2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[zambonir]

Truly unbelievable - though not really I guess - about Ramos.

No question Gabe has been a disappointment. Only just saw this too.

Gabe Kapler: ‘I’m not f-ing Dallas Green and I never will be’

He was supposed to be a combination of Charlie Manuel (player's manager, upbeat) and Joe Maddon (unconventional, analytics) and while I do think it's mostly the injuries, and the manager doesn't really have that big an effect on individual player performance, you can't say the team chemistry or the analytics are helping the team play above its talent level.

[julio]

Truly unbelievable - though not really I guess - about Ramos.

No question Gabe has been a disappointment. Only just saw this too.

Gabe Kapler: ‘I’m not f-ing Dallas Green and I never will be’

The sad thing here, to me, is that fans want Kapler to carry on the way Green carried on, forty years ago... Well, some of the fans who were actually following the Phillies forty years ago, and presumably some fans who weren't, but who think they know about Green because of the "myth and legend."

But the sad thing - these fans believe that "going off" on the team would be productive. You have to wonder how those fans treat their spouses, significant others, children, etc. Do they scream and rant at them? Do they think that verbal abuse "works" with them?

[Austinfan]

Hey I remember Ray Rhodes.

That stuff does work, but it has a short shelf life, should be saved for extremes (of course after the night before, a smart manager might have gone strategically ballistic).

[bkox]

Corey Seidman (CSeidmanNBCS)

[andyb]

Hopefully this is what Williams needs to get back on track. No pressure for a couple of weeks and coming off a period where he was playing regularly and playing well.

I also fear that this could be a long absence for Bruce. Oblique injuries generally don't heal in 2 weeks for players over 30.

[bkeich]

The Bruce injury looked like it might be bad. Any muscle pull in the core is often much longer than expected, it just doesn’t heal fast because you constant restrain it.

Hope not, we really need Bruce, Williams gets exposed every time he does more than PH and if he just crushes AAA pitching he has value. When he proves that he isn’t much of a ML player his value goes down.

[bkox]

Williams gets exposed every time he does more than PH and if he just crushes AAA pitching he has value. When he proves that he isn’t much of a ML player his value goes down.

811 OPS in 2017.. all but 4 games he was a starter,

2018 his starter OPS was .725 and he did excel as a bench player. But interestingly his bench player BaBIP was 90 points higher.

The main issue with Williams is his splits. OPS vs Lefties is over 100 points less,

For his career, Bruce has a 102 point split. But his first 2 seasons it was well over 200 points.

[andyb]

I think the upside of Williams playing well for a few weeks is more important than the downside of him not playing well. The AAA performance really does not prove anything to other teams unless backed up by more major league performance. And there is just as much chance of a slump at the AAA level. If Williams ended up the AAA season with a 780 OPS he'd have zero value.

Williams could easily boost his trade value with a few good weeks. There is still not a great fit for the future of course, but that is because Bruce is more suited to being a bench player next year if Cutch comes back and is a full time player again.

[bkox]

Matt Breen (matt_breen)

Matt Breen (matt_breen)

[julio]

I don't know - a three game suspension could get Neris the rest that Kapler will never otherwise allow. This one could well have a silver lining.

[andyb]

But are we ready to see JD Hammer or Ranger Suarez close out a game?

[Lucky_Beagle]

But are we ready to see JD Hammer or Ranger Suarez close out a game?

could it be any worse than the post All-star break Neris?

[bkox]

I don't know - a three game suspension could get Neris the rest that Kapler will never otherwise allow. This one could well have a silver lining.

From June 28th through July 6th, Neris appeared in just 2 games. From May 2nd to May 15th, Neris appeared in Just 2 games. From June 16th to June 24th, Neris appeared in just 1 game.

9 separate times this year Neris has had 3 or more days rest between appearances. 10 if you include the ASB.

Neris ranks about 50th in appearances in MLB in 2019, 54th in relief innings pitched and 45th in pitches thrown.

[Austinfan]

And the splitter doesn't put as much stress on his arm as FBs.
Though the mental rest might be more important after a bad post AS start.

I don't mind seeing Hammer or Morgan or Suarez get tested, you have to find out sometime whether they can handle pressure. The bright side of this season is if Arano and SD can make it back next year, they're gonna have an awfully young, deep bullpen, with depth through AAA
(bunch of guys being groomed for next season, and more at Reading making a case to move up) -
Lehigh: Davis, Dohy, Leftwich, McGarry [don't let the stats fool you, look at their last ten games or so]
Reading: Hernandez, Brown, Singer, Russ, Dyer
As bad as this season has been for the pen, next year they should be better, deeper and a lot cheaper.

[zambonir]

Neris should probably appeal in case he actually gets the sentence reduced, and so he can face the Dodgers. He pitched just fine the other night, sandwiched in between two tough ones. If there's something to it - mechanical, physical, mental - time off isn't automatically an answer (unless he's hurt).

[andyb]

Splitters are supposed to put more stress on arms than fastballs.

[schillingfan]

Splitters are supposed to more stress on arms than fastballs.

Yeah. Was it Roger Craig, the Giants pitching coach who introduced them? Curt Schilling said it put a lot of stress and he had two arm surgeries. I think that’s why they aren’t thrown as much and people use more change-ups,and other pitches that break out of the strike zone. Splitter do have the biggest sudden drop.

[Austinfan]

Sliders were supposed to as well, but the recent studies suggest it's high velocity FBs that put the most stress on a pitcher's arm. Mich makes sense, as these guys throw harder and harder, the human arm just isn't designed to move that fast.

[zambonir]

yeah, that was my understanding, the conventional wisdom has always been that splits and breaking balls were the worst but there wasn't necessarily a ton of proof, and force/velocity is worst of all.

[phillychuck]

Sliders were supposed to as well, but the recent studies suggest it's high velocity FBs that put the most stress on a pitcher's arm. Mich makes sense, as these guys throw harder and harder, the human arm just isn't designed to move that fast.

Links to studies? I'd like to read them.