2020 MLB Draft Speculation

[fish]

MLBpipeline has Chicago high school shortstop Ed Howard ranked 15 and high school OF Robert Hassell ranked 16. I like them both. While I don’t really like the idea of a Chicago area HS player that high, Howard has a build that looks like he’ll become a powerful dude someday, while being a pretty good shortstop now.

[fish]

Jonathan Mayo’s mock has Hassell to the Phils-for what it’s worth, there is much more convincing video of him out there other than what they posted.

[gmwannabe]

Jeff Jackson!!!

[bigegypt0417]

Howard has a much stronger pedigree and really did well on the national circuit.

[gmwannabe]

That's good to hear.

[Squire]

Opening Paragraph of BA Phillies Draft Preview:

STATE OF THE SYSTEM: The Phillies have graduated most of their few draft successes to the majors (Austin Nola, Rhys Hoskins, Scott Kingery, Adam Haseley), giving them presently one of MLB’s shallowest and worst farm systems. Righthander Spencer Howard and third baseman Alec Bohm at least give Philadelphia two prospects at the top to work with.

They lost me at "Austin" Nola though

[bigegypt0417]

A 5 round draft sounds like a horrible idea.

[bkeich]

A 5 round draft sounds like a horrible idea.

It will be the fewest bad picks we have made in a long time at least.

[zambonir]

They lost me at "Austin" Nola though

Like typing Jeremy instead of Jason. It happens (and I bet they are not at full-strength editorially), but obviously not written by someone who lives and breathes Phillies.

[LoneStarPhan]

Seems like a losing strategy on the draft modifications. Won't this ultimately result in baseball losing out on some talent?

[zambonir]

Where are they gonna go? There might not even be college baseball in 2021. There's almost certainly going to be less opportunity (whole programs folding or fewer shares of the already-partial scholarships).

Not defending it, mind you. It's the usual nonsense, amped up - between the new minor league plan and the virus. Finding ways to pay players less while also trying to chip away at the big-market teams' advantage. Seems to me whatever goodwill MLB was trying to create by supposedly giving minor league players higher salaries and better working conditions (one of their arguments for cutting the lower levels and struggling markets) will be cancelled out, massively, by the lost bonuses of guys who previously would have been taken 6-10 (or as "talk him out of college" lower round flier).

[andyb]

The 5-round draft PLUS the $20,000 limit on other bonuses. I think MLB saves $30 million total on the slots from rounds 6-10, but I imagine the $20,000 limit (vs $125,000) saves much more. The Phillies had $2.6 million in bonuses after the 10th round in 2019. While that might be a little above average for the league, it probably averages at least $60 million. So MLB is saving at least $90 million here.

The result is a lot of 23rd round draft choice types will give up baseball. Or consider other sports. The NFL did not lower draft bonuses at all. Colleges won't have additional scholarships for kids staying in school. The loser here will be baseball in the long run. They could have kept the draft at 20 rounds, frozen the slots at 2019 levels. Even dropped them 10%. And kept the $125K limit on other bonuses. That would have kept these kids playing baseball and helped the game in the long run.

[Squire]

I wonder if you will see some American HS kids or college juniors sign in Japan/Korea the way that Boras took Carter Stewart over there.

[andyb]

I wonder if you will see some American HS kids or college juniors sign in Japan/Korea the way that Boras took Carter Stewart over there.

Probably less HS kids, but certainly college kids. There are foreign limits in those leagues so the people that do it would need to be relatively good and ready to play. Maybe this is more for the polished college senior (those 9th and 10th round underslot guys). The player would need to be good enough to play as one of 3 or 4 foreigners on a Japanese minor league team and then on the big club.

I just think it is more likely some players that might have gotten a $100,000 bonus before now can only play in an independent league or become an Amazon delivery driver. Some of the players the Phillies typically go overslot on might be thinking about playing football instead of baseball. A Kendall Simmons for instance.

[fish]

It would be nice if they scrapped losing draft picks for free agent signings this year to give as much opportunity for players and teams in as much as they’ve restricted entry into the game.

[andyb]

From a Phillies perspective of course I want the lost pick for Wheeler out of this draft because the talent in this draft is likely to be far less than the talent in next year's draft.

[zambonir]

Basically Jeff Luhnow and his former assistants (the Milwaukee and Baltimore GMs) made a spreadsheet which tells MLB the money saved is worth more than the talent lost, even if it makes the product worse (for customers and employees) in all kinds of tangible and intangible ways. Just like any any efficiency consultant in any industry.

It's ironic that this is all going to go down while Luhnow is suspended, including the possible changes to the minors.

[andyb]

I could also believe that the Jeff Luhnows of the world thought this new system might give them a competitive advantage. The Astros cannot afford quite the development system that the Yankees have - and they think their analytics are better than anyone else. Why not create a system that helps the type of organization you run and sell it by saying it saves money?

This is an argument not unlike partisan politics where each side does things to help their own party and the overall good of the country is a lesser goal.

[zambonir]

For sure - the Astros have always operated like a small-market team despite being in the fourth-largest city in America (and the largest metro area with only one team). McLane was cheap and Crane is not super-rich.

Of course, we remember what that's like.

But in the past few years it seems even the largest market teams are just as happy to put the squeeze on as the other owners (i.e. the free agent market and treating the tax as a hard cap. Hey, remember when that seemed important for the 2020 Phillies?)

[andyb]

But in the past few years it seems even the largest market teams are just as happy to put the squeeze on as the other owners (i.e. the free agent market and treating the tax as a hard cap. Hey, remember when that seemed important for the 2020 Phillies?)

This has always been true to some degree. Especially in sports with a hard cap. If expenses are limited and revenues are shared at a relatively low level (below 50%), sticking with the caps means windfall profits. We know the Yankees would probably be profitable with a $300 million payroll. They can still be one of the top 3 spenders in baseball AND make windfall profits.