2020 MLB Draft Speculation

BostonRoss 2020-05-09 22:39:56 UTC #81

Isn’t DFW larger?

zambonir 2020-05-09 23:36:06 UTC #82

Oh, as a metro area I suppose so. Heck, Fort Worth itself is larger than most MLB cities (including San Francisco and Boston).

Some teams are claiming they will use the money saved on this draft to pay their employees.

LoneStarPhan 2020-05-09 23:57:07 UTC #83

Yes, the DFW metro area is estimated to be about 500,000 larger than the Houston metro area. DFW is 4th largest in US and Houston 5th. Also, there are large populations located between DFW and Houston centered around Austin and San Antonio.

San Antonio is the 7th most populated city in the US, bigger than #9 Dallas. Austin is #11.

Here in the DFW metro area, Fort Worth is now estimated to be the #12 city in population. The second largest city in our county (Arlington) is ahead of New Orleans in population and almost as big as Tampa, and close to Minneapolis and Oakland. Of course, the new census will be the official determination of population ranks.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/

andyb 2020-05-10 13:02:22 UTC #84

Law on the draft:

Mostly about the long term consequences for the players (not good) and how MLB wins from this since they get prospects at a reduced cost for major league value far in the future.

One wrinkle - top 3 rounds of picks are protected. So if this draft is mediocre and the next draft is loaded, it might be wiser to postpone till next year. Not sure this matters with first round picks, but I might think about it with the Phillies' 3rd round pick. Of course that also hurts players if they get drafted and their only offer is significantly below slot.

gmwannabe 2020-05-10 13:46:36 UTC #85

Hmmmm. how about this. Since such an unprecedented time, the waiver of free agency, loss of draft picks. in the works??
gm

julio 2020-05-10 15:24:27 UTC #86

Given the QO process, I don’t see that as necessary. The draft pick loss only applies to QO'ed FAs, and a player can only be QO'ed once. So if a player is QO'ed this fall, after a non-season or mini-season, the obvious strategy is to accept the offer, take the guaranteed salary, and go FA again after 2021, with no QO.

The complication here is the pending change to the CBA after 2021. But I’m not convinced there won’t be a fairly quick settlement of that; the 2020 season is already partially lost, and not withstanding optimistic hopes about “reopening,” more of the season is at risk if premature “opening” leads to a midsummer surge in CV-19 cases. Does MLB really want to risk losing the 2022 season as well?

zambonir 2020-05-10 18:16:01 UTC #87

I posted about this in the virus thread, but how do you see that going? The players caving fast since public sentiment will be "give us baseball you overpaid bums"? Because even with all the hits ownership might take over the next two years I doubt MLB is going to suddenly get labor-friendly and concede things like service time, early-career salaries and arbitration, all the issues that have come to the forefront in the past few years. And MLBPA is also not gonna agree to a cap or reduced luxury tax - if anything lost revenues make it even more important for them to make sure the players are capturing the fairest possible % of it.

What might be in order is an agreement to just extend the current CBA one more year, in conjunction with whatever concessions will already be necessary to deal with 2021 (even if it is 100% safe and legal to have full capacity stadiums, you're still going to have poor attendance and broke fans). We're already seeing things like the DH and automatic umpiring creeping in early.

Squire 2020-05-13 12:49:44 UTC #88

Just curious.....do you think the 5 round draft (Phillies with 4 picks) and the possibility of no minor leagues this year will affect the Phillies strategy, if at all. More college, more HS?

Squire 2020-05-13 13:05:52 UTC #89

My Phillies First Round Strategy:

I think I am back on my "its better to get something rather than nothing" view of the first round. So if any of the College Position Players fall to them at 15, that's my pick (Torkelson, Martin, Gonzalez, Mitchell, Kjerstad, Bailey in that order).
If one of those guys does not get there, then I want a College Pitcher (Lacy, Detmers, Hancock, Crochet, Meyer, Cavalli, Wilcox, Ginn in that order)

andyb 2020-05-13 13:30:16 UTC #90

Sometimes we overthink this. In the first round I think best player available. It would be foolish to go for a college player thinking they will play this year. Remember, while they will not be overworked after their junior season, they also will not have a season at all. They will be rusty and counting on them in the majors without any minor league season is just wishful thinking.

