2020 Philadelphia Phillies Season News/Notes/Discussion

[Lawman]

Just stop pretending. What we have in 2020 is a circus. I mean, it is, literally, a circus. It's a collection of entertaining exhibitions under the big top. It's not a baseball season.

I would have said that even if there were no interruptions given the rules in place this year.

[allentown]

You always want to eliminate that

True, it simply isn't fair. Truly impoverished teams need help, but the system is rigged. The Cardinals invariably are near the top in annual attendance. They've cut back big league salary budget this season, but since 2008, they'd been below $100 million end-of-year salary budget of $100 million only once (and that wa $98 million). Since 2003, they've been below $90 million once (and that was $87 million). They are a big market team given a big competitive advantage.

[allentown]

I don't see how they could legitimately cancel the Phillies, a team with no positive Covid tests among the players on the active roster we started the season with. What would be the justification? One coach and two ballpark staff? Then there is the question of even those cases likely being down to MLB deciding that the Marlins series should be played. 'My bad, you get the death penalty for it' is not going to be an easy sell.

[Lawman]

And now this, from @JeffPassan

Positive coronavirus tests with the St. Louis Cardinals have postponed their game against the Milwaukee Brewers, a source tells ESPN, confirming the @jonheyman report. Unclear how many, but to this point positives had been limited to teams in the East. Now in the Central, too.

If MLB is cancelling games due to positive tests, then no way to continue this "season."

[bkeich]

If MLB is cancelling games due to positive tests, then no way to continue this "season."

That should have been the protocol from the beginning because for a few days after a positive test they have no idea who on the Cardinals has been exposed and contracted.

Unless there is an same day test (and the virus can be detected in this way) there is just no way to do this.

On the upside at least they dont have to refund tickets

[Lawman]

I also haven't looked that closely, but there are no indications as to how many people tested positive.

I see no way NFL can do this if they follow a standard of 1 positive test on a team and instant quarantine and shut down.

[Philsmania]

I don't see how they could legitimately cancel the Phillies, a team with no positive Covid tests among the players on the active roster we started the season with. What would be the justification? One coach and two ballpark staff? Then there is the question of even those cases likely being down to MLB deciding that the Marlins series should be played. 'My bad, you get the death penalty for it' is not going to be an easy sell.

An excuse to keep an even number teams?

[BostonRoss]

I returned to Massachusetts from Pennsylvania on Wednesday. So that I didn't have to quarantine upon my return, I had scheduled a COVID test for Thursday. I had my negative result within an hour.

Is the test I took not good enough for MLB's purposes? If it is good enough, why can't MLB get results as quickly as I could? They obviously have more resources.

[el-pietro]

If the Cards are testing positive today, then surely the Twins have to go into Quarantine and wait for results over the next 3-5 days. And that takes out the Indians too as they played last night.

The Brewers are theoretically ok as they shouldn't have come into contact with the Cardinals yet, hopefully.

That would mean two outbreaks (Marlins and Cardinals) have stopped games for the Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays, Nationals, Brewers, Twins and Indians. Thats almost 1/3rd of the league.

If they are serious about trying to finish the year they need to embrace the idea of a fluid schedule. Shut teams down for a week to 10 days upon a positive case, and anyone they played in the last 3 days. Make up the schedule as you go with any teams who are left without opponents. Hopefully you can get every team to ~45 games.

I know I hate imbalanced schedules but I don't see any other way they can get the games in without seriously risking the health of everyone involved. The alternative is shut it down now and start putting in contingency plans for a series of bubbles in 2021 in case there is no vaccine available. I wonder how difficult it would be to build a facility on an island somewhere similar to the UFC Fight island idea. You don't need stands, just a fence and facilities for TV cameras/lights.

[el-pietro]

The problem is the incubation period. In your case you most likely haven't been in contact with a known positive case so the risk of you spreading the virus is low. Pass a test and on you go, but keep an eye out for symptoms obviously.

The Phillies have come into contact with multiple confirmed positives, including a coach on their own team just a couple of days ago, and anyone who came into contact with him should go into quarantine for 10-14 days, to ensure they are passed the incubation period. Thats not realistic but they are waiting until Monday at least so that will be about 5 days. If the coch and staffer hadn't tested positive then they would have waited from Sunday to Saturday, those tests pushed it back a cople of days. Hopefully no one else tests positive in the meantime.

[Lawman]

If they are serious about trying to finish the year they need to embrace the idea of a fluid schedule. Shut teams down for a week to 10 days upon a positive case, and anyone they played in the last 3 days. Make up the schedule as you go with any teams who are left without opponents. Hopefully you can get every team to ~45 games.

I'm not saying that MLB should be playing sans a bubble system. But, once you make a decision to play, there has to be a higher risk tolerance then this, or don't bother to start.

