2020 Philadelphia Phillies Season News/Notes/Discussion

[bkeich]

How about instead of having a 60 man roster with 26-30 active we have two 30 man rosters both of which play double headers each day. Can get the 60 game season in 15 days. Whichever teams still have any not sick make the playoffs.

Or let’s just have a EA Sports MLB 2020 online tournament with the players Playing as themselves from remote locations.

Or better yet, save time and have each team select one player to be sacrificed and see if the Networks and owners are satisfied with that. We can televise the executions, maybe have a Hunger Games style fight to the death with only baseball bats as weapons.

[allentown]

While it's true that even if they pull a season off it won't be representative, it still has to be counted

If it's counted, then it has to determine the draft order. Since the 'big market advandtage' has been nulified this year, the additional charity picks should be eliminated and the international bonus pools should be equal.

If the season doesn't count, it would be unfair to reward the 2019 cellar dwellars with the early picks in two drafts, instead of the normal one. Since the draft is likely to be shortened yet again, all teams should be given the same bonus pool. Spend it however you choose. Perhaps draw lots for order in the first round, and then invert that order for all subsequent rounds. Perhaps not even have a draft or slots and just let each team spend the fixed pot of money however they choose. You can try to sign one of the top three projected talents or follow the AF formula and sign 20 mid-priced guys for $400K.

[Philsmania]

Is it possible that MLB could just cancel the Phillies and Marlins for the rest of the season and go with a 28 game season? Anytime someone was supposed to play the Phillies or Marlins, they can play the team that was supposed to play the corresponding team.

[zambonir]

If it's counted, then it has to determine the draft order. Since the 'big market advandtage' has been nulified this year, the additional charity picks should be eliminated and the international bonus pools should be equal.

You always want to eliminate that

I don't think it is true though. Big-market teams have bigger TV deals and bigger sponsorship deals. If anything, not being able to sell tickets to games probably makes the gap even wider. I think anything is possible (including some of what else you suggest, and a lottery) but the revenue formula that determines the picks will certainly still be in play. (It's also based on wins though, so that's one wrinkle.)

[Lawman]

Just stop pretending. What we have in 2020 is a circus. I mean, it is, literally, a circus. It's a collection of entertaining exhibitions under the big top. It's not a baseball season.

I would have said that even if there were no interruptions given the rules in place this year.

[allentown]

You always want to eliminate that

True, it simply isn't fair. Truly impoverished teams need help, but the system is rigged. The Cardinals invariably are near the top in annual attendance. They've cut back big league salary budget this season, but since 2008, they'd been below $100 million end-of-year salary budget of $100 million only once (and that wa $98 million). Since 2003, they've been below $90 million once (and that was $87 million). They are a big market team given a big competitive advantage.

[allentown]

I don't see how they could legitimately cancel the Phillies, a team with no positive Covid tests among the players on the active roster we started the season with. What would be the justification? One coach and two ballpark staff? Then there is the question of even those cases likely being down to MLB deciding that the Marlins series should be played. 'My bad, you get the death penalty for it' is not going to be an easy sell.

[Lawman]

And now this, from @JeffPassan

Positive coronavirus tests with the St. Louis Cardinals have postponed their game against the Milwaukee Brewers, a source tells ESPN, confirming the @jonheyman report. Unclear how many, but to this point positives had been limited to teams in the East. Now in the Central, too.

If MLB is cancelling games due to positive tests, then no way to continue this "season."

[bkeich]

If MLB is cancelling games due to positive tests, then no way to continue this "season."

That should have been the protocol from the beginning because for a few days after a positive test they have no idea who on the Cardinals has been exposed and contracted.

Unless there is an same day test (and the virus can be detected in this way) there is just no way to do this.

On the upside at least they dont have to refund tickets

[Lawman]

I also haven't looked that closely, but there are no indications as to how many people tested positive.

I see no way NFL can do this if they follow a standard of 1 positive test on a team and instant quarantine and shut down.

[Philsmania]

I don't see how they could legitimately cancel the Phillies, a team with no positive Covid tests among the players on the active roster we started the season with. What would be the justification? One coach and two ballpark staff? Then there is the question of even those cases likely being down to MLB deciding that the Marlins series should be played. 'My bad, you get the death penalty for it' is not going to be an easy sell.

