2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[flyers19rw]

There was an interesting discussion in today’s tv broadcast between Howard and Schmidt on the hitting of several of the Phillies. Both guys felt that some of the hitters were dipping their shoulders in order to create launch angles and how that made then susceptible to high fastballs. They both felt that in CBP, the best route to hitting was to square up on pitches and drive the ball. It’s not that hard to get the ball out of the park. Thoughts?

[allentown]

They both felt that in CBP, the best route to hitting was to square up on pitches and drive the ball. It’s not that hard to get the ball out of the park. Thoughts?

The Phillies have been preaching/teaching changed swings to promote loft. Looking at our hitting as a team, our HRs in particular, and the output of each hitter... I think the new approach has harmed the offense. It certainly hasn't turned us into a high HR club. If the swing creates a hole in the swing and a vulnerability, I'd expect that to render our guys more subject to slumps. As with last season's 'anyone can play anywhere' approach and ineffective shift positioning, I think we have over-interpreted what the statistics are trying to tell us and rushed into major changes whole hog, without enough consideration or really understanding the nuances of what is changing and how it will impact our existing players who learned and prospered with a different approach to hitting.

[Lucky_Beagle]

Who was going to change their swing, Kingery, Franco, knapp, Herrera, williams, and other minor leaguers?
You don't bring in Harper, Realmuto, and Cutch and try to change their swing IMO. I wouldn't think you would be messing with Hoskins either.

[mdougherty12]

Quinn needs time in AAA because they no longer have him hitting LH, but he has limited experience as a RH against RH pitching.

IIRC, Quinn is out of options. I also think he's already given up on the no switch-hitting thing.

[Patchmk88]

Both guys felt that some of the hitters were dipping their shoulders in order to create launch angles and how that made then susceptible to high fastballs. They both felt that in CBP, the best route to hitting was to square up on pitches and drive the ball. It’s not that hard to get the ball out of the park. Thoughts?

I mentioned this in the game thread the other day. I have noticed way to many time this year where we hit a ball very well but it travels more up than it does straight. The results are in the pudding. We are one of the worst HR teams in the league.

[Austinfan]

I think it's easy to overthink. RC+
Realmuto 111, 117, 126, 101 - but he's on a ten game hitting streak.
Hoskins 159, 129, 142
Harper, 111, 135, 155, 115
Segura 126, 113, 111, 98 [BABIP .291, career .317]
Hernandez 107, 112, 100, 98 [BB% 6.2, career 10.1]
Franco 92, 76, 105, 81 [BABIP .227, career .258]

Other than Realmuto, I don't see any "coaching" impact.
Segura and Franco have BABIP well below their career average.

I think Harper's problem is Harper, his swing is too long b/c he's in love with the 450 foot HR, like a pitcher in love with his FB, he's probably uncoachable until he accepts that 380 foot HRs count as much, shortens his stroke, keeps his hands back and uses the whole field.

Interesting listening to Howard admit that the problem with the achilles was him trying to compensate for a loss of power by trying to pull everything when his success came from aiming at the sign in left center field. He was trapped by his identity as a power hitter and refused to adjust. I see the same issue with Harper.

[allentown]

Wow! This is really straining the data to prove a point. What does a 10-game hitting streak have to do with justifying Realmuto's 25 point drop in RC+? If anything, it says this is an opportunistic (I realize random, since he is just one of 6 players you mention) time when his RC+ is at his highest point in weeks. A 40-point drop for Harper -- that's huge. Yes, one might say 2018 was a near-term outlier, but this years RC+ is also 20 points shy of 2017. Segura is off 13 points and you can't just say RISP, since RISP is partly a function of how hard you hit the ball, how few popups you have, and how many line drives. Hernandez basically flat, but off significant compared to 2017 -- I can buy age for this one. Franco is off 24 RC+ points. Again, I don't buy the RISP argument. It's governed as much by how you hit the ball as by pure luck. As stated above, more popups and high flies short of the fence observed anecdotally for the team as a whole. So... every player you list has a decline in RC+, some of them very drastic declines. And yet, you see no possible impact of coaching? This seems a huge stretch and explaining away what you see, but don't want to see.

[Austinfan]

Segura was trending down before he came here.
Franco has bounced up and down, and his struggles come from trying to pull everything, not swing angle.
Harper has been up and down his career, and I think it's his long swing, not launch angle, compare his mechanics with Hoskins.

There may be some issue with launch angles, except the team didn't suddenly just discover this.
Cutch was hitting with far more power, maybe he's just smarter and adjusted faster? Or just off to a fast start?

I just don't think there's enough information to assume a new approach has made a big difference, positive or negative.
For one thing, we don't know if these players are making big adjustments, little tweaks or just doing it their way.

Now the minors are a different matter, there you are reworking mechanics and their approach in any case, if the team installed a bunch of new coaches and a new approach, you'd expect a lot of slow starts as kids adjusted.

