2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[bigegypt0417]

that's valid but the point currently is the competition between the catchers isn't very close.

I think we will lose the trade long term and if he doesn't stay, it's even a bigger loss.

[bkeich]

The question of whether JT Realmuto is good or better than Alfaro (he is) is very different than the question of whether 2 years of Realmuto is more valuable than 5 years of Alfaro plus 6-7 years of Sixto Sanchez (look at his last 4 starts).

Long term these trades often go to wins for the team that receives the prospects, but the fact that this time it is a catching prospect that is marginal at best because of near-terminal pitch selection and a reliever that has arm injury written all over him (small frame, high velocity, high effort) I think we might be ok.

Realmuto is one of the best catchers in the game. Even just 2 years of this may end up being more (say 8 WAR).

But the other issue, which is easily forgotten, is that we were trying to convince Harper that we were not "rebuilding", but instead trying to win. That is a factor in this and every trade that was made this offseason.

[Taudawg]

We should have a long-term thread where we can mark the tape regarding who was on what side of a trade/signing/draft. Something to refer back to later.

Alfaro for 5 and Sixto for 6 years might eventually top JT's value over this year and next. However, if the Phillies win a World Series this year or next and JT has a lot to do with that, does it matter what the total WAR numbers add up to? What if the Marlins flounder for the next 6 years and waste away any value of having Alfaro and Sanchez?

[David_Criss]

What is up with Neris?

[allentown]

Both the Realmuto and the Segura trades were predicated upon this year's Phillies team being a little better than it has been, although we are still a very solid contender for a wild card -- that's a couple steps up from last season. If both teams have done their scouting homework excellently, then when a team trades prospects for a reasonably priced plus veteran, it will by nature lose the trade in the long-term -- it's goal was to borrow some long-term WAR to boost the present year WAR. The Phillies trades are structured, whether or not they are able to extend Realmuto/Segura at market rates, to allow the team to break through and advance in the playoffs this season or next. We can't trash the trades until we wait and see what happens next season: both in terms of wins and playoff success, but also in terms of whether or not we can extend Realmuto/Segura -- two guys we might have had a tough time corralling on the FA market otherwise.

Looking at the two trades as of today, knowing what we know now but couldn't know last off-season -- but the Phillies probably knew (primarily that Sixto would return to health, although whether he stays healthy into an MLB career remains an open question) says we probably have the losing end on the Realmuto trade, because Sixto was moved at sort-of-damaged-goods price and the Phillies performance is a tad below expectation at this point, with more holes than expected. As of today, I think that we lost the Segura trade. Santana is really banging the ball and Crawford has developed into as good a player as Segura, with every indication he will be better going forward. The Phillies traded out of 'necessity': they had, for whatever reason, seriously soured on Crawford and wanted Santana gone so that Hoskins could move to 1B -- and no, I don't think Santana should have been our 3B. Santana wasn't cheap and didn't really have a starting role on the Phillies, but that doesn't mean that he didn't have trade value. He already has 1 HR short of last season's total and has raised his OPS 160 points. Another prime example, along with Crawford, of hitters improving as soon as they leave our instruction.

[allentown]

However, if the Phillies win a World Series this year or next and JT has a lot to do with that, does it matter what the total WAR numbers add up to

Of course the Phillies winning the WS this year or not would make the trades a win -- that's exactly why you trade furture WAR for current WAR. I don't see us winning the WS this year. Next season? Actually, if we reached the WS next season and lost, then the trades would be a success.

[baseballoldie]

Is it really instruction? Or environment? I highly doubt a seasoned veteran like Santana needs instruction. Santana appears more comfortable in Cleveland perhaps not having to live up to the expectations that come with signing a new contract. Perhaps it's just being free of the challenges of playing in Negadelphia.

[zambonir]

I can't imagine Segura will be extended. He already came with just the right amount of years and control.

Not sure the team with prospects wins most of the trades either. We just remember when they do. And they have time on their side. If the Phillies had kept Pence they would have won the Astros trade. Did we win the Rolllins or Hamels trades? (I know, that just opens the door to lamenting who the Phillies acquired rather than the broader picture.)

[zambonir]

Morgan to IL. Yikes.

[Austinfan]

We didn't lose the Segura trade, because Santana was included to take his money off the books and then give it to Cutch, similar age and production, but Cutch was a far better fit than Santana - and highly durable, his injury was a fluke.

Build a solid core, resign Realmuto because a top catch is important if you want to build a good pitching staff, and he should have 5 years left as long as they don't overwork him. The league is catching up to Alfaro b/c he totally lacks plate discipline when selection is favoring pitchers who can deceive with offspeed stuff around the K-zone.

To me, the first use of money is to lockup the starting lineup, including extending Hoskins early at a higher rate rather than having to pay him to 35+ years old. Segura I'd let play out his deal if Stott looks ready in 2 years.
Realmuto, Hoskins, Kingery, Segura/Stott, Bohm, Cutch, Haseley, Moniak, Harper isn't a bad start for 2020-2025 or so.
Build a solid bench around them and you should be among the league leaders in run scored every season.

