2019 Phillies Season Discussion (part 2)

[Philsmania]

The Phillies current situation has me thinking of the 2015 Padres and AJ Preller who went big and bold the prior offseason only to have the Padres bomb badly once the season started as the below article illustrates. Of course, there are key differences as well, namely that Klentak has not traded away as many prospects as Preller did. Remarkably, Preller is still the Padres GM despite that not-so-spectacular performance (and after he got suspended for 30 days by MLB for concealing medical records prior to the Drew Pomeranz trade to the Red Sox in 2016 and sent damaged goods to Miami in Colin Rea that same season). Padres ownership is showing him absolutely incredible loyalty after he arguably should have gotten fired twice, first for incompetence and then for corrupt, unethical conduct. But, one can't help but wonder how badly last offseason has set the Phillies back. Will Klentak be given the opportunity to clean up this mess? Should he?

Teardown Artist

[zambonir]

It's very damning. As much as Kapler is supposed to be an egghead he sells himself as a communicator and a relationships guy too. But there is also some original sin here, it seems, in that he was not allowed to pick his own pitching coach in the first place (if memory serves nobody really seemed to want the job, and if Kranitz was so great as the assistant maybe they should have just kept McLure too!). And then he was allowed to have his guy, so now that might be the thing that gets him fired, because that's how it works.

The results this year weren't actually that much worse, IMO. The same second-half collapse stemming from the same cratering of multiple starters and a worn-out (and this year, more injured) bullpen. Of course, if you live and die by FIP as they did, it's ironic that Kranitz's staff excelled in that area and the changes Young may have implemented made everyone worse.

But none of that really matters, it's more the culture this describes. Hardly surprising though. Seems like an obvious too many cooks/chain of command issue, from the hiring of Kranitz (pushed by MacPhail, it's implied) to the fact that Kapler had to beg the front office to swing the ax. Also I wonder why they just didn't refuse to let Young leave, unless he only had a one-year contract? Several teams refused to let their Assistant GMs interview for better jobs last year.

I think Andy's right, my first instinct reading this is, "this is bad for Kapler," but in reality, it makes Klentak and MacPhail look just as bad. Of course they could relieve pressure on themselves just by firing Kapler. And in the big picture Middleton is no less culpable in the chain of command.

If this team's future looked like the Padres right now that would probably be okay!

[Philsmania]

If this team's future looked like the Padres right now that would probably be okay!

It doesn't. It may look like the Padres post-2015 future. The Padres' future looks great now but it took them four seasons to recover from the win-now moves of 2014-15.

[EDmuch]

I think the story makes BOTH Kapler and Klentak look terrible, particularly Klentak who seems to be operating a combined zoo and circus during his time as GM.

[Patchmk88]

I’m one of the few people not to have joined the athletic. Can anyone give a brief overview of what the article said? I can infer that there is a lot of miscommunication amongst our staff, but not much else.

[allentown]

This is a very damning article and prime evidence of my greatest concerns about the Phillies: 1) churn -- we change the pitching philosophy in Kapler's second season and farther into MacPhail's and Klentak's tenure, 2) not allowing players to do what has worked with them, while slowly tweaking what they are doing -- the continued square pegs into round holes approach, a naïve approach to trend-chasing and implementing stats with stats guys and a manager and coach who had never actually implemented stats or actually worked to successfully change the approach of players taught under a different philosophy in OUR organization, keeping the wrong guy (remember the decade plus of zilch from Dominican Republic -- where we had been leaders, but Giles wanted to cut staff and picked the wrong guy: the administrator whom I guess he was most comfortable with vs the successful bird dog, a basic unwillingness/inability to work openly with and establish trust and rapport with your players before foisting major change upon them. No wonder our pitching wen south, despite trading for a top catcher who was supposed to be plus in working with pitchers. I suspect the same thing happened on the hitting side with the emphasis upon launch angle. Performance down, HRs also not good. There are organizational reasons (management and baseball-side staff) why this team has done such a shabby job of finding and developing young talent. I strongy suspect that if somebody does a thorough examination for Middleton (which I guess is what Charlie Manuel is doing) that there will be a clear reason why this team has collapsed roughly half-way through each of the last two seasons.

The baseball playoff format let's 1/3 of teams entry into the first round of playoffs. Since we were in playoffs in 2011, we are one of only 3 (20%) of NL teams not to get into the payoffs since that year. Worse, we haven't even gotten a strong whiff of the playoffs in any of those years. Something is badly wrong with the Phillies baseball-side management.