[BostonRoss]

My question was not so much about my need to quarantine but why the reports I’ve seen indicate that they aren’t even getting results for two days. I understand that a negative test doesn’t mean that the person definitely doesn’t have COVID, and someone who has been exposed may not test positive for a few days. I’m just wondering about the apparent lag between the administration of the test and getting the result.

[Lawman]

You took a rapid test, right? Could be that MLB is not doing rapids, but sending tests on to a lab.

[nycphils]

This has gotten ridiculous...The Phillies will now be 7 to 9 games behind the pace of the rest of the league...someone’s arm will get hurt or the games will be completely uncompetitive because the team will be forced to throw minor leaguers that aren’t prepared to get big leaguers out, not to mention 2 less turns to catch up if behind.

I’m fine at this point if the Phillies just opt out of the season. No point to all of this and just putting people at risk.

[andyb]

We could veer into the coronavirus thread pretty quickly, but rapid tests are not as accurate as the 24-48 hour tests.

'Faster doesn't mean better' | Rapid COVID-19 testing not as reliable as...

I am guessing MLB prefers the higher quality tests and getting dedicated lab resources to have the turnaround time under 24 hours is difficult these days.

[DurhamBull]

My understanding is that the rapid test is an antigen test which has a relatively high risk of false negatives. The nasal/throat swab is Nucleic Acid Amplification Testing (NAAT) which takes longer to process (24+ hours) but is more accurate.

I think the antigen test is most effective when taken in series. IOW, take it every day, and if you're getting sick, it will turn positive eventually even if it doesn't detect it immediately. It's not likely to be good at detecting an infection that's already on its way out.

The antigen test seems ideal for baseball teams.

[andyb]

The antigen test seems ideal for baseball teams.

I would probably advocate for daily antigen tests unless there is a breakout. Then you need the longer turnaround test (the molecular test) to really eliminate the false negatives. Sounds like they have mainly been doing the latter anyway as 24-48 hour turnaround times seem to be part of every story.

[allentown]

I got mocked when I originally wrote this, seems like a week ago, but MLB's decision to have the Phillies play the opening series with the Marlins has effectively ended the Phillies season. This was a totally irresponsible decision by the Cofmmissioner after 4 Marlins players tested positive. Marlins players played without masking. The SP for game 3 was struck before the game, because of Covid symptoms. Yet, that game also was played. We were the only team asked to play against an opponent with positive Covid cases, multiple ones. Then after playing a full 3-game series against team pandemic, we were the first team to be shut down with zero positive tests. We were the guinea pigs in both directions. The Commissioner was an incompetent fool and he put the lives of Phillies players and families in jeopardy and then decided that no other team should face a risk far less than the one the Phillies faced.

The Phillies, shut down for a week, not even able to practice, will face teams in well-into-season form, when they return to action as a team on the level of one playing their first ST game. It's over. Phillies management and ownership should be giving the Commissioner an earful.

It has become painfully obvious that the MLB head office is utterly clueless and simply making things up as they go along for their perceived sense of PR, and, I suppose, keeping the minimum number of owners happy for the Commissioner to keep his job. Absolutely pitiful.

[zambonir]

Where I disagreed with you was your apparent belief that the subsequent Phillies games shouldn't have been cancelled. But having screwed up with the Marlins three times (by letting them play Friday, Saturday and Sunday) they are now taking a much more conservative approach. And the fact that the Phillies had two positive tests yesterday suggests they were correct to not let the Phillies play or practice.

Now they are saying they might still let the Cardinals and Brewers play tomorrow if the outbreak is confined to a few players, which seems wrong.

Bad as MLB is, it's not surprising they are making it up as they go along because everyone has been, even our best scientists. Nobody really knows if the protocols and definition of "close contact" are sufficient, or if guidelines that apply in normal life (both outdoors and indoors) apply to baseball.

I think the Original Sin is twofold: 1) Being more focused on money than safety, as they wasted so much time on CBA/compensation when they could have had more runway to get this season played and 2) Not figuring out a modified bubble system - which was also about money, as the teams still have more TV and signage revenue streams being in their home parks, even without fans.

I think it was always clear that they didn't care/expected something like this to happen. If they actually play a season and 2-4 teams aren't participating, or if 2-10 teams are barely competitive, they will probably have to come up with some kind of draft pick compensation (in addition to all the other teams or the league making payroll).

Of course the real Original Sin is just trying to play, You can't expect things to go normally or well. MLS and NWSL worked because the minute a team had an outbreak their season was ended. Shutting down a team for 10-14 days is de facto the same thing so maybe that should have been the plan all along (and if they'd done it to the Marlins on Friday maybe it wouldn't have happened to the Phillies... yet).

[Lawman]

I think it was always clear that they didn't care/expected something like this to happen.

They had to, absolutely had to, have expected something like this to happen. What scares me is that it seems like it caught them completely unprepared. If that's true, then that's sheer incompetence. MLBPA can't complain too loudly b/c, in no small part, it's their own members who are at fault - the Marlins.