2019 Phillies Season Discussion

BostonRoss 2019-07-05 22:37:21 UTC #904

This got me thinking since a .850-.900 OPS player is pretty good, even if it's lower outside his prime. I wasn't sure whether that was what the record showed, though.

So I decided to search for players who are in that range this season and are age 26-28. I found ten of them:

[Mod's note: Extraneous stuff cleaned up. -- J]

Nick Williams has a career major league .746 OPS in 877 PA. His minor league OPS is .820, and his AA OPS (including this season) is .793.

The above list is a pretty good bunch of players. All but three were much better in the minors than Williams, though. But Sanchez, Mancini, and Kepler were comparable in the minors. Sanchez, though, has way outperformed his minor league stats, something I think is a rarity, and I don't think it's reasonable to expect Williams to become Sanchez offensively. But he could become a Kepler (who wasn't very good before this season although he walked a decent amount) or a Mancini. Kepler, though, can actually play the outfield well and is more valuable than Williams would be at the same offensive production level. Mancini isn't good defensively, though.

I would say that if and when the Phillies give up on 2019, it does make sense to give Williams another shot, probably in LF. But I wouldn't play him now, because he is simply a negative WAR player, and if you are below replacement level, you get replaced. I do think the odds are long that he becomes a star, and it isn't really worth going out of their way to produce the next Trey Mancini. But if the Phillies are out of it, giving Williams a chance seems like a decent idea.

bkox 2019-07-05 22:50:59 UTC #905

If they were the old style balls used before this season, this might have been a good trade and the one we needed to improve our pitching staff.

andyb 2019-07-05 23:19:57 UTC #906

Not sure I would say all but three were much better than Williams in the minors if age is considered. He also does not need to be 850-900 OPS to be a decent player, so you set the bar a bit higher than the expectations of being better than Jay Bruce or Maikel Franco or Roman Quinn or Sean Rodriguez is really my metric.

Williams does not move the bar now. But he is also an asset wasted by this organization and GM. Should have traded him when they got Harper in hindsight.

zambonir 2019-07-05 23:53:53 UTC #907

They definitely should have traded him when they got Harper. But they mistakenly thought the small sample of his PH batting average and part-time play last year (when he forced his way into the line-up, with Altherr's help) meant he'd be good off the bench this year. Right now, if the Phillies are still trying to win, I don't see that he's actually better than Rodriguez/Miller in that role (because of the lack of defense/versatility) or better than Bruce in LF, or better than Quinn in CF. He might be better than Franco, so sure, if you just traded or waived him and made Kingery the 3B Williams is not only the best candidate to fill that bench spot but the only one left on the 40 of note.

Things are pretty grim! Every move they've made has actually been bad. Santana was a bust both performance-wise and positionally; Arrieta has been adequate. But they weren't able to lead the team to a .500 record.

Now, Segura may be better than Crawford and Cutch/Harper better than Williams/Altherr (and Santana, never mind what he's doing in Cleveland) and Realmuto is better than Alfaro but those were all about improving in the short-term over the long term and it's not happening, even if pitching might be the real reason. In the long-term all the guys they got rid of might be better. But what would they even do with Williams in the bigger picture? Trade McCutchen? Move him to CF? This team needs a CF more than a second-string or platoon LF, both right now and next year (I think it's safe to say Herrera will be bought out, buried or traded now).

BostonRoss 2019-07-06 15:59:46 UTC #908

I'm still trying to figure out this response, which seems bizarre to me. You made a statement that Williams might be an .850-.900 OPS player in his prime. I decided to do some light research into what kind of player that might be, and whether their minor league statistics might be similar to Williams'. I found some evidence to support that you might be right, that there are a few players who had similar minor league statistics to Williams who achieved that OPS level.

Somehow you turned that around into my setting the bar for Williams to be a "decent player." I did no such thing. I took your own unsupported statement that Williams might achieve that level, and actually found some support for it. It may be unlikely that Williams becomes that good, but you didn't assert that it was likely, and I didn't claim that you did.

Then you brought age into the mix, which doesn't change anything I said. Typically, these players, like Williams, reached AAA at age 22 and were MLB rookies at 23. Yes, Mancini was older, but so were Chapman and Vogelbach. Of course the best of them were younger (Machado, Baez).