[bkeich]

I think it's easy to overthink. RC+
Realmuto 111, 117, 126, 101 - but he's on a ten game hitting streak.
Hoskins 159, 129, 142
Harper, 111, 135, 155, 115
Segura 126, 113, 111, 98 [BABIP .291, career .317]
Hernandez 107, 112, 100, 98 [BB% 6.2, career 10.1]
Franco 92, 76, 105, 81 [BABIP .227, career .258]

Other than Realmuto, I don't see any "coaching" impact.

It is reasonable if everyone is near their career norms to say that there is no coaching impact. However, if everyone is at the low end of their norms or below them, then I would argue there is an impact. The odds of 5 players all being unlucky or just at the bottom of their expected results is minimal. Only Hoskins is about where you would expect, everyone else is having a bad season, a few the worst season they have ever had.

If it is 1-2 people it is bad luck, if it is 5 it is systematic.

Kapler is clearly doing better than he was last year, he really hasnt made too many obvious, clueless mistakes in game as he did a few times last year. But the issue is he is LEARNING to be a manager on the job, and when we were a rebuilding team that is exactly who we would want. We arent rebuilding anymore. We cashed in our rebuild to try and win now by selling our prospects and picking up players either in their prime (Segura, Realmuto) or signing FAs that were a little past their prime (McCutcheon) (I would call signing Harper as part of the rebuild). I fear that Kapler, while he seems to have stopped making silly mistakes, isnt really adding anything as a manager either, there are just too many players having "bad" seasons to not have it be an indictment of the manager/coaching.

[Dirk41]

The sheer ineptitude in drafting and stocking the minors is amazing. Building stars from within is the most solid plan. All contenders do it. Even the Yankees.

Surely, hindsight is 20/20, but you could pull up threads on this very board that call for the drafting of players who have more star power in their left leg than the entire Fightins or Iron Pigs roster.

[bkox]

Matt Breen (matt_breen)

[phillychuck]

This is overly critical of the Phils drafting and current minor league prospects. Fightins roster is pretty stocked with high-upside players, and Iron Pigs are a typical AAA team with lots of AAAA guys, and they are depleted by the injury replacements having to go to Philly.

[Austinfan]

Clearwater and Reading are fine, though Lakewood is disturbing.
I don't care about rookie teams, at that level you don't know what you have good or bad.
A ball is when you start seriously weeding out your prospects.

However, I think this season I'm more interested in how minor leaguers finish out the year, I think there were a lot of coaching changes in the off season, and we'll see which players adjust to the new emphasis in instruction.

[EDmuch]

Instruction like how to cover first base on a bunt?

[phillychuck]

Lakewood is a team of extremely young prospects that have been pushed into full-season ball. Most 19-year-olds and younger struggle in the Sally League. I'm OK with them, too. Farm system, to me, is average or a little bit above right now. Not great, but at least average.

[EDmuch]

What I found particularly distasteful about last nite's game is how we looked like a bad Little League team. that 4th inning showed the dodger's using "small ball" against Gabe and his computer generated shifts. It was embarrassing to Hernandez fail to cover first on a bunt attempt due to where Gabe's shift placed him. And then the double steal !!!!! It really looked like bad Little League ball. Gabe and his cohorts seemed to be playing computer chess while the Dodgers were playing baseball. That one inning will stand out in my mind for the rest of the season.

[andyb]

On that bunt attempt I would have had Hoskins not charge. They just had the wrong play on if they were going to be in the shift. The batter would not know that all he had to do was get it by the pitcher, so it is not like they would leave themselves vulnerable to the push bunt any more than they were with Hernandez out of position.

I really feel we do shifts based on batted ball data and fail to consider enough what we would do with the ball with runners on base. The Dodgers seem to make it look easy so I am guessing it is a combination of the schemes and the players being trained better on what to do with the ball.

[flyers19rw]

One of the problems with the defense that we saw last year was the shifting that was putting fielders in places where they had difficulty making plays. Last nights’s fourth inning was reminiscent of that. It makes the players look bad. My thought still is that the roster is quality but not being used in the best way.

[bkox]

Matt Breen (matt_breen)

Matt Gelb (MattGelb)

[BostonRoss]

It is difficult to really know what kind of effect the manager is having on the team's play. Aside from the occasional strategy gaffe, most in game decisions are not that important in the long run. We just notice them more when they go wrong, but sometimes the "correct" move wouldn't work either.

What I like to look at is whether the manager is getting the most out of his players. I can't think of one position player who has performed better under Kapler than his previous performance. A few are close, but not one is better, and several are worse. And they are mostly young and should be improving.

There are a few pitchers you could say have been better (Nola, Eflin, maybe Morgan), but it's hard to credit Kapler much for putting the starters out there every five days when they're healthy.

I think Kapler should finish out the year, but if there is no further improvement, I would be fine seeing if we could do better.