2020 Philadelphia Phillies Season News/Notes/Discussion

[andyb]

EDLS is pitching at LHV today, so he is not getting the callup. BTW apparently Marchan hit a HR Tuesday in the alternate site games. His first ever pro home run technically.

[andyb]

The catcher probably matters a small bit, but I am also guessing the pitch selection is largely on the new pitcher telling the catcher what they like to throw and the pitching coaches confirming the plan.

It is not Realmuto's fault if nothing Workman is throwing is even close to the strike zone.

[zambonir]

It was pretty interesting that Joe took JT aside after the game. I don't doubt there's a small adjustment there, but in this day and age how you attack each batter is something that everyone should be on the same page with, based on scouting, analytics, the pitching coach, the catcher and the pitcher. And the fielders get positioned accordingly per AB or even pitch too.

Of course sometimes the pitcher just misses, that seemed to be the case with the game-winning run.

They were so busy fixing Hector's splitter it doesn't seem like anyone has tried to fix Workman yet.

[andyb]

Workman was just not finishing his curveball correctly yesterday. Probably something about his shoulder not rotating fully through each pitch, which was why just about every pitch was missing in the same spot (up and in to a RH batter).

That is something a pitching coach has to intercede on. You can't expect JT to not call curveballs with Workman pitching. It might be a recipe to throw more strikes, but a Workman not throwing curves is also a recipe to get hit hard.

[andyb]

Moving the injury talk back to the main thread:

Spencer Howard, J.T. Realmuto and the Phillies' injury quagmire

Howard with shoulder stiffness. This is what cost him a couple of months last year. With him there has always been a durability issue. A bit disturbing in that it was bothering him for a few days before the start.

Also, Wheeler will not start Monday. Eflin starts today but we might do a bullpen game in the second game to move Velasquez to Monday into Wheeler's spot. Yes we are now in a world where we want Vince Velasquez in the 9-inning game rather than the 7-inning game. And they could bring up Rosso or Irvin to start game 2 today (which might be against Sixto).

Realmuto being discussed as day to day. No catchers being recalled or IL moves just yet.

[Austinfan]

Howard will need years to build up arm strength, you could see him lose command and velocity in the 4th.
He was only a starter for I think one college season and has never started 30 games
2017: 21 starts, 116 IP
2018: 23 starts, 112 IP
2019: 15 starts, 71 IP

He's got an easy delivery, doesn't overthrow, but probably needs a couple years to build up arm strength and a good off season training regime. With that frame, sustained velocity shouldn't be a problem once he builds up strength.

[andyb]

Ever since Howard started throwing harder he has not been able to sustain it. This is not a starter building a stamina over time. This is more whether a pitcher's body can handle throwing lots of high velocity pitches. It is the exact same question used to dismiss Sixto Sanchez as a prospect. Since Howard has never shown a lot of durability, we should not assume his body is at all capable of it.

He really has not been that good this season even when seemingly healthy. His stuff has not been topping out in the high 90s. He has more been 93-95 even in his best starts. He had better stuff when he was touching 98, even if his change was much less developed at that time. He has better learned the secondary pitches of a starter while his overall velocity has dropped a bit.

[Philsmania]

Would the Marlins have made the Realmuto trade if it was Howard instead of Sanchez? If so, I can't help but fear that we bet on the wrong horse in Howard. At the time of the trade, all the talk was that Howard surpassed Sanchez as a prospect. Now, it looks like Sanchez is an emerging ace while Howard will be a 4-5 starter if not end up in the bullpen.

[andyb]

Now, it looks like Sanchez is an emerging ace while Howard will be a 4-5 starter if not end up in the bullpen.

I would not go nearly that far. I always rated Sanchez slightly higher as a prospect but not dramatically higher. And last year Howard did show a changeup that he did not have before that would have elevated him into a number 2 starter type if he were durable. And I am the first to also admit that Sanchez himself has always had durability issues (not stuff issues) that could push him to the bullpen. He looks like he too has mastered a better changeup though.

We should not overrate recent news which is negative. Both are good prospects. Both have equally serious injury history and durability issues. When the trade was made Sanchez was probably valued higher, but only by a little bit (remember before last year Howard was only in Low A a year behind most of his college draft class).

I'd rather have both of course, as volume in top pitching prospects is important.

[zambonir]

No way to know for a few years. But Sanchez was still rated higher than Howard at the time, and was more advanced. It was just that having both made the trade possible. I don't think the Marlins would have settled for less, they'd already scouted Sanchez for more than a year previously when the Phillies considered trading for Stanton and Yelich.

