50%. The sample size is “go away, this isn’t a real sample,” but we’re not talking about Billy Hamilton here; Marchan’s maximum exit velocity, in six chances, is 99.6 mph, nearly equal to Hamilton’s maximum in 257 batted balls the past two years.

The crazy thing is if they don't resign JT he may share duties with Knapp next year until he takes over in a couple seasons. Given Cutch, Hopkins, Harper and Bohm at the top of the order, they could carry him in the 9th spot.

[andyb]

If JT does not resign I think there is a 99% chance we go out and get a veteran catcher. It might not be an expensive one, but they will not go into the season with just Knapp and Marchan. Ideally they would give Knapp a season to win the job and if he does not, you hope the veteran is credible and give Marchan time to get 300-400 minor league plate appearances.

Marchan could be a sub-600 OPS guy in a larger sample because he just is not ready.

[David_Criss]

Marchan has only played up to high A prior to this year. He, Howard, Medina, Rosso, Romero, Brogdon, Llovera should be given a shot next year to make the parent club. But in reality should be honing their craft at Reading or LeHigh Valley and only a phone call away should an injury occur.

[zambonir]

Given Cutch, Hopkins, Harper and Bohm at the top of the order, they could carry him in the 9th spot.

They'll get a catcher. And they'll also need a bat if they don't sign JT, with or without Didi.

The above is an extremely rosy outlook: Cutch is about to have his career-worst season, will be a year older and isn't a defensive plus anymore. Even when he signed the contract we figured he might be a platoon player and lower-order hitter by Year 3 (though such thinking was also based on actually have young players pushing harder to get into the OF). He has a .316 OBP. I'd be looking to trade him (or Segura) for cap room to sign JT and Didi, not using him as a reason to not do those things.

And Hoskins (Hopkins?) still has to do it for a full season. So does Bohm for that matter.

[andyb]

Bohm is really the only younger player that you can see with a regular role. I guess I could see Knapp putting up what was his original profile. Slightly better than average bat and below average defense (but calls a good game!). That could be a serviceable catcher. Haseley and Quinn competing in CF (not necessarily sharing) is also most likely.

I think Cutch is what he is. Probably not tradeable without eating the contract so the team probably upgrades the Bruce spot but does not do anything major. And Segura having a decent season coupled with Kingery not means I think you have to pencil Kingery into a utility role at best.

If they did not resign JT I think they use the savings on pitching. Sign a $3 million catcher (Zunino?). Get 2 starters for $30 million and some bullpen pieces. If you can trade Cutch or Segura for a similar contract that fits what you want to do (like a 3rd starter) then maybe you do that, but the unfortunate scenario is we can't really trade for much unless we deal from our small group of prospects or we blow it up (trading our guys with actual trade value).

[Philsmania]

We really could have used keeping Grullon around with the Realmuto situation.

[andyb]

The "A" team on the field in game 1, or most of it. JT is catching and Bryce is out in RF with Cutch at DH.

[David_Criss]

I think Cutch is what he is. Probably not tradeable without eating the contract so the team probably upgrades the Bruce spot but does not do anything major.

Pittsburgh paid the Giants $2.5 million of his $14,750,000 contract when they traded him after only being one year removed from playing in five consecutive all star games and was healthy. Now he will be 34, I think and will be owed $23 million ($20 salary and $3 buyout in 22) Perhaps the Pirates might take him so he can finish his career there, but whomever he is traded to, will want most of that contract paid.

Looking at Cutch and the Howard contract, it scares me to think the Phillies might be paying out $25 mil per for the next 5 to 7 years of a 30-year-old Realmuto. At least next years' bullpens most expensive piece will be a $7million Hector Neris.

[zambonir]

I'm not sure it would have made a functional difference especially since Marchan has been fine. We're just lucky Knapp has been so solid.

Agreed it will be hard to trade Cutch, but whether we do or not, he's not an untouchable top-of-the-order piece. Basically we're gonna have four fourth OFs between LF and CF - unless you don't sign JT in which case that's probably where you spend for offense.

I doubt Neris will be the most expensive bullpen piece by the time the off-season is over. And who knows if he'll even get the $7 million. It seems silly to squeeze him over $1 million in arbitration but if they were willing to do it to JT and Nola I'm sure they're willing to do it to him.

[LoneStarPhan]

I really hoped the Phillies would have signed JT after last season, but frankly, if the price is what has been mentioned, then the Phillies might be better off if they don't sign him.