I just wanted to see if your original statement made sense. It does. But your last response to me does not.

andyb 2019-07-06 18:30:28 UTC #909

The additional point is that Williams does not need to be an 850-900 OPS player to help the team. Lowering your bar to 800 would probably bring in a whole host of players who Williams looks pretty good against. It was not really a criticism of your post, just noting that the value of Williams in context to this club (and its weak bench and the likelihood that Bruce regresses) is potentially significant if the club gave him a chance. His defense needs to improve some, but I also think he has the tools for that to happen to get him close to average.

Austinfan 2019-07-06 18:52:06 UTC #910

Williams must be > .800 OPS to have value because he's a negative defensive player, and because he's really only a LF, on a team with a better hitting LF (Bruce) and a better all around player returning next year (Cutch) and a better LH OF prospect in Haseley, and another in two years in Moniak.

In other words, the only reason to play him is to increase his trade value in the offseason.

zambonir 2019-07-06 19:32:35 UTC #911

At the end of the day Williams is not better than Bruce now and he is less well-suited to the bench than Bruce next year. I doubt Williams wants to be on the bench either. The only scenario where he really fits is if the Phillies drop out (and maybe trade Bruce) or there is reason to think Cutch will be unavailable for a few months. Sadly it is also possible Cutch won't be better than Williams next year but that is not a choice the team would make (especially given Cutch's skill set and leadership.)

bkox 2019-07-07 06:03:49 UTC #912

julio 2019-07-07 12:32:02 UTC #913

andyb 2019-07-07 12:53:34 UTC #914

Sounds like an extra starter is the top priority for any deadline deals. Not sure mixing and matching openers through August if Arreita continues to be ineffective is an adequate solution.

bkeich 2019-07-07 13:25:04 UTC #915

Good news is Arrieta should be easy to replace as he has been awful.

If they are serious about making the playoffs Klentak needs to get to work. The list of needs is growing, CF, 3B, Starter (or 2), Reliever (2-3).

Patchmk88 2019-07-07 14:55:54 UTC #916

So it sounds like Arrieta may have known that he has been injured for a while. Not sure everything ticks right in that guy’s brain.

flyers19rw 2019-07-07 15:34:27 UTC #917

There are too many holes in the roster for this season. Play it out with what we have and see what happens. Give Hasely a shot at CF. Move Cesar in a trade and put Kingery at 2B. Work with the young pitchers some more to figure out if they can cut it as starters. We’re three seasons in on VV, Eflin, Pivetta and Eichoff. If they can’t cut it then move them out. Talk with Bruce to see if he wants to stay here or move on knowing that McCutcheon is the LF next year. It’s time to be sellers, not buyers. Trading away Hasely, Moniak or Bohm to obtain the usual fill in SP that teams obtain at this time of the season is just selling too low.
It’s also time to do a serious evaluation of the manager and his staff. If they’re not the answer, make changes there as well. Bringing in a different manager and a new staff would allow them to work with the players to iron out things now instead of waiting until next March. I’m in the camp that CD is. Kapler continues to make questionable decisions with the entire pitching staff. Mallee’s launch angle approach to hitting is doing more damage than good. Was Young worth keeping and allowing Kranitz to leave? I don’t see much evidence to support that decision.
It could be that several managers in the NL East are shown the door as well as Madden in Chicago. There are three ex managers with good resumes out there who could be hired by the Phillies-Scoscia, Girardi and Showalter. Better to move fast and snap up one of them than to dilly dally around until they’re off of the market and then decide to relieve Kapler. This club is better than what it’s been showing. It’s performance does not meet the sum of its parts even with the injuries and the Herrera incident.

Austinfan 2019-07-07 15:43:09 UTC #918

I'm not sure the team is better than they've shown.
I warned that Harper or Machado wasn't enough to put this team over the top, that they needed the young players to step up.

The good news is they're developing a slew of young RPs and will gain a lot of money when they start shedding the veteran RPs the next couple years, and only one season left with Arrieta.

I would use this season to audition young players, get them experience, and otherwise stay pat. They traded two top prospects and paid a lot of money to Harper, you can only go to that well so often, and this isn't 2010/2011, striving for a "last hurrah." This team still needs some serious rebuilding, but they have some major pieces coming up the next few years - think in terms of the mid-2000s. Bohm, Stott, Haseley, Moniak,and hopefully a couple SPs will emerge.

andyb 2019-07-07 15:58:19 UTC #919

Where is this slew of good young relievers we are supposedly developing? Every team has a few young relievers who do OK in small sample sizes (like Hammer), but outside of Neris I am not sure we have any young relievers that project to be better than average. It is not a weak spot, but they sure are not good enough to have confidence going forward that this will be a decent bullpen. Tommy Hunter seems the best arm we have now and that could because he is fresh and the rest of the team is dragging. Morgan, Hammer, Garcia, Rios, Ramos, and Arano were not that great this year. Who knows what we'll get out of Seranthony also in the second half.