[flyers19rw]

Sanchez has had his physical issues as well. A big question with him, that will only be answered in time, is whether he can pitch deeper into games than five innings and still hold up? Additionally he now has put a lot of pounds onto a short physique. Conditioning could be an issue.

[zambonir]

The good news in that story is that Wheeler may start as soon as Wednesday.

I don't see how they can play another game tomorrow without both Hoskins and Realmuto though. Or even without one of them, though you also don't want to make them unavailable for 10 days if they only have to be out for five.

As I posted in the game thread Marchan was called up for now.

[andyb]

If Hoskins can't go tomorrow the one guy of the injured that would be nice to have back is Bruce. He can play 1B and move Gosselin back to a role he is more comfortable with. Kingery is less important unless he decided to play like last year. Not that I really think Torreyes should ever get starts, but at least he can catch the ball.

No good answers obviously. It is not like we have any additional hitters on the 40 and it is not like any of the other hitters at LHV would really make a difference like Mikie Mahtook who might be the best of them. While one could criticize a little the various IL moves that gave us no hitters on the 40, it is not like we should be winning games with Hoskins and Realmuto in the lineup (and others like Bruce and Quinn). It is a pretty bad lineup that just is not going to win without a good start (i.e. Nola).

[zambonir]

In a perfect world and normal season Moniak and even Gamboa would have had normal seasons in AAA and at least been available for emergency duty or September call-ups, though neither could have really shouldered any kind of role.

Of course the Walker/Torreyes move made sense when they needed CF/middle IF depth but now Walker would be better (if Hoskins or JT are out for long). And we have to assume a Kingery who's actually healed up and two months past COVID can play better - a higher floor, at least, if not the ceiling we want to see out of a future starter.

To me Quinn was the big absence today, at least you could have had him CF and Haseley in LF for Game 1, and him instead of Torreyes in CF for Game 2. Playing Torreyes twice (along with Gosselin, Garlick and Knapp) obviously isn't going to give you much offense. And yet they could have won Game 1 just like it was a Nola start.

[el-pietro]

Fangraphs still likes our chances of making the playoffs better than the Marlins. I don't know if they are factoring in the injury list that is piling up.
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
They have us at 84.5% to make the playoffs with second division spot slightly more likely than wildcard.

The first Wild Card spot seems like a much better option than the second division spot as thing currently sit. If the season ended today the Marlins would face the Padres with the winner of that tie facing either the Dodgers or Giants. The Phillies would play the Braves and the winner of that series would face the Cubs or Cards.

I'm feeling extremely pessimistic after a weekend of mediocrity but maybe its not all bad... depending on the injury status of several key players.

[andyb]

The Phillies would play the Braves and the winner of that series would face the Cubs or Cards

The 7 seed seems better than the 5 seed that might have to go through the best 2 teams in the league (Padres then Dodgers). So the Realmuto and Hoskins injuries were "strategic".

[el-pietro]

As long as we can stay out of the 8 seed and face the Dodgers!

[Philsmania]

Ordinarily, you don't like to use injuries as an excuse but this is what happens when you don't have a farm system and the depth that comes with it. Injuries are all the more devastating.

One silver lining. Is it possible that this hip injury might depress Realmuto's price on the open market?

[andyb]

On the Marlins telecast yesterday they were talking about how Gosselin and Bohm had started out at 3B and 1B respectively and then switched before the game. It did not make any difference, but if Hoskins is out for any long period of time it would actually make sense to shift Bohm over there if Bruce is not back. The infield options would include Gosselin, Torreyes, and Kingery potentially. With one of them at 2B and 3B and Bohm having some experience at 1B, that would seem the best defensive lineup to me.

One other option we could see: Knapp at 1B and Marchan catching. Wonder if we might see that today.

[zambonir]

The problem is Phil Gosselin is Phil Gosselin again (.642 OPS in last 28 days, almost 100 points less than that in last 14). To have him at either corner with Torreyes also in the line-up is just rough. But so it is for now.

I think we still make the playoffs. Win today and go .500 the rest of the way and we're 30-30. 29 might still make the playoffs, but could be again the Dodgers. Definitely prefer that 7th seed - if things broke well you might not have to go all-out to win the Tampa series if there's no reward for being 5th. It's not even the Padres per se as the trip west, which we luckily don't even have to make for the NLDS.

Overall it basically means you want to go 5-2 or 4-3 against the Mets and Nats (Nats series is on the road, can't expect another sweep) and 2-5 or 3-4 against the AL East teams (but at least all four Jays games are in Philadelphia).