2019 Phillies Season Discussion (part 2)

[andyb]

A trade and a contract extension are two distinct events. The trade is for the players involved and the years of control. One evaluates the contract extension against the money it costs (and whatever you could have alternately signed with the $100 million). Not a difficult concept. Not strange in the least. There is perhaps a slight advantage in the odds of resigning a player so maybe the trade evaluation should include the value of a comp pick, but that is really all unless the player chooses to sign for a discount.

Instead of arguing semantics, how would you evaluate the trade? Are you willing to resign him for $100 million? Would it be a good risk to pay a 33-year-old catcher $25 million? Do you consider it a success to do a "win now" trade and then not "win now"? If the trades Klentak has made were so great, why are we losing and have what neutral observers say is a below average farm system? Injuries are not why we have a below average farm system. It might have something to do with the trades we have made.

[allentown]

KlentakKapler were young, short-on-resume 'bright comers' who were promoted in coming to Philly. They needed to prove that they were worthy of that promotion. The question is not whether they've done an ok job versus a bad job. The question should be whether or not they have done a good job: whether the organization has significantly improved its chances of advancing in the playoffs over the next couple of seasons and whether the organization today is stronger across the board than the one they inherited (quality of 25-man and 40-man roster, quality of prospects below AA level, quality of scouting and instructional staff, provision of the necessary managerial and baseball stability necessary to build a consistent winner, and consistency of what is being asked of players at all levels of the organization -- structuring goals/instruction based upon individual player's strengths/weaknesses but structured so the player hear's the same message at every level, and having the scouts draft/sign players who fit the organizational model).

[bigegypt0417]

Instead of arguing semantics, how would you evaluate the trade? Are you willing to resign him for $100 million? Would it be a good risk to pay a 33-year-old catcher $25 million? Do you consider it a success to do a "win now" trade and then not "win now"?

Cutting off the statistics after two years to make the argument fall in your favor is not semantics.

The trade needs to be looked at some years down the line when all the dust has settled. If the phillies resign their recent acquisition, that isn't the start of a new clock...that is insanity. The phillies didn't win this year and that has nothing to do with the catcher.

Realmuto will have sunken costs in his contract but he may also have 3-5 years playing at a high level.

[zambonir]

I'm with Andy on this one - it's not "cutting the statistics off." There are no statistics. As of right now, Realmuto doesn't play for the Phillies in 2021, just like Jean Segura likely won't play for the Phillies in 2023 (the only difference is we probably don't want him to). The trade can only be evaluated on the years of control that you give up and acquire in the trade, just like a free agent signing can only be evaluated for that contract, not whether you sign the player again.

If Realmuto had signed an extension at the time of the trade (like Halladay), different story.

Yes, you can add in the fact that acquiring him has given the Phillies a considerable advantage in re-signing him, particularly if he never hits the open market (which he likely won't). And probably Realmuto never plays for the Phillies from 2021-2025 if he's not first traded here. But we can't really know that either way.

And I'm fine with giving him the money, he's going to be worth it even if the bat starts to fall. Also, having him allows them to trade from their current minor league catching depth, so that's a value-add to the ability to extend him too.

I guess we can all agree that if JT decides to hit the open market and leaves for the Yankees it would be a bad trade though.

[Florida_Sunshine]

I think it would be instructive to take a look back at the argument that was made with regard to trading for Machado as a rental. I seem to recall many on here arguing that it was worth it, rather than wait until he was a free agent, and that trading for him would increase our chances of keeping him.

Please explain to me how there is a difference between that and now with Realmuto.........

And then on top of that, Realmuto was also brought in to help out a young pitching corps, something Alfaro was not able to really do.

[Patchmk88]

And then on top of that, Realmuto was also brought in to help out a young pitching corps, something Alfaro was not able to really do.

Well neither did Realmuto considering the results this year.

[Florida_Sunshine]

We know he helped with eliminating runners on base that he threw out while attempting to steal. We just honestly don’t know how much else he helped.

[zambonir]

I think that fundamentally the Machado and Realmuto situations are the same, except you were only getting three months of Manny and you got two years of Realmuto. Trading Sixto and Crawford (for instance) for the former, on a team that wasn't ready to win anything, would have been a much higher price to pay. And was one the Dodgers were ready to pay because they were a World Series team already, and also didn't need to keep him (arguably the value they got out of having him was in figuring out they didn't want him, not the chance to lock him up early).

But this year the Phillies were ready (we thought), and it was February not July. And the value of the "he might re-sign" factor is considerably higher with Realmuto, both because of the amount of time he's here getting comfortable/recruited (1-2 years instead of two months) and because the Phillies can still keep him from hitting the open market with an arbitration year remaining. There was next to no chance of keeping Machado from hitting the open market but either way you were signing him as a FA not to an extension. If the Phillies don't take advantage of that (having already punted on this year with regards to length/AAV) and don't get any kind of discount on JT's extension they got less value from the trade as well.

Alfaro actually graded higher than Realmuto defensively (particularly for pitch framing, and it's not like Alfaro was bad at throwing guys out). The Phillies made Alfaro better and then they made JT better.

[xogfog]

Well, the season is all but over, disappointing on most levels. Harper had a good year, very clutch hitting, but not the MVP discussion year we hoped he'd have. Hoskins decline is worrisome. Realmuto should be re-signed. Nola's end of season collapse, be it bad luck or poor performance solidifies in my mind that they cannot win if he is considered their ace.

