2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[Patchmk88]

Ask yourself this question- if the Phils had signed Michael Brantley instead, do you think he'd be hitting .321 on this team? I don't think so. There seems to be something deeply flawed here in coaching/philosophy/culture...something.

This x 100

[LoneStarPhan]

The reliever referenced above was, I believe, "Flash" Gordon.

[EDmuch]

I agree there is something about the "culture" of this team that works against performance at a high level. Seems to me that the management is always ready to hop on new trends without really understanding the basis for the trends. That was certainly true with defensive shifts last year and this year the whole "launch angle" fad seems to spreading a lot of ineffectiveness through out teh lineup.

[jimbomill]

neshak and Robertson didn't even pitch 25 innings combined. Tommy hunter had a lot of innings last year but 5.1 this year.

That's a lot of $$$ for so few innings ...

[philsphan67]

I've stated this before (in reference to Brantley) I think the Phils approach of taking pitches just to take them and run up the pitchers count is detrimental to most hitters. The Yankees and Astros are taught to look for their pitch early and swing. The Phillies approach puts them in a lot of two strike holes.

IMO the Phillies biggest problem has been developing or trading for pitching that can come up through the minors and help. Although most teams really need starters. When a team relies on older arms, pitchers can break down (witness Neshak, Robertson and Hunter).

On a final note -- The Phillies seem to develop less major league talent than other teams. Theoretically every team should have 25 players in the majors (regardless of the team) at once, I'd be interested to see where the Phillies stand with that metric.

[allentown]

Shore up the rotation on the cheap and pick up a bat bench.

I think quite possibly more than a bench bat. Perhaps the lead-off hitter we've needed since McCutcheon went down.

[Lawman]

No disagreement, but I'll label him a bat bench until I see how they utilize him.

[andyb]

This is a little bit of why I am happy they have flipped Hoskins and Harper in the lineup. They both take their walks, but Harper swings at a whole lot more first pitches. Might as well have the high OBP player in front of him as opposed to behind. I might put them 2/3 in the lineup behind Segura leading off (or Cesar or Kingery - it may not matter too much now).

Corey Dickerson is another hitter with a more aggressive approach, so the lineup dynamic may be shifting a bit. I just think getting the pitch count up is a bit less important now because teams are not letting that pitcher pitch through the lineup a 3rd time anyway. Does not matter as much if the first 2 trips take 75 or 95 pitches.

A philosophy of taking pitches is not necessarily wrong. It works for Hoskins. If I had to criticize the team approach it might be trying to change hitters that had something that was working for them. Whether they added launch angle or implored them to take more pitches, whatever they did does not seem to be helping some hitters.

[California_Dreamin]

andyb...some? Organization wise, how about most? As with almost everything historical about this team, they discover something 2-3 years after other teams have. NOW, they are encouraging hitters to work counts. Problem is, it no longer matters since a starter who goes more than 5-6 innings in getting harder to find than Sasquatch.

I think the Phils may regret ever learning that Driveline exists. The Phils have become that most intolerable of teams...mediocre and boring.

[andyb]

Right now all we are doing is speculating though. I don't want to ascribe blame when things might just happen by chance. Guys like Segura and Hernandez might be expected to decline at age 29, which is older than the typical peak of age 27. Realmuto may be playing with nagging injuries. Franco may have been limited offensively in the first place.

I don't think we can say whether it is the organization's coaching that is causing this. Now I have been critical of the shifting because of stats that said last year we were in the bottom of runs saved with shifts. That happened long enough that one could say there was evidence that the organization was just not good at it (or secondarily that our fielders were generally below average so moving them around does not help as much as moving good fielders around).

As someone who can be critical of the Phillies, this is an area where I am watching but not really concluding because there are just so many variables involved. On the starting rotation I was not opposed to going with the 3 young starters after Nola and Jake. But I also thought they should have signed Keuchel at midseason when it was pretty apparent the back of the rotation had issues.

Klentak is learning. I think he came in with big analytic ideas and tried to do things that worked elsewhere with different players and maybe they should not have been tried with our roster. He at least admits his mistakes. I agree with not trading prospects at the deadline, though I wish we could have found a way to spend $10 million to get more of a difference maker. He and Kapler probably get a grade in the C+ range at this point. Still too early to move on IMO.

[zambonir]

Regarding Ford's column, Sean Rodriguez did throw one inning of relief. Does that make him a "relief pitcher"?

Yup I considered it was a joke, but in reality I think he simply cross-checked the IL with the pitching stats, in total ignorance of who some of the players actually are.

[California_Dreamin]

andyb...I am not talking merely about the major league club. Far from it. Truth be told, I have always had a greater affinity for the minor league clubs, probably brought on by the reality that the major league team has had far more bad years than good ones since I discovered the Phillies in 1964.

At the minor league level there are far too many young hitters below the Mendoza line for my tastes. Trust me, you have to try really hard to hit below .200 in the minor leagues, you just do. And too many youngsters who came to the organization with a reputation of solid hitting prospects are offensively floundering for my tastes. We know the guys I am talking about...Ortiz, Vierling, Randolph, even Moniak [though I still have hope for him.

And I find it curious that guys who came to the Phillies from other organizations and had always hit well [Jose Gomez comes to mind instantly] suddenly look like they have no concept of hitting anymore.]

I believe there is a systemic weakness in the organization and it doesn't seem to ever improve, regardless of the latest fad the Phils decide to adopt.

Fish said it perfectly...does anyone believe Brantley would be hitting as well with the Phillies? I sure don't. Yes, there have been injuries but the offense has been a disaster this year...unmitigated, especially given that A] the ball is juiced and most teams are having homer field days and B] the Phils play in a park that practically screams "hit the ball and watch it go."

