2019 Phillies Season Discussion (part 2)

zambonir 2019-09-25 20:18:11 UTC #706

I'm not saying Middleton's money is bad. I just think it's bad when the owner gets too hands-on. And since he's guy who hired MacPhail and MacPhail hired his protege, that's on Middleton too. As an owner, Middleton's main accomplishments are two palace coups that didn't happen until rock bottom (or, in Monty's case, terminal illness) and writing a few checks.

It's pure hindsight obviously but if the 2019 team had stayed in more of a rebuilding mode (while still signing Harper, certainly) we'd had more young players, fewer injured players, the same record or better and a brighter future.

All three of these guys (and Gillick too) said we were gonna experience a Cubs/Astros-like rebuild. The losing, and the low-spending and "second-tier," was supposed to be on purpose. But the talent wasn't there, and Klentak didn't do anything to speed that up in his first couple of drafts. So they spent, and traded. The glacial pace of complete organizational change was also clearly part of the plan (and if it wasn't MacPhail should have done something about it already).

Ironically, we kind of are where the Phillies were with Wade. He got fired even though those teams were winning 'cause they couldn't get over the top and the fan base couldn't stand him. If they did change GMs, especially if it was someone like Dombrowski, I think history would repeat - maybe we get some short-term success with what's already here, and spend money to prolong that, but there won't be anything sustainable.

Klentak doesn't get a good grade overall, no. The question is how long was he supposed to have to meet his goals? If it wasn't supposed to be a long process they probably shouldn't have hired a rookie GM, a rookie coach. Or a President whose career highlight was in the '90s.

Austinfan 2019-09-25 20:35:51 UTC #707

I also wonder if the slow pace of organizational change was due to Middleton, who probably has known as lot of these guys for decades - certainly Klentak had no loyalty to the old guard, but ironically might have needed some failures to get carte blanche to make major changes and fire people.

bkeich 2019-09-25 20:59:47 UTC #708

Keep in mind, that "Post Wade" period was the best in Franchise history. I think we would all take a period of buildup, 5 division championships, 2 World Series appearances and 1 WS win followed by 6 years of rebuilding again. Honestly, that doesnt sound bad at all.

I get what you are saying, that a sustainable competitive team is better in many ways, but honestly is it possible? The Yankees have only won 1 WS in 18 years, although they are in the playoffs almost every year, so yes, I would say they have "sustained". The Cardinals "sustain" through the years, or at least the last 20. I can't think of another franchise, unless you go back to the Bobby Cox Braves.

We don't have anywhere near the front office that those two (Yankees, Cardinals) have. Not even laughably close. I get that is a goal, but honestly I am not sure anyone really thinks we are making progress to building a sustainable winning franchise. We had a rebuild, we cashed it in, now we have a bad farm system and hopefully a core that will make the playoffs a few times, but after that... yea, back to 2012 again.

How do you change to a sustainable franchise? I think it is pretty clear that no one in the Phillies organization has a plan or clue how to do that since we are currently showing NO SIGN of having a plan that results in making the playoffs 10 out of 15 years.

mdougherty12 2019-09-25 21:20:46 UTC #709

Knee surgery for Realmuto:

Philsmania 2019-09-25 21:33:16 UTC #710

bkeich:

zambonir:

Ironically, we kind of are where the Phillies were with Wade. He got fired even though those teams were winning 'cause they couldn't get over the top and the fan base couldn't stand him. If they did change GMs, especially if it was someone like Dombrowski, I think history would repeat - maybe we get some short-term success with what's already here, and spend money to prolong that, but there won't be anything sustainable.
Keep in mind, that "Post Wade" period was the best in Franchise history. I think we would all take a period of buildup, 5 division championships, 2 World Series appearances and 1 WS win followed by 6 years of rebuilding again. Honestly, that doesnt sound bad at all.

I get what you are saying, that a sustainable competitive team is better in many ways, but honestly is it possible? The Yankees have only won 1 WS in 18 years, although they are in the playoffs almost every year, so yes, I would say they have "sustained". The Cardinals "sustain" through the years, or at least the last 20. I can't think of another franchise, unless you go back to the Bobby Cox Braves.

We don't have anywhere near the front office that those two (Yankees, Cardinals) have. Not even laughably close. I get that is a goal, but honestly I am not sure anyone really thinks we are making progress to building a sustainable winning franchise. We had a rebuild, we cashed it in, now we have a bad farm system and hopefully a core that will make the playoffs a few times, but after that... yea, back to 2012 again.

How do you change to a sustainable franchise? I think it is pretty clear that no one in the Phillies organization has a plan or clue how to do that since we are currently showing NO SIGN of having a plan that results in making the playoffs 10 out of 15 years.

The last 20 years for the Cardinals? Try going back all the way to the 1920's. The Dodgers since the 1940's. TThe Red Sox, only seven losing seasons since 1967. And, of course, the Yankees are the Yankees. Some franchises just find a way to sustain excellence interminably and avoid the "down" cycles that the other franchises have to endure. They manage to keep their farm system in tip-top shape despite winning at the ML level and getting lesser draft picks as a result. Perhaps it is money, perhaps it is a "culture of competence" as I called it or, perhaps, organizations like this just naturally draw the proverbial "best and brightest".

zambonir 2019-09-25 21:56:55 UTC #711

So why are we so impatient all of a sudden?