Regarding McCutchen, if they are going to pay the bulk of his contract, I'd keep him, even as a bench piece and part time starter.

It is hard to believe that the season ends this coming weekend. The Phillies have much work to do in preparation for spring training 2021.

[zambonir]

They were very clear that they did not want to sign him while the extension would count against the 2020 luxury tax. So you can just add that to the list of reasons to be annoyed they didn't pay or properly manage the luxury tax.

But I suspect he also wasn't signable. He wanted a big # in arbitration and he would have wanted the Phillies to meet his open-market goal to take him off that market. Maybe there was a small window to talk in late March had the season started normally, but more likely it was already a longshot once those arbitration figures were exchanged - and the only way to avoid arbitration would have been to include 2020 in the extension.

If you move Cutch you want someone to either pick up half his salary or it's like the Santana/Segura deal where you make the money match (presumably for pitching). But no, it won't be easy. Sign JT and you just find another Bruce or Corey Dickerson type, especially if you also sign Didi. But if you don't sign JT, LF is about the only place you can upgrade the offense.

[zambonir]

Still a lot of baseball left. We might have a better shot at catching the Marlins (two against Atlanta, three against the Yankees) than the Brewers or Reds (though we don't have the tiebreaker with Miami obviously, whereas I believe we still will with any NL Central team, though that may have changed given we've lost five straigh division games).

I also kind of doubt the Giants will stay ahead of us (though if you want this season to end badly, that's the most embarassing possible scenario for Middleton).

Chart from @boopstats on Twitter.

[andyb]

Matt Gelb linked this chart on bullpen velocity and the percentage of pitches at 94 mph or greater:

Statcast Search

The Phillies rank 28th out of 30. The Dodgers and Padres rank 1 and 2. We just have not been able to develop any hard throwing relievers lately. While we can point to Seranthony being injured, the reality is that good bullpens tend to have 3 or 4 guys that throw in the upper 90s. Velocity is not everything, but it sure points to Brogdon and Romero being the potential keepers among the young arms in the current bullpen and in the sheer necessity of finding more pitchers that throw harder than them (they are mid-90s, we need some upper 90s).

[flyers19rw]

Puzzling lack of direction from owner Arte Moreno makes Angels GM role a...

One could just about cross out a few names here from and about the Angels' organization and replace them with names from the Phillies. If Middleton-Bucks want to avoid going down the road that the Angels have, it would be best to at least let Klentak go and better yet, MacPhail along with him.
Someone derided the Phillies for beginning to look like the NL version of the Yankees when they hired both their scouting director and manager out of the NYY system. Actually to have the Yankees' stability and direction would be a plus. Hiring a person who came from that organization would give the Phillies someone who could be a fit with what is already here and create a unity of purpose for the future of the club.

[Austinfan]

The ideal RP has a 95+ FB and one plus secondary pitch (slider, changeup).

Klentak did focus on college arms the last couple drafts, these are the "low cost" RP guys.
2019:
Miller 4th rd
Mayer 5th rd
Schultz 6th rd
Schulze 7th rd
2020:
Ragsdale 4th rd, then signed
Antle, Hughes, Sullivan, Woodward

The advantage of college SPs who may be marginal 5th guys is they can rise rapidly if they gain velo when they move into a RP role.

2018 they didn't draft many RP arms
2017, Brogdon 10th rd senior (so much for "throwaway picks"), Warren 14th, Dohy 16th, Jones 18th
2016, Romero 4th,

[andyb]

The point is that this strategy of drafting college arms for relief is not working. Every college pitcher drafted after the 7th or 8th round is essentially a bullpen arm. In 2018 they drafted plenty of them. They just have not identified many good ones. In 2016 which you mention, Romero was seen as a starter ideally and just about every late round college arm has by now failed (Dyer, Quinn, Garcia, Kelzer, Hibbs, Hennigan, Hallead, Betancourt).

The team's bad bullpen is largely because of bad drafting and international development. We have had plenty of picks over the years. They just have mostly failed and none of them seems more than a depth reliever (even Brogdon and Romero) at this point.

The bad bullpen is largely on Klentak.

[el-pietro]

Playoff odds are now down to 33%. Collapsed from over 90% on September 12th, was as high as 87% on September 19th. Brewers, Reds and Giants all with better odds than the Phillies.