The McCutchen injury and the Herrera fiasco really seemed to release all the steam the team had to start the season. The miscalculations by the front office of the pitching staff, both starters and relievers was flawed and cost them any chance of postseason play. The handling of Franco was bush league. Sean Rodriguez should never have been on the roster, let alone get the amount of play he did.

I think wholesale organizational change is required, Klentak, Kapler and his staff should all be let go IMHO. Middleton has to put his money where his mouth is and if it requires spending into the luxery tax next year, they have to do it. They need to make a serious run at Cole and give Realmuto what he is worth.

Next year, they need to make the postseason with the payroll they will likely be paying. They don't seem to be primed to make a trade for a quality starter. Hoskins value is as low as could be, Hernandez isn't worth much. No pitchers are worth much either.

They have to hope for positive contributions from Howard and Bohm next year. They need Hoskins to bounce back, Kingery to keep improving, Harper and Realmuto to do what they should do and they need to revamp the bullpen and pitching staff. That's a tall order without much in the pipeline to trade but that's why they need someone better than Klentak to pull it off.

I'd see if Joe Girardi still wants to manage and if so, I'd give him the staff he wants As for GM, I honestly don't know. I like Dombroski more than most people do, but he has had success with high payroll teams. I don't have many other insights as to who might be a better candidate, but I really think a change is needed. The mishandling of the roster, especially the pitching staff this year is a huge indictment on Klentak and the organization as a whole. With Almaraz leaving this is the time to rebuild the organization while the core of this team is in it's prime. The draft, trade and free agent decisions going forward have to be on the money if the team is going to move in the right direction. I don't trust anyone in the organization at this time except for Middleton's pockets.and the hopes that he'll pay to put the right pieces in place.

[Philsmania]

Well, the season is all but over, disappointing on most levels. Harper had a good year, very clutch hitting, but not the MVP discussion year we hoped he'd have. Hoskins decline is worrisome. Realmuto should be re-signed. Nola's end of season collapse, be it bad luck or poor performance solidifies in my mind that they cannot win if he is considered their ace.

The McCutchen injury and the Herrera fiasco really seemed to release all the steam the team had to start the season. The miscalculations by the front office of the pitching staff, both starters and relievers was flawed and cost them any chance of postseason play. The handling of Franco was bush league. Sean Rodriguez should never have been on the roster, let alone get the amount of play he did.

I think wholesale organizational change is required, Klentak, Kapler and his staff should all be let go IMHO. Middleton has to put his money where his mouth is and if it requires spending into the luxery tax next year, they have to do it. They need to make a serious run at Cole and give Realmuto what he is worth.

Next year, they need to make the postseason with the payroll they will likely be paying. They don't seem to be primed to make a trade for a quality starter. Hoskins value is as low as could be, Hernandez isn't worth much. No pitchers are worth much either.

They have to hope for positive contributions from Howard and Bohm next year. They need Hoskins to bounce back, Kingery to keep improving, Harper and Realmuto to do what they should do and they need to revamp the bullpen and pitching staff. That's a tall order without much in the pipeline to trade but that's why they need someone better than Klentak to pull it off.

I'd see if Joe Girardi still wants to manage and if so, I'd give him the staff he wants As for GM, I honestly don't know. I like Dombroski more than most people do, but he has had success with high payroll teams. I don't have many other insights as to who might be a better candidate, but I really think a change is needed. The mishandling of the roster, especially the pitching staff this year is a huge indictment on Klentak and the organization as a whole. With Almaraz leaving this is the time to rebuild the organization while the core of this team is in it's prime. The draft, trade and free agent decisions going forward have to be on the money if the team is going to move in the right direction. I don't trust anyone in the organization at this time except for Middleton's pockets.and the hopes that he'll pay to put the right pieces in place.

I think this is right on the money. We've ended up with a not-good ML team and a poor farm system. Our only option is to spend our way out of this mess but, truth be told, that rarely works. Simply put, this organization is in a bad spot and one which would have to give any serious GM or managerial candidate pause before coming here. We are not rebuilding anymore but not a realistic contender either. However, rebuilding while trying to contend is darned near impossible, unless you are a either the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox or Cardinals and have vast resources and a culture of competence which spans generations. All rebuilding while trying to contend usually does is leave you on a treadmill of mediocrity or less than mediocrity.

I know I sound like a broken record, but within two years, I truly believe there is going to have to be a painful reckoning that this organization is going to have blow out all up and start all over again.

Heck, for that matter, it ought to give Realmuto pause before committing to here long term.

[Austinfan]

I don't know how much blame Klentak should have for the farm system, the problems are really from 3-7 years ago, that is, the players who should have filled out the system that were never drafted/signed in LA. How many misses are his and how many RA's? The drafts have been solid if not spectacular.

Wasn't hired until October, 2015, so he's had 4 drafts, most of whom would be A ball (if HS), AA if college at best.
Ortiz was a commitment made before his tenure, and the LA group was in place.
2016: Moniak, Gowdy, Stobbe, Romero, Irvin, Stephen (11),
2017: Haseley, Howard, Seabold, Scheiner, Lindlow, Maton (7), Brogdon (10), Dohy (16), D Jones (18), Hernandez (20)
2018: Bohm, Eastman, Vierling, Simmons (6), O'Hoppe (23),
2016 was disappointing, 2017 was great, 2018 may end up a two man draft.

[zambonir]

The Red Sox are just as dysfunctional, if you're really looking for a new GM. And I'm not sure Girardi is even a good manager, while most of Chicago