Honestly if the Phillies had won a WS in 2011 Amaro would probably still be the GM. And given how little we have to show for 2012-2014, the mistake they made in those years, since they weren't ready to tank, was to not go even harder after short-term success (don't trade Pence and re-sign Vic instead of going cheap on OFs, bust the luxury tax to replace Halladay and Lee instead of an expensive half-measure like Burnett).

schillingfan 2019-09-25 23:13:13 UTC #712

I credit the golden era of Wade to Arbuckle. He oversaw the farm system that brought us those great players that were the core of the 2007-2012 team. Wade was horrible at trades. The only good thing he did was refuse to trade prospects, so none of the good players got away. This meant he also was unwilling to gamble trading any prospects who would bring us over the top. Oh, and lastly, he always wanted “major league ready” returns for our stars rather than Lower level prospects. Oh wait, he also had an obsession for veteran relief pitchers.

LoneStarPhan 2019-09-25 23:27:44 UTC #713

Turk Wendell sums it up.

EDmuch 2019-09-26 15:48:10 UTC #714

Last nite, in a game critical to the Rays wild card chances, Charlie Morton shut out the Yankees 4-0. Morton is 5-0 in September with 16 wins. This marks the third straight year that Morton has increased his season win total. Do you think his 16 wins might have made a difference this year if those wins were for the Phils?

And Morton is not an isolated example. Sonny Gray, who was available for next to nothing before the start of the season went 11-8 with a 2.87 ERA. Another pitcher missed by Klentak,

Klentak and his horrific judgement of our pitching needs is the person who should be held accountable for this season.

Austinfan 2019-09-26 17:40:34 UTC #715

Hindsight is 20/20, it's like saying Eagles should have drafted Tom Brady.
Morton if signed by the Phillies would have blown out his hammie by June, you can count on it.

xogfog 2019-09-26 17:54:23 UTC #716

We already did that. Yes, we don't have a great history of being on the right end of a player's career, from Fergie Jenkins, to Sandberg, to always having the wrong brother, to the Morton, Freddie Garcia, Danny Tartabull, Clay Buchholz non-seasons, there is certainly reason to be pessimistic. But I give the Philles a pass on Morton, having had the experience already with him, it's kind of hard to take that chance.

zambonir 2019-09-26 18:21:35 UTC #717

I'm not sure Morton would have come back (and Houston didn't want him at all either. They could have gotten him with just a QO.)

We know they offfered Corbin, that's still the mistake probably, getting hung up over a 6th year. Though at the time he signed the Phillies had not put all their chips on this season.

They got lucky not getting Happ. Over the past few seasons we've talked about guys like Gray, Tyler Chatwood, Lance Lynn, even Vargas who is now here. Some would have worked out, some not.

If just one of the three pitchers had been consistent, and Nola had been consistent, and the bullpen had held up, they're probably still winning 88 or 90 games. Could Morton have helped them do that too? Sure, but it's just one move of many Klentak made (many of which were good). I'd sooner second-guess him choosing Robertson over some of the other relievers but nobody would have predicted Robertson would be a bust (let alone a health risk) at the time.

andyb 2019-09-26 20:23:52 UTC #718

Looking at Hoskins' monthly splits is interesting. In August when things went really South he had a a.197 BABIP but 24 BBs against 26 Ks. In September he continued to have bad luck (.212 BABIP) but his BB/K ratio cratered to 10/30.

That pattern would suggest a plausible explanation of Hoskins having bad luck in August, and then getting frustrated in September trying to expand the zone or guess hit. It is like he got frustrated with his bad luck. Maybe pitchers started getting him to chase more in September, but it really seems to be a fixable problem for the player. Sometimes a run of bad luck can cascade on a player.

xogfog 2019-09-26 20:28:03 UTC #719

I wonder if Hoskin's decline was due to pitchers either hitting him too often and all the high and tight near misses.

Austinfan 2019-09-27 05:32:38 UTC #720

Corbin didn't make sense, the same way Cole doesn't make sense.

These are the gambles you make when you're Washington this year, or the Phillies in 2009, window wide open with only a few years, so if he implodes in year 4, so what?
Corbin/Cole aren't putting the Phillies over the top, so why take the 6 year risk?

As Arrieta showed, past performance with mileage doesn't guarantee future performance, we saw that with Halladay and Lee.

The whole problem with last year's offseason is that it was built around the idea of building an instant winner on a shaky foundation. First build the team and the organization, THEN role the dice.

Harper is an exception, he wanted to commit, he took a relatively low average salary, and he's here for the long run.
And if he's committed to conditioning, he should be productive for most of his contract.

Lawman 2019-09-27 14:42:27 UTC #721

Really damning report about the Phillies' pitching strategy up on the The Athletic (paywall).

nycphils 2019-09-27 15:12:10 UTC #722

Yes...I’d like to change my answer not only on Kapler but on Klentak as well. This article is quite damning in painting a picture of ham handedness and cluelessness of the current management team.

Lawman 2019-09-27 15:41:54 UTC #723

This seems to be indicative of an organization that has no sense of direction, of how to manage data and apply that data to real life situations. Of how to manage people.

andyb 2019-09-27 15:52:16 UTC #724

The extent that Young had never directly worked with pitchers in Houston is a little shocking when paired with the way he was elevated here. Not sure if that was on Kapler or Klentak or both of them, but it really looks like they considered analytics way too highly in their evaluation of coaches.

This will be a fascinating next couple of weeks. I have a feeling everybody gets fired or nobody does. Not sure there is much room for in between strategies.

Philsmania 2019-09-27 16:16:10 UTC #725

Like Jeffrey Lurie said when he fired Chip Kelly, there is a need for "emotional intelligence" as well. Somewhere along the line, it's lacking here, even with Kapler and his sensitive male approach.