2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[phillychuck]

Yeah, and my memory was wrong...he was solid for the Phils in 2006, but plagued by injuries in 2007 and 2008.

[LoneStarPhan]

I think we sometimes overlook the fact that so many high round picks in the MLB draft don't make it. We tend to concentrate on the failed Phillies picks and selectively point to players picked after the failed Phillie pick who have made it.

That said, the Phillies could have taken Frank Thomas.

[julio]

I think we sometimes overlook the fact that so many high round picks in the MLB draft don't make it. We tend to concentrate on the failed Phillies picks and selectively point to players picked after the failed Phillie pick who have made it.

That said, the Phillies could have taken Frank Thomas.

The Phillies could have chosen Mike Piazza, too. About 61 times.

Strange things happen in the draft sometimes.

[zambonir]

Robertson reminds me more of Mike Adams, except Mike Adams was already a known physical disaster (I think we even got a discount).

Gordon is a big reason Brett Myers became a closer and moving Myers back is the reason we got Lidge.

[schillingfan]

Was looking at the roster and realized that it still is young. Harper is only six months older than Hoskins. He won’t be 27 until this fall. Realmuto is 28 and Segura is 29. Nola only turned 26 in June. Klentak did a pretty good job of getting younger players in the offseason. Add a good starter and we’re winning 90 games.

[bkox]

I dont understand why Realmuto is getting grief here. According to fangraphs WAR hes the second most valuable catcher in MLB.

And remember when everyone was complaining because Alfaro was putting up better numbers? Have you looked lately? 3.3% walk rate. .299OBP. 33% K rate.

[zambonir]

People had high expectations is all. When Harper signed Joe Sheehan (not usually prone to hyperbole or lack of skepticism) predicted he'd hit 700 career home runs thanks to CBP, and there were similar expectations for Realmuto's transition from Miami. In reality he could be a #7 hitter and still be worth re-signing in a heartbreat.

Also, we are slow to catch up when lulls end. JT's been on fire for like a month and his OPS is now almost exactly his career OPS. Still, it was .825 last year and people not only wanted that, but more!

[mdougherty12]

Realmuto got the “best catcher in baseball” tag this past offseason. I think some phans heard that talk and thought the Phils were getting something like prime Buster Posey. Realmuto isn’t an elite hitter, though, he’s an elite defensive catcher and a very good hitter (great for a catcher).

[Austinfan]

The real problem this year was Herrera's meltdown, Cutch's injury and Franco's regression.
And of course the pitching woes.

[Florida_Sunshine]

When you add that up, it’s quite a bit.

[DurhamBull]

Was looking at the roster and realized that it still is young. Harper is only six months older than Hoskins. He won’t be 27 until this fall. Realmuto is 28 and Segura is 29. Nola only turned 26 in June. Klentak did a pretty good job of getting younger players in the offseason. Add a good starter and we’re winning 90 games.

Yeah, Harper always throws me because he's already had a significant career. Then I remember that he debuted at 19 (!) which explains how he's still just 26. He's an amazing talent.

[andyb]

Alfaro is having about the same season as last season. Slightly lower walk rate, a little more power (especially in a tougher park but it could also be the baseballs). He has been good on defense though nowhere near as good as Realmuto.

That trade was always about 2 years of Realmuto for 5 years of Alfaro and 6+ years of Sixto Sanchez. Realmuto was supposed to be better and is better. The issue for the Phillies is you only make that trade if you are competing for a division in 2019 and 2020. This year it looks like we are not (for various reasons). For this trade to be a win for the Phillies they need to win in the playoffs this year or next. There was also probably a reasonable expectation that Realmuto would take a step up on offense in a better park (850 OPS perhaps). That has not happened though I suspect it has been nagging injuries more than Realmuto regressing.

The whole "best catcher in baseball" thing was also a little unfair. He is arguably the best current catcher. That is mainly because there are no great catchers now, especially after Posey and Molina have gotten old.

[Austinfan]

The point of having money isn't to overpay for free agents, but primarily to keep the core together (which is what kills lower budget teams) - if Realmuto is for real, you work out an extension so he can anchor the team for another 4-5 years.

[bigegypt0417]

The point of having money isn't to overpay for free agents, but primarily to keep the core together (which is what kills lower budget teams) - if Realmuto is for real, you work out an extension so he can anchor the team for another 4-5 years.

The point of having money is to use that money to fill in holes and add premium talent when it becomes available. Your viewpoint on payroll is old and outdated. The phillies are in a financial position where they can afford "mistakes" when they happen.

Keeping your core together is useless if you don't surround it with talent for that core to be successful.

[andyb]

Except that has nothing to do with the trade. We traded for 2 years of Realmuto. Anything beyond that is market price.

The point of having money is to maximize the amount of talent on your roster. Sometimes that is signing free agents when you have holes. Sometimes it is resigning your own players. Sometimes it is using money to trade for other players. Frankly I am not sure we have much of a core to "keep together". Even Hoskins could be a $30 million/year bad bet to resign when his contract comes up. Segura and Hernandez and McCutchen and most of our young pitchers probably won't be resigned as free agents. Nola and Kingery were wisely signed to long term deals. And Harper of course was a free agent. It is just not that deep a core to keep at this point.

[bkeich]

I think we do have a fairly solid core of hitters. All of them are at least average if not better except CF and 3B and we have prospects that might fill those spots.

