2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[zambonir]

It's always an easy bet that the line-up in two years won't be all internal guys. Plus Cutch is still signed for 2021 (he could be in bench role by then) and so is Herrera for now. Truth is any one of the four #1 draft picks listed could be traded next season too, depending how things play out.

Realmuto will be re-signed. If not he might not even be our catcher next August.

[zambonir]

Glass half-full: if the season ended today the Phillies would host a wild card playoff game.

Glass half-empty:

Watch your back, Phillies, 3rd place in NL East could be just a day away

Nats are on a 25-10 tear. Though, another glass half-full perspective - there is no reason why the Phillies couldn't go on a similar run if the reinforcements arrive. No 2007-like miracles required yet.

[bkox]

Phillies start the second half with 3 vs Washington and 4 vs Dodgers (best record in baseball). Which means there is a very good chance they fall below .500 by July 18th.

But then, the schedule should be in their favor for over a month and a half. From July 19th Through Sept 8th, the Phillies play 45 games. Only 8 of those are against teams currently .500 or better. (3x Braves, 3x Cubs, 2x Boston)

If they can turn it around during that time and play their way back into the race. Sept 9th starts the gauntlet with 7 versus the Braves, 2 versus Boston, 3 versus Cleveland, and 5 versus Washington including a DH.

My personal opinion.. we finish well outside the playoffs and 4-5 games under .500.

If things look bleak at the at the end of July, I would look to move Bruce and finally give Williams 2 months to prove he can be an every day player. I would also look to see if Cesar has any interest so Kingery can move there next year when Cutch is back

[zambonir]

Nats and Dodgers both at home so it will be a pretty good litmus test. If they completely tank (1-6 or 2-5) there won't be much runway left, even with the softer schedule. But they could still go 4-3 (or who knows, better).

First though, can the Mets cure what ails them again?

[HopeSpringsEternal]

First though, can the Mets cure what ails them again?

Starting off against deGrom (Friday) and Syndergaard (Saturday) - I think the Mets series will be a pretty big challenge for the Phillies.

[David_Criss]

What reinforcements are even out there to come and help?
Eickhoff, Siranthony, Neshek, Nicasio, Robertson who knows when or if any of these guys will pitch in 2019 and it isn't like any of them was an all star candidate to begin with.
Hererra he could be the bat or a bat.

Williams has done quite well at AAA.

It will be interesting to see what happens these next couple of weeks. If the team stumbles to third place and/or below .500 then we can anticipate a Bruce or Hernandez trade. But don't expect to get much back. Then you let Williams and Heissey/Quinn play the last couple of months as an audition for 2020. Heck let Walding play a little third and Grullon replace Knapp.

If they do well, then be prepared for the crazy trade rumors.

I just don't see a lot of reinforcements available internally or externally.

[zambonir]

Eickhoff, Siranthony, Neshek, Nicasio, Robertson who knows when or if any of these guys will pitch in 2019 and it isn't like any of them was an all star candidate to begin with.

All four of those relievers are significant. The first three are in fact the reinforcements, with a history of pitching at an all-star level (for relievers). But you're right - if they can't help, the team is done. You can't go out and acquire three new relievers who are good enough to replace what Seranthony, Neshek and Robertson were supposed to do, nor should you (at any kind of price, and not when they need a SP more).

Bat-wise I think you still have to pretend Herrera is not here (which he isn't) and Franco can't play (which he mostly can't) and get at least one guy for either 3B or OF.

I don't know that they will rush to be sellers. Hernandez is probably worth more in the off-season (more buyers). Bruce is a cheap and valuable bench bat signed for next season. Williams still really doesn't have a future here. You'd try to trade some of the relievers but I'm not sure they will be far enough out of the wild card race, and it's not like Hunter, Nicasio and Neshek (who actually has an option) have that much value.

If you really want to wave the white flag, trade Arrieta.

[andyb]

No need to even think about the white flag now (though Neris might be the most interesting sell-high trade item they have if they did that).

I think they need to get Williams back and play him. If that means a bad CF with Quinn filling in late so be it. We need players on the team that can actually hit and if we do not have Herrera, he is the easiest move they can make to inject some urgency into the offense.

I am guessing the wild card is not worth trading much for. So that would mean we should expect small moves towards the deadline and hope the injured relievers come back to some degree.

[zambonir]

I don't think the Phillies really want Williams back up, let alone in CF. And while he's certainly showing a lot in AAA he wasn't showing any more than Quinn when he was actuallly up. If anything he's our easiest trade chip, and it's more likely his value goes down than up if he has two bad weeks in MLB.

Hard to even get a read on what the trade market is now. People thought it would start early but it hasn't. If anything it might be the biggest, craziest last day ever. If the deadline was today I believe the Phillies would still be aggressive. A starting pitcher, a bat (CF or 3B), one reliever. They just might be shopping at TJ Maxx not Nieman's.

I wouldn't move Neris, that would just open them up to signing another Robertston/Hunter/Neshek type last year. But I take your point.

[Lucky_Beagle]

For a back up catcher who may end starting at the most 30 games Knapp sure takes a lot of heat here. How many extra games this year would a different back up catcher help the team win?

[zambonir]

Maybe 1/4 of a game?

Plus you still have to give Knapp credit for his work with Eflin.

Not that there is anything wrong with a marginal upgrade, but we can't assume the AAA guys actually would be.

[andyb]

I don't think the Phillies really want Williams back up, let alone in CF. And while he's certainly showing a lot in AAA he wasn't showing any more than Quinn when he was actuallly up. If anything he's our easiest trade chip, and it's more likely his value goes down than up if he has two bad weeks in MLB.