The bullpen is not the top priority at the deadline, but it sure is not a strength. The reality is we have multiple problems and getting Robertson back might be the best bullpen move we can make anyway.

California_Dreamin 2019-07-07 16:43:23 UTC #920

andyb...I will tell you where they are. They are on that horrible highway that connects Lehigh Valley to Philadelphia and back. I can only imagine the mental shattered dreams that are lying somewhere on that highway. I find it absolutely disgusting what the Phillies have done to the slew of youngsters....let me count the guys, Ramos, Rios, Davis, Garcia, Arano, Suarez, DelosSantos and my favorite, Irvin.

I refuse to believe that all of these youngsters, some of whom were highly touted, are that bad, just don't believe it. I mean, how would you feel if you just started a job and were constantly being told to "go home for a few days to work on your job skills. But don't worry, we will bring you back at some point." You would likely become a complete mental case, wondering if the next misplaced fastball was going to land you in the minors.

I hate it, I hate it, I hate it. Someday one of these pitchers is going to speak out about how mentally and physically abused they have been. My druthers...pick a doggone bullpen and tell them you are going to sink or swim with them and stop worrying that the next bad outing will get you exiled back to Lehigh Valley purgatory.

I find it so ironic. Gene Mauch was severely criticized for his handling of a pitching staff yet it was Mauch who developed Art Mahaffey, Chris Short, Dennis Bennett, Ray Culp, Dallas Green, Jack Baldschun, Gary Wagner and revitalized Cal Mclish, Ed Roebuck, Johnny Klippstein and made a Hall of Famer out of Jim Bunning. Everyone of those youngsters struggled when they first came up, especially Bennett and Short. But Mauch stayed with them and they eventually got it turned around because they had talent.

I am tired of reading about how the Phils love the stuff of Ramos and DelosSantos. If the stuff is so good, my gosh, let them breathe for a bit and get their feet wet.

I think Kapler is an unmitigated disaster and the sooner they get a real major league manager the sooner this team will begin playing to their potential.

bkox 2019-07-07 17:31:17 UTC #921

andyb 2019-07-07 18:46:15 UTC #922

I totally get that the back and forth from LHV can get a player down, especially if they have no set role. The other side of the coin is that this roster usage is probably needed with the evolution of relief pitchers pitching more innings.

The bigger problem I see is that the team may not be doing the best job of preparing the young arms for this usage. I suspect there is good communication about a player's role (i.e. you are going up and down all year because we need you to). I just am not sure that they are doing a good job of preparing pitchers for this role in terms of usage. I do hope pitching evolves to have more arms ready to pitch 2 innings less frequently - if starters continue to pitch fewer innings and the number of pitchers on a roster is frozen at 13.

De Los Santos is the one that I think could be a 2-inning weapon out of the bullpen. Would love to see him prepare for that role at LHV.

julio 2019-07-07 20:19:13 UTC #923

"Horrible highway"? Interstate 476 (the NE Extension of the PA Turnpike, and the Blue Route)? This coming from somebody who lives in southern California, home of I-5, and all its demon-spawn?

Much of the route between Allentown and Mid-County (E-W Turnpike, Blue Route terminus) has been widened. Most of it is posted 70 mph, and traffic tends to move faster than that (faster than on the E-W Turnpike between Valley Forge and the Delaware River). As expressways go, it's pretty good.

My guess, CD, is that you're remembering the part of the NE Extension that's north of Allentown (which used to be relevant to AAA players when the Phils' farm was in Moosic (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre). That used to have a two-lane (one each way) tunnel through Blue Mountain that caused huge backups on weekends - but that was long ago corrected (second tunnel driven), and it's not between Lehigh Valley and Philly anyway.

I'm up and down that road several times each summer (Mid-County to Wilkes-Barre and back). It's really not remotely challenging any more (since the second tunnel opened). We'll be going down that way tomorrow, as a matter of fact!

Take your point about the pitching, though.