Our problem really is starting pitching, relievers and injuries. We really only have 1 starting pitcher and a few relievers that are solid. Arrieta is worthy of a roster spot, but that is about it. We almost need a complete redo of much of the pitching staff and unfortunately we are completely lacking in near term replacements in our minor leagues. Velasquez, Pivetta and Eflin might be solid starters someday, but they arent today and are not making any progress at all (better coaching needed? Not sure). Vargas and Smyly are just stop gaps, and pretty bad ones at that. If we were smart we would look at adding at least 2 starters this offseason.

Our bullpen is more complex. The guys on the IL would be a reasonable good bullpen I suspect. Some will return, some will not, it is going to be very hard to judge what to do this offseason. 2-3 of Velasquez, Pivetta and Eflin may also get added to our bullpen, which further complicates things. Klentak is going to have a tough job this offseason just judging what moves to make in the pen, frankly, I think this year shows it is better to have more bullpen arms than not enough.

But this biggest issue with this team is that virtually everyone is underachieving. Veterans with years are having seasons at the bottom of their expectations. Young players are doing ok, but not really progressing (except Kingery, Hammer). I think we probably do have a very real issue in coaching. Someone needs to step in and either get Kapler a better staff or get another coach, this just is not working as is.

Franco either needs to move to the bench or be traded, probably the same with Williams. Herrera is going to be a huge headache for this team I suspect, he might be untradeable.

Klentak is going to have a make/break offseason again, he succeeded last offseason (although it doesnt look like it is working out, not really his fault), but the number of issues that MUST be addressed is mounting and taking the trade deadline off (minus Dickerson and some dumpster diving) is not going to help.

[zambonir]

Being aggressive at the trade deadline wasn't going to help either, if you had to trade your next CF, 3B or SP.

Truth is the hitters aren't really underachieving that much. Realmuto will probably end up having a normal year; perhaps he overachieved or peaked last year; as a catcher you never know what's up with his body, plus he was dealing with fatherhood (seems like his play has picked up since they had the baby actually). Ditto Harper, who may yet match last year but is going to have a season just like half his career in any case. We might wish it was like the other half (and that might be a long-term concern) but that doesn't mean there was a fixable problem. Cesar is coming off an injury and is reaching the end of his most productive years. Segura's OPS is actually higher than it was last year at the moment. And Franco and Herrera just aren't/weren't fixable I suspect. Hoskins is Hoskins.

We're 8th in the NL in runs scored; with Cutch and CF it's probably a Top 5 offense, and with a bullpen - even more so than the starters but it's basically either/or - we're leading the division. Or at least would have been in the race enough to do more at the deadline. Some other offensive categories don't look so great (like team OPS) but that's being dragged down by black holes in three line-up spots. The one thing Klentak and the coaches do need to figure out is the lack of home runs. I'm sure if and when Kapler returns (which is likely) there will be changes, just because.

In spite of everything we're tied with the Brewers and Cubs, two teams with much greater accomplishments and expectations than a team that lost 82 games last season.

As for next year, Williams won't be here, Franco won't be here, Quinn might not even be here. who can even say about Cesar. Herrera will either be traded, bought out, released or will actually be an asset, should the Phillies want him and want to take the PR hit. Building a new bullpen won't be that hard, though if Robertson, Seranthony and Arano are all question marks they will have to sign at least one free agent. And you probably trade at least one of this year's starters rather than converting two of them to relief.

[allentown]

The starting pitchers weren't as good as I expected. The Arrietta injury is part of that, but the young starters not named Nola can only be regarded as significant disappointments. Nola started the season on the wrong foot and that also cost a couple of wins. Then the bullpen sustained a ton of injuries. I think that raises a lot of questions which the Phillies organization needs to answer. As one who believes that SF's view that relievers are fungible and are so on-off season to season that paying big $ after a guy has a good season is foolish, I would suggest these questions for MacPhail and Middleton and as introspection for Klentak, Kapler, and our stat guys: does it really make any sense to apportion such a big chunk of payroll to the bullpen, have we really been doing even an adequate job in identifying FA relievers to sign -- the results certainly suggest otherwise, is our use pattern for relievers part of the cause of injuries -- what about our training program? I still strongly believe that Klentak did the correct things at the trade deadline. We should not sacrifice any more of our top 10 prospects.

I also agree we are set to challenge again next season and that we should look strongly and be willing to overpay for the right FAs. Trades in which we make use of our $ resources are also a plus. The team needs to be able to extend the players they want to keep going forward, but that should be done in the light of consistently planning to have a $200 million player salary budget.

I don't think the Phillies LA scouting, player development, defensive alignment, hitting/pitching philosophy or at least implementation thereof are yet where they need to be. We do seem to be doing better on the draft. I still wouldn't trust the Phillies to take a H.S. kid as a first rounder -- a large part of the improved success seems to be shifting to using primo picks on college guys. Stats can help to evaluate college players, not so LA and H.S. talent. I think an honest look at the H.S. and LA talent on whom we have spent the biggest $ shows we've done poorly. Guys with smaller bonuses have done as well or better. That is a very serious problem, since it was those huge bonuses which were most likely to produce stars.

[bigegypt0417]

https://twitter.com/JackFritzWIP/status/1157257933622845440?s=19

[andyb]

The question of whether JT Realmuto is good or better than Alfaro (he is) is very different than the question of whether 2 years of Realmuto is more valuable than 5 years of Alfaro plus 6-7 years of Sixto Sanchez (look at his last 4 starts).