Pretty cynical there to just think that a 25-year-old bat that could easily project to an 800 OPS now is reduced to a 2-week challenge to produce. One could argue that he has been mishandled more than any player on the roster currently. You don't just throw away future assets for nothing when they are young. That was part of the problem with the Segura trade. It was a fair trade, even a good one value-wise. There were just other ways to move pieces around a chessboard that could have left us with a 24-year-old SS that was as good as Segura today, and another $10 million or so of salary maneuverability.

Frankly we might have been better off making Carlos Santana the 3B (967 OPS, 3.2 WAR).

Every 25-year-old asset we waste comes back to haunt us. I am the first to argue to use money to solve problems instead of trading prospects. Sometimes you need to play the young talent though. This team is not hitting well enough to ignore a guy who could be the 4th or 5th best hitter in most lineups.

[Austinfan]

Sometimes you have to bite the bullet and let things play out, unless of course, you can make another "Bruce" deal.

The problem with Williams isn't that he can't hit, it's that he can't field well enough to play anywhere else than LF, and with Bruce, Miller, and Cutch back next year, that's not exactly a priority. Hopefully we can turn him into a young asset at another position.

[bkox]

Interesting that everyone is talking about hitting and relievers. IMO its the starting pitching that is the biggest issue.

Since last year's ASB, Arrieta has a 4.67 ERA and looks a shell of his former self.
Eflin's ERA has gone up almost a full run over his last 3 starts.
Velsaquez and Pivetta seem to have one good to brilliant game for every 5 mediocre or disastrous games.

The entire staff is second to last in the NL in K/9. We are 28th in the ML in HR/9 and worst in the NL. Even worse than Colorado.

I think the offense can rebound. I dont see how we fix the pitching to make a wild card run.

[Austinfan]

I think the pitchers have to heal themselves, it's not like they don't have the raw talent to turn their seasons around, it's more a matter of location, which may simply require some refinement of mechanics and mental approach. We've seen that with Nola the last few starts.

[zambonir]

Williams only has modest potential IMO, he has yet to show he can be an .800 OPS guy. Had he been the starting LF this season we might have just as easily seen the same player or worse, not a breakthrough. Like Franco, .750 doesn't cut it given his poor defense. Assuming Kingery is the 3B Williams would still be just the 8th-best hitter in this line-up and even then you still might prefer Quinn's meager bat in CF. Or Herrera.

The Crawford/Segura comparison is fair, but they've already made that move too (i.e., acquired McCutchen, Harper, and now Bruce). The only way they mishandled him is it was bad for him and it was bad for the Phillies to keep him in the first place. Crawford was more puzzling because he clearly had a future as a major league regular and also got on base; it's not clear to me that Williams is ever going to be more than a 4th OF.

It might be nice to know what would have happened had they not signed Cutch, or signed Machado instead of Harper. But as the team is currently constituted I'd rather trade Nick Williams for a more suitable bench piece or reliever than tap into the farm system.

[andyb]

Assuming Kingery is the 3B Williams would still be just the 8th-best hitter in this line-up and even then you still might prefer Quinn's meager bat in CF. Or Herrera.

This is just overemphasizing small sample size stats though. Incorrectly I would add. The biggest danger is over-interpreting the last week or month or even year when you ignore the years that preceded that. Look at Williams' record before this season including the minors and it screams 800 OPS projection, maybe even 850-900 in his prime years. Throw out this year because it is a tiny sample and he was mis-handled.

Then let's look at the lineup. Harper and Hoskins project to be better. Segura and Realmuto project to something close to Williams. Kingery too. Segura has had one 800 OPS season and it was 3 years ago. He is the 767 OPS guy he has been this year. Cesar at 753 is also what he is. 40 points off his career high 2 years ago when he was 27. Cutch is gone. Bruce probably projects about as well as Williams. He has been better this year but was at 680 last year.

None of this says Williams will actually do it. We just don't know until they try though and I just don't see a lot of offense on this club now.

Good teams don't waste assets. The Phillies seem to all the time.

[flyers19rw]

There was something off about the relationship between the Phillies and Crawford. They didn’t seem to be on the same wavelength on his usage. Contrary to the evaluation of some WIP personalities, Segura is a good player. Given a choice between the two, the Phillies are in a good spot with what they have now.

[andyb]

Crawford might be better than Segura now. And is younger and cheaper and under control for more years. Yes it is a small sample, but it is actually completely in line with the expectations of his minor league performance. He has added enough power that he looks to be a 15 HR guy (remember the LHV second half a few years ago). That is an 800 OPS SS and his defense is likely to grade better as he gets more experience.

When teams mess up relationships with young players like Crawford and Williams sometimes the team is at fault. It happens far too often with this club. Crawford had every right to be annoyed with the Phillies last year when they played Kingery at SS over him when he was healthy when Kingery was struggling as much as Crawford. Not sure if Klentak or Kapler is to blame for that one, but they might have devalued a valuable asset (Crawford) with their stupidity or favoritism to Kingery.

[DurhamBull]

Frankly we might have been better off making Carlos Santana the 3B (967 OPS, 3.2 WAR).

I don't think anyone predicted that at age 32 he'd be having a career year with an OPS 150 points above his career average. Think of the umbrage that would be directed at the Phils if they had kept Santana and let him be the poor defender at 3B that he'd probably be and was putting up an even more mediocre offensive season than last year. Typical, predictable age-related decline, how could the Phils not have seen that coming?

Meanwhile, Franco would have been traded for a bag of balls, and he might well have been the one having a breakout year at 26. I think the Phils were unlucky on both ends of the Santana trade, but I don't think those outcomes were obvious.