In rounds 1 and 3, with protected picks, I certainly entertain high ceiling HS players. There will be pressure to sign for slot this year. So a player that might have required more money in the past might sign today. If they don't, we get the same pick in a better draft next year. So they should be aggressive in picking high ceiling talent and they win if they don't sign them. Rounds 4 and 5 probably go back to signable college picks. For us that probably means another command-oriented college pitcher. Probably a polished college bat with the other. This is not the spot for toolsy picks because this pick won't be protected. And there is no saving money for later picks as the $20,000 signees will probably be heavy on college seniors and low-ceiling college juniors who might get pushed out of their scholarships.

So high ceiling rounds 1 and 3. Low ceiling signable rounds 4 and 5.

fish 2020-05-13 13:31:41 UTC #91

Keith Law mocks the Phil's taking Pennsylvania 19 yr old OF Austin Hendrick. If 19 year old highschoolers don't have the lowest success rate in the draft, it must be close..

It seems like "safe" college guys will rule the day, especially with high school kids having the flexibility to decline to sign and wait out for a better payday. But another line of thinking is that college guys age another year into their 20s without development- so if there is a high school guy they felt good about going into this, there is certainly a case to go after them.

I'm still cheesed at mlb for taking the Phillies pick for signing Papelbon only because they signed him before the rules changed that winter- they owe them that pick back this year! lol.

andyb 2020-05-13 13:57:31 UTC #92

Hendrick seems really risky. Top of the round tools but then contact issues against better competition (when he was a bit older than everyone else). Plus, if they lose much of this year, he'd have only 3 years to play before a rule 5 decision.

andyb 2020-05-13 13:58:20 UTC #93

Another article critical of the short draft:

fish 2020-05-13 15:13:16 UTC #94

For whatever it's worth, the Yankee's last two first round high school picks Rutherford and Seigler were either 19 or a few days short of 19 when they were drafted. Barber can either choose to take note that those picks haven't done well, or disregard that in his evaluations.

andyb 2020-05-13 15:19:18 UTC #95

Do teams this year retain the ability to spend unused slot money on free agents after the 5 rounds? I have not seen this addresses specifically. Only that bonuses are limited to $20,000. Could a team save money on their top pick (or do the college senior in round 5) to then spend several hundred thousand on a few free agents?

Not sure I would advocate this strategy, but it would add another incentive to pick a safer college player with the top pick to add a player or two later on. It is tougher to do with a $20K base as opposed to $125K, but not impossible.

xogfog 2020-05-13 16:13:09 UTC #96

If that would be the case and you can spend unlimited on free agents, then I would draft all the highest talent available, college or HS with the 4 picks and then spend like crazy to get whatever talent they can get in free agency. It could be a way to restock a pretty barren farm system, problem is, all the other teams will do the same, so Middleton would have to pony up.

andyb 2020-05-13 16:19:23 UTC #97

One cannot spend unlimited dollars on free agents with the $20K limit. And slots still exist for the first few rounds. This is definitely not the year to stock the farm system this way as the talent pool may not be great. Next year, on the other hand, could be full of prospects. Many HS prospects that had no chance to shine in their senior season will go the JC route and make next year's draft really deep. Not necessarily at the top, but rounds 3-6 should be much better than average because of this.

Squire 2020-05-13 16:32:52 UTC #98

BA Mocked us Hendricks today too

andyb 2020-05-13 17:39:18 UTC #100

Kiley McDaniel on the shorter draft. And his mock from a few days ago (Phillies get Patrick Bailey NC State catcher):

zambonir 2020-05-13 19:12:18 UTC #101

I would think the pool is going to be adjusted too, or are the amounts so inconsequential between rounds 5 and 40 that it won't matter?

But "several hundred thousand" would be 60 players (if several is more than two). Isn't there still some kind of roster limit (with a bigger one coming once they formally implement the new minor league structure)?