I have said it before and will say it again...the Phil have overdone this 3 True Outcomes and I still think its a lie and will end up in the ash heap of baseball foolishness. Playing defense against the Phillies, unless you are a pitcher or catcher is almost like a day at the beach. No bunts, no hit and run, no steals, no effort to challenge the defense and steal runs.

And I continue to believe Kapler is at the heart of the problem, his trite and almost computerized comments after every game are tiresome and old.

[andyb]

I have to think a 30-something vet like Brantley would do just as well with the Phillies as elsewhere. Though I get your point on the minors. There are too many Cole Stobbe's out there among high draftees to ignore that instruction might be part of the problem.

[zambonir]

I don't see how we can say the problem is Kapler or three true outcomes on the one hand, and Phillies history since 1964 on the other (though many of the development problems are still left over from the Giles/Monty era).

It's always something, isn't it? Five years ago we had a GM who supposedly cared so little about walks that he didn't know they didn't count as ABs.

[Austinfan]

I think people are overreacting.

1) In April, how many wins did you expect after adding Harper? I had them at 85-90, they're still on pace for 85 despite a horrendous string of injuries and a number of under peforming players, and that coming off 66 and 80 win seasons. The bullpen, Arrieta, Herrera, Cutch - that's a lot for a marginal contender to handle.

2) The hitting approach is not to take pitches, but to swing at your pitch (pitches the hitter can handle) with less than two strikes, instead of chasing pitches outside the K zone or making weak contact on a pitch in the K-zone. I think some players have struggled adjusting, but this is one of the talent filters, if you can't improve your mental approach to the game, maybe you need a new address (Franco).

3) The minor league struggles are partially some players just not being as good as hoped (Ortiz), but also a lot of aggressive promotions, testing prospects. One thing I noticed going through rosters, Klentak isn't drafting a bunch of 23-24 year old seniors to fill out rosters at lower levels but a lot of 20-21 JC and JRs - that will hurt performance but provide the chance to find a diamond in the rough.

4) It took a decade to dig a really deep hole for this organization, bad drafting, trading/losing draft picks and prospects, failure to aggressively pursue LA talent when money could be spent. I don't know if Klentak is on the right track, but I do know it'll take 3-5 years to turn the farm system around.

5) You can't buy your way into contention, you not only have to draft/develop well, you have to hit on guys "from the shadows." Klentak may have learned his lesson, spend big or not at all, that is, either target top players (and I'd avoid pitchers for the most part, Arrieta et al) or go bargain shopping - Smyly is a good example how you can get lucky if you buy a bunch of cheap lottery tickets.

[nycphils]

I don’t know what the problem is, but I’m ready for them to go to Epstein or Luhnow or Friedman or someone with a recent high end track record and open up the checkbook and let them clean house. I think I’m where Fish is - I don’t know what the problem is but ultimately it is hard to fail in every possible way in both the majors and the minors year after year and not conclude that there is something wrong.

Whatever it costs, it will be more efficient than spending another $25m a year for relievers that contribute practically nothing. Maybe I’ll feel differently tomorrow, but that’s where I am today FWIW.

[Austinfan]

Ortiz was a question mark when we signed him, poster child for committing to a 14 year old who matured early and is now a mediocre athlete (see Encarnacion). Randolph was a whiff, a mediocre HS athlete who got thicker and his bat got slower. I think the problem is more scouting (and it takes years to move out the old guys and replace them since good scouts are often on multi-year contracts and not immediately available). Though they seem to have improved the last few years.

They have had some hits, Stephen is 21 in AA ball, May to July, .723, .773, .882 OPS.
Jose Gomez seems to have survived, .499 to .649 to .780 OPS the last three months, maybe just adjustment pains.
Haseley seems to have progressed just fine.

[zambonir]

I mostly agree with this. The major league rebuild is more or less on schedule (and you can buy a lot of that, as they have). The minor league rebuild is starting to bear fruit, and the worst of it still stems back to the previous regime (in any number of ways - drafting poorly, giving up picks, developing poorly, not starting the rebuild soon enough. Another big difference between the Phillies and the Astros is the Astros traded their stars when they were still stars).

I do think MacPhail and Klentak have been too slow to get things moving - treating the first year-plus as evaluative, staying too long with the players they did inherit. Had they been more aggressive in Year 1 things would look better now in Year 4; having been less aggressive in Year 1 they tried to force the issue in Year 4 and got burnt.

But the standings don't lie. This is a legit 85-86 win team that would be a legit 90 win team with fewer injuries. It is very hard to improve by 10 wins (even though last year's team did).

[Taudawg]

Are these perceptions or is there data to back up these concerns? Who exactly is underperforming? How do you explain players that are exceeding expectations? When I take a look at baseball-reference team stats for the minors, all our teams are about league average in age and competitive in batting average, OBP, team runs per game, ERA and so forth. 30,000 foot view I know.

If I remember correctly, Klentak wasn't around until after the 2015 draft took place. Randolph wasn't his pick. From the 1st round of the 2016 draft there are 8 players now in the majors In 2017, 4 from the first round are in the majors (one is from the Phillies). None from 2018 yet. 12 total 1st round picks in the last three drafts and one is making an impact in Philly. 30 teams x 3 = 90 picks. A lot of other teams are missing on picks as well.

I'm not here to defend the FO, but where is the evidence of a culture and philosophy problem? I don't like the personalities much...I try to not to let that flavor my judgement of how they are doing. This org was in a REAL bad spot when Andy and Matt took over 3 years ago and these things take time. Middleton should have forced a rebuild earlier. Blame him.

[julio]

This should perhaps go in the minor league transactions thread (and it will go in the list of transactions there), but...from the mlb.com Phillies Transactions page:

8/1/19: Philadelphia Phillies released RF Dylan Cozens.