Then you look at spending on the pitching staff, but looking at the minor league system, I think Klentak has made it a priority to stockpile arms, including lots of RP candidates. Given the track record of veteran RPs, I'd be looking to go with youth as much as possible - when Arano goes down, it doesn't park $10-20M on IR.

I'm wary of giving ANY SP a deal longer than 3 years unless the cost is low enough (Nola) that you can eat it without distress. In today's game, a record of durability no longer predicts future health, in fact, being a top pitcher with high velocity who has a few 200 IP seasons almost seems like the kiss of death, it's the guys who learn to throw without velocity like Grienke and Kershaw who seem to last forever.

I'd rather trade for high priced veterans with only a couple years left on their deals and spread money around the Morton's and Smyly's each year and eat the money for the ones who don't work out (and give attractive bonuses for veterans to go to AAA ball and show they've recovered/fixed to the point of being able to pitch in the majors again). To me, pitching is basically about "safety in numbers," we've seen too many pitchers crash and burn.

[andyb]

There were other ways to deal with the Santana money. The Segura trade was much more about him for Crawford. And even if the motivation to trade Santana to get rid of the money was correct, there is also the reality of trading a 919 OPS bat.

We could have made the right decision in the offseason to trade Santana and still lose the trade badly if Santana has a great season. What the players do after the trade factors in the win/loss analysis of that trade. We'll probably end up losing the Hamels trade when all is said and done, though it was the right trade to make at the time.

[California_Dreamin]

I see where they are honoring the 2009 team this weekend. Is Cliff Lee coming, he always seemed almost as reclusive as Carlton did? That 2009 team was really good, better I believe, that the WC 2008 team.

Its funny how the teams that we often consider our favorite are not necessarily the teams that win titles. My favorite 3 Phillie teams ever were the 1964, 77 and 2009 teams, none of whom won championships. I still think the 77 and '09 teams were the two best Phillie teams I have witnessed in my lifetime.

[allentown]

The 2008 team was no better than the 3rd best teal of the past golden era. Even before we acquired Pence, the 2011 team was the strongest of that period. It is very possible that both the 2009 and 2010 teams were also stronger than 2008. The 2008 team stayed hot through the playoffs. The other teams did not.

[allentown]

There were other ways to deal with the Santana money. The Segura trade was much more about him for Crawford. And even if the motivation to trade Santana to get rid of the money was correct, there is also the reality of trading a 919 OPS bat.

We could have made the right decision in the offseason to trade Santana and still lose the trade badly if Santana has a great season. What the players do after the trade factors in the win/loss analysis of that trade. We'll probably end up losing the Hamels trade when all is said and done, though it was the right trade to make at the time.

The Santana money was not problem at all for the 2019 Phillies. If need be, they could have eaten some of it to get value back. The Phillies of 2019 absolutely have not been in a position where having another team 'take his money' is the positive that AF says it is. Yes, we wanted to exchange a 1B-only guy for an OF on the roster, but that doesn't diminish the value of Santana. Unless Segura steps it up next season or Crawford has a serious sophomore slump, Segura for Crawford plus Santana is a loss. As I admitted earlier, we must wait until the end of the 2020 post-season to accurately assess this trade.

[allentown]

Is it really instruction? Or environment?

The environment certainly could have played a part. Equally well, Santana could have cooperated with Phillies' coaches wishes that everyone put more loft in their swing. As with the stats guys performance last season on player positioning and the perceived value of playing so many guys out of position, I don't think last year's staff proved up to the task of increasing hitters' output by pushing loft.

[Austinfan]

Which is why, once you build a very good team, it's often a mistake to trade major prospect assets to get a little better, rather than using those prospects to cycle in and replace expensive veterans to keep the window of opportunity open a few more years. The longer you stay competitive, the more opportunities to "get lucky."

The "luck" factor is bigger in baseball and ice hockey than the NBA. That is, once you're in the playoffs, if you're a good team, you have a legitimate shot of beating better teams.

Problem for the Phillies right now is they haven't rebuilt to the point of being a "good team," one that you can write in 90+ wins every year.

[Taudawg]

If we blame Santana's poor 2018 on instruction and/or environment, then it makes sense to credit those same things for Kingery's improvement does it not? Or maybe Santana just had a down year. What he's doing this year, he has done before.

Phillies hitting instructors are not wrecking players. I'm not saying they are helping either. Unless someone has some data that organizationally they have taken a step backward, this is just perception. It's easy to identify individual players underperforming and use those as example of institutional failure. Doesn't make it true though.

[Lucky_Beagle]

I am pretty sure somewhere I read Lee is not part of the group coming back this weekend. I do not know which article I saw it in now.

[kmc1019]

Adam Morgan to the DL with the ominous "flexor strain" injury, which has truly been the curse of the bullpen this year.

[bigegypt0417]

We didn't lose the Segura trade, because Santana was included to take his money off the books and then give it to Cutch, similar age and production, but Cutch was a far better fit than Santana - and highly durable, his injury was a fluke.

Santana is having his best season in a long time...