We remain a dysfunctional organization. Let's hope we're better next year and Klentak strikes early with extensions, because the odds of re-signing Realmuto and Segura look worse and worse.

[allentown]

It's taken the Phillies 8 years and counting, as a large revenue team.

[Philsmania]

We remain a dysfunctional organization. Let's hope we're better next year and Klentak strikes early with extensions, because the odds of re-signing Realmuto and Segura look worse and worse.

Notwithstanding his friendship with Harper, one has to wonder why Realmuto would want to sign here long-term after having had an opportunity to see this clownshow from the inside. These guys are the Keystone Kops of analytics.

[zambonir]

the odds of re-signing Realmuto and Segura look worse and worse.

JT will sign if he gets a fair offer. Why would you want to re-sign Segura? I can't even imagine it will be worth picking up his 2023 option. If he had the same contract status as Hernandez we might even be talking about trading him (same age, same OPS+).

I don't see the since-2011 playoff drought as being especially meaningful. It was meaningful from 2012-2014 since Amaro was still trying to win (though not so much that they were willing to pay the tax once they were stuck with all that dead money). From 2015-2017 they were not (and even making the playoffs wasn't a real goal last year). And it's hardly news that the organization didn't have a clue under Monty, Amaro and Gillick. The news is that they still might not. Obviously they haven't tanked/drafted especially well, nor shown they are better (than the old regime or than other teams) at anything.

[allentown]

I do think 8 years is an intolerably long time, especially since they have done nothing to suggest they have moved themselves up to the cusp of success. Really, I see a lot of largely wasted time under all of these administrations.

I don't blame the old guard for 2012. RAJ built such a strong 2011 team, which inexplicably fizzled in the playoff season. I would have taken another shot in 2012 if I were in his position. 2013 a lot harder to excuse, and after that.

As I said in another post: Wade acquired and protected the 2008 core and his baseball people developed these talents; Gillick made some bad deals and inexplicable cuts but made the necessary tweaks to get us the 2008 championship including the essential trade for Lidge, RAJ took what he inherited from Gillick and ignored replenishing the farm but considerably strengthened the MLB Phillies -- his teams had multiple shots to win it all, 2009-2011 teams wee all stronger than the 2008 WC team, which was hot at the right time.

My career at a mid-sized Fortune 500 company convinced me of one important thing: a corporation can make quite a few very bad decisions and survive and even flourish if they make just a very few bad decisions. I think the same is true of baseball teams. I could tick off a handful of very bad decisions made by Gillick. He also made several very good decisions and that was enough to get us the WS. What very good decisions have the Phillies made lately. Certainly drafting Nola, I think signing Harper (although that was very expensive) and, if he is re-signed to a reasonable deal, trading for Realmuto. Can't think of any others and, with the possible exception of Nola, none match Gillick's trade for Lidge and signing of Werth.

Now, what can I say positive about MacPhail/Klentak/Kapler? Honestly, not a lot. They have moved slowly and jerkily, creating more churn than change. They have been trend-followers, rather than leaders or serious analytical types who made the absolute most out of what they had. They have been endlessly timid. They don't seem to treat the major league player or minor league prospects as individuals. They can seem very petty. It is easy to take the cynical view that they have deliberately stretched out the change so that they delay the date of their own reckoning. I think they will be able to escape the falling blade for only so long. We've had a lot of top draft picks and largish (not Dodgers' big) international spends, but the talent on the farm, even on the lower levels is more intriguing than inspiring. We have a sub-par farm. We traded our top two prospects to win now. We didn't. At least one poster has asked, basically: why in the world would we want to extend Segura or even pick up his option? I admit, it's a serious question, but also a damning indictment of Klentak.

[Philsmania]

I don't blame RAJ for trying to make get one more "last hurrah" in 2013. Doing so in 2014 was pure folly. However, what he should have done--and I am not sure if it was you or someone else who suggested it--he should have been more "all in" on that effort. They shouldn't have traded away Pence at that point and either kept or brought back Victorino while signing a FA starter.

We went thirteen years without a Postseason appearance from 1994 to 2006 and that was preceded by a nine year drought from 1984 to 1992 for a grand total of one Postseason appearance in a twenty-three year stretch after the First Golden Age ended in 1983. That's kind of dulled me to going eight seasons without a Postseason appearance though it is now the fifth longest Postseason drought in baseball after the Mariners (2001), Marlins (2003), Padres (2006) and White Sox (2008). What's grinding on me is the winning season drought, possibly, maybe probably going on eight years. That is now the third longest in baseball behind only the Marlins (2009) and Padres (2010) and, for the Phillies, is the going on the longest non-winning season drought since 1933-1948, unprecedented in all of our lifetimes, I suspect.

