2020 Philadelphia Phillies Season News/Notes/Discussion

[andyb]

A good bullpen is a mix of ages, roles and salaries, not all one thing, but buying another $10 million reliever wasn't necessarily going to work out any better.

They could have traded for one too. I think they knew they had a bad bullpen. They just didn't prioritize it and hoped for the best. Sometimes you get lucky. More often not when you don't prioritize it though. This goes back to the deadline last year also where they again just acquired some mediocre veterans (mostly on waivers) and hoped some spaghetti would stick to the wall.

[zambonir]

Yeah they just weren't really all-in (and didn't have much to trade with) last deadline, once the bottom fell out and the injuries piled up. And now they don't want to spend the money.

I would have just tried to trade Pivetta for another Alvarez or Luis Garcia type. Hard to believe Nick Williams couldn't get you someone too (in the off-season), though probably not someone any better than what we claimed off waivers.

There have been times when Klentak has seemed to be proactive (JT, certainly, and Santana) but more often he seems reactive, or scrambling to compensate for miscalculations. Last season was supposed to be the year of the big offense and weak rotation, with a deep, strong, match-up minded, roleless bullpen keeping that weak rotation (besides Nola) from pitching after 5 innings. And now this year just feels like a reaction to last year, being too afraid to tie up any money in such an uncertain commodity as a relief pitcher, but also putting your faith in Girardi's rep for traditional bullpen management.

(I've come around on that though, I think he is doing a good job choosing and preserving his bullets. Most of the worst performances we've seen have been in low-leverage or low win probability situations. Of course that can't last forever.)

[andyb]

The only issue I have had with the bullpen management is the couple of times Girardi got Neris up (like last night). Seemed unnecessary at the time. We don't want to overuse Hector, but we have somehow maneuvered him into being used less than he should. Last night was a mistake if it prevents him from being used tonight (it shouldn't since he did not get in the game).

As for which bad reliever to put in, at least he is not overusing anybody.

[zambonir]

Agreed. Last night especially. The other time he did come in, and it was a save situation (for which he threw one pitch). Was still probably not necessary, but would we have wanted to see anyone else?

I also liked that he had someone up to relieve Hector when things got hairy the other night, Charlie never used to do that when his closer got in trouble.

The new rules and the weird season make it pretty heard to manage everything too. But that's something else Klentak should have considered - you need guys who can get people out from both sides more than ever.

[DurhamBull]

Good luck to Nick Williams. Wherever he lands, it has to be better than being 13th on the 12-man OF depth chart for the Phils. I hope he gets a shot elsewhere.

[zambonir]

One thing about following a team is we often really have no clue how our team compares to all the rest of baseball, and that's probably even more true this year.

To wit (and granted, the smallest of samples): offense is really bad in all of MLB.

So guess which team has the best OPS in all of MLB?

Also first in OBP, 4th in SLG.

8th in BA which is still upper-tier.

Also still really good with runners on, but not with runners in scoring position (17th OPS 24th BA).

[gmwannabe]

Mets??

[andyb]

On the offense is really bad front, I think AVG is the worst part of it. I am in a 12-team mixed fantasy league and only 3 of 12 teams have a batting average over .240 this year.

[Philsmania]

Only six out out of fifteen teams in the NL have a winning record and only fourteen teams in all of baseball have a .500 or better record. Basically, seven teams--the Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, Twins and Athletics--are beating up on everyone else who is, at best, only three games over .500.

[phillychuck]

Marlins?

[ER222]

Phillies

[phillychuck]

Sure!

[Austinfan]

Kingery seems to be a COVID victim, he's not .100 BA bad.
The ball seems to still be juiced, though it's also August weather with April arms.

If the starting pitching settles in, the team can hit, so they only need 3-4 RPs, the rest can engage in mop up duties. If someone like Brodgon or Jones could step in an become a reliable 7th inning guy they'll be alright.

[el-pietro]

Eno Sarris had this piece on the drop in offense.

Sarris: Where has all the offense gone?

He notes six factors -

• Pitchers are ahead of hitters in terms of prep
• Pitcher usage is more optimised (starters not going as deep, which for teams other than the Phillies is usually a good thing)
• The ball looks back to its 2017/18 level, so less HRs/FB
• The strikezone is bigger, possibly due to better pitch framing by catchers
• Talented players are missing due to opt outs and injury. I don't buy this one, there are plenty of pitchers missing too and he doesn't back it up with data.
• BABIP is at .275 after 25 years of stability whee it remained between .293 and .303
  This last piece he attributes to the increased shift, though the less lively ball leading to more warning track outs and pitchers being ahead of hitters are probably contributing to this as well. There was a discussion on Effectively Wild about BABIP being down recently and they mentioned that the lack of fans may be helping with this too.They were wondering if infielders were making better plays as they could see/hear the ball more clearly off the bat without fans. The compared it to improved free throw rates in basketball and converted free kicks in soccer in games without fans. They were able to back up this hypothesis with data as well but I can't remember the specifics. Of course this could all be Small Sample Size weirdness as well.
  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-1574-no-fans-good-field/

[andyb]

The whole talented player reasoning is more akin to the expansion arguments over the years that offense increases in expansion years. That is probably driven by a relatively small number of good pitchers while there is a larger number of AAAA hitters. Also, the pitcher usage reason makes sense. Starters going 4-5 innings at the beginning of the year means more bullpen innings. The expanded roster also means that each team has 2-3 relievers that would normally be in the minors (hello Trevor Kelley!).

If the ball is back to the 2017-2018 level that is a good thing even if it is hard to tell by the last few Phillies games with the ball flying out of the park in 90 degree weather.

[zambonir]

Yes I linked to the Sarris piece in my post and all those stats were the Phillies. I guess in a season like this you can't say it will all even out, but for the most part, if your offense is that good, your RISP will eventually catch up (maybe not all the way to the top, but they'll eventually be average. I suppose if you are a high OPS poor BA team RISP will also never be the focus of your offense. Doing well with runners on, not just in scoring position, also counts for a lot. It's just not fun to watch us draw those walks and then leave 'em on, especially when one of our theoretical top RBI guys is going all the walking.

[el-pietro]

Yes I linked to the Sarris piece in my post

Apologies, didn't spot the link!

[zambonir]

It was kind of opaque.

[RTaylor]

Zolecki says the Phils are calling up Bohm.

[andyb]

Would not be shocked if it is for Kingery. I guess Walker is more obvious, but I bet they want to hang onto him for a little bit more time.