An excuse to keep an even number teams?

[BostonRoss]

I returned to Massachusetts from Pennsylvania on Wednesday. So that I didn't have to quarantine upon my return, I had scheduled a COVID test for Thursday. I had my negative result within an hour.

Is the test I took not good enough for MLB's purposes? If it is good enough, why can't MLB get results as quickly as I could? They obviously have more resources.

[el-pietro]

If the Cards are testing positive today, then surely the Twins have to go into Quarantine and wait for results over the next 3-5 days. And that takes out the Indians too as they played last night.

The Brewers are theoretically ok as they shouldn't have come into contact with the Cardinals yet, hopefully.

That would mean two outbreaks (Marlins and Cardinals) have stopped games for the Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays, Nationals, Brewers, Twins and Indians. Thats almost 1/3rd of the league.

If they are serious about trying to finish the year they need to embrace the idea of a fluid schedule. Shut teams down for a week to 10 days upon a positive case, and anyone they played in the last 3 days. Make up the schedule as you go with any teams who are left without opponents. Hopefully you can get every team to ~45 games.

I know I hate imbalanced schedules but I don't see any other way they can get the games in without seriously risking the health of everyone involved. The alternative is shut it down now and start putting in contingency plans for a series of bubbles in 2021 in case there is no vaccine available. I wonder how difficult it would be to build a facility on an island somewhere similar to the UFC Fight island idea. You don't need stands, just a fence and facilities for TV cameras/lights.

[el-pietro]

The problem is the incubation period. In your case you most likely haven't been in contact with a known positive case so the risk of you spreading the virus is low. Pass a test and on you go, but keep an eye out for symptoms obviously.

The Phillies have come into contact with multiple confirmed positives, including a coach on their own team just a couple of days ago, and anyone who came into contact with him should go into quarantine for 10-14 days, to ensure they are passed the incubation period. Thats not realistic but they are waiting until Monday at least so that will be about 5 days. If the coch and staffer hadn't tested positive then they would have waited from Sunday to Saturday, those tests pushed it back a cople of days. Hopefully no one else tests positive in the meantime.

[Lawman]

If they are serious about trying to finish the year they need to embrace the idea of a fluid schedule. Shut teams down for a week to 10 days upon a positive case, and anyone they played in the last 3 days. Make up the schedule as you go with any teams who are left without opponents. Hopefully you can get every team to ~45 games.

I'm not saying that MLB should be playing sans a bubble system. But, once you make a decision to play, there has to be a higher risk tolerance then this, or don't bother to start.

[BostonRoss]

My question was not so much about my need to quarantine but why the reports I’ve seen indicate that they aren’t even getting results for two days. I understand that a negative test doesn’t mean that the person definitely doesn’t have COVID, and someone who has been exposed may not test positive for a few days. I’m just wondering about the apparent lag between the administration of the test and getting the result.

[Lawman]

You took a rapid test, right? Could be that MLB is not doing rapids, but sending tests on to a lab.

[nycphils]

This has gotten ridiculous...The Phillies will now be 7 to 9 games behind the pace of the rest of the league...someone’s arm will get hurt or the games will be completely uncompetitive because the team will be forced to throw minor leaguers that aren’t prepared to get big leaguers out, not to mention 2 less turns to catch up if behind.

I’m fine at this point if the Phillies just opt out of the season. No point to all of this and just putting people at risk.

[andyb]

We could veer into the coronavirus thread pretty quickly, but rapid tests are not as accurate as the 24-48 hour tests.

'Faster doesn't mean better' | Rapid COVID-19 testing not as reliable as...

I am guessing MLB prefers the higher quality tests and getting dedicated lab resources to have the turnaround time under 24 hours is difficult these days.

[DurhamBull]

My understanding is that the rapid test is an antigen test which has a relatively high risk of false negatives. The nasal/throat swab is Nucleic Acid Amplification Testing (NAAT) which takes longer to process (24+ hours) but is more accurate.

I think the antigen test is most effective when taken in series. IOW, take it every day, and if you're getting sick, it will turn positive eventually even if it doesn't detect it immediately. It's not likely to be good at detecting an infection that's already on its way out.

The antigen test seems ideal for baseball teams.