[DurhamBull]

a corporation can make quite a few very bad decisions and survive and even flourish if they make just a very few bad decisions.

Did you mean "... flourish if they make just a very few good decisions."?

[zambonir]

At least one poster has asked, basically: why in the world would we want to extend Segura or even pick up his option? I admit, it's a serious question, but also a damning indictment of Klentak

That wasn't my intent, though Segura's disappointing season prompted the Hernandez question. I just don't think they traded for Segura so he could play here for 6-8 years. 4-5 is plenty. He still made and probably will continue to make the team better but we can't be sure of that.

Realmuto's a different story, they paid a high price (for a much better player) to get only two controllable years and need him for longer than that.

Overall, your analysis points back to ownership. Middleton was certainly aligned with Monty in wanting to get the damn trophy back and rewarding players for their past performance. And his "coup" has gotten us another Bill Giles type (it's right there in MacPhail's family history, though he certainly was a better baseball man) at the top and the admirable goal of change/disruption, but poor execution.

[allentown]

Yes, my bad. I guess I meant good-to-great, rather than just barely good. Certainly not bad -- I typed to fast and didn't proof-read, which is not a great thing to do, but often proofing what you've just typed causes you to see what you think you put there, whereas a day or even a few hours later, the error is clear.

[rkeden]

I need an education-- why is the board so down on Segura? He is 16th in the National League in hits and 3rd for shortstops. He has had a very similar year to last year in Seattle-- a bit lower BA but higher slugging and more xtra base hits. He does have 20 errors spread over 142 games but I think he has been steady and valuable in the field. Been involved in 83 double plays. Strong arm, good but not great base runner--only thrown out 2 times

What am I missing. We traded for a good steady durable shortstop and he has had that kind of year for the Phils. Were we looking for a big jump in stats, maybe home field related? I actually like watching him play. He seems "heady" to me. I don't stay up a bit later to watch his next at bat but I never thought that was the point of the trade.

Help me here.

[andyb]

Segura has been worth 1.4 WAR this year. His offense kind of stayed the same as last year when offense around the league improved. So he is now an average SS offensively and defensively (he was never more than average there). He also does not grade very well in baserunning which explains the lowish WAR. Segura is only OK, and he is at an age where he probably gets a little worse the next 3 years.

It is not really down on Segura. It is more the realization that Segura is not the player he was when he was 27 and fans kind of expected that to continue. He is not the problem, but he has not really made the team much better either.

[Philsmania]

We would have been better off keeping him and Santana and trading Hoskins. Thanks, Dartmouth Dunce.

[zambonir]

Yeah, I'm not down on Segura, I think he's fine, I just don't think he was ever going to make the team better past 2021 (which is also when Cutch's deal expires, assuming he's not a 4th OF himself by then) and he was never a big defensive upgrade. And dropping from a 111 to 90 OPS+ is not a small thing. They wanted him for his contact skills but if he's not hitting .300 he makes a lot of outs.

He had a lot of injuries this year which is also part of approaching 30 of course. I think if Phillies phans specifically are disappointed in him it's because his struggles mirrored the team. He was an all-star in April and a perfectly good player in May but cratered 3 of the last 4 months.

As I alluded, it's basically understood that Cesar is in decline and needs to go, but he put up a 2.2 WAR and has the same OPS+. It's also thought Cesar needs to go because he's about make $10 million in arbitration but Segura's salary next year (and every year for the next four) is $14.25.

There's not gonna be any pressure or competition to sign that guy in 2023 (no chance the Phillies pick up a $17 million option by then), he'll be taking a pay cut just like Cesar will after next season.

[rkeden]

Thank you, folks!

[fish]

The Phils are literally up against a hard place. Most teams in a position like they are in - talented but not nearly enough, like the 2017 Marlins, they sell and try again. The Phils are supposed to be rising to a pinnacle, but they aren’t, they’re stuck. Every example we know of (except maybe the 2009 Yankees) was not able to overcome a talent deficit so big by spending that nearly half the roster needs to be turned over. They need someone supremely talented to overcome this obstacle- who in the world could really believe that person is the one who’s been in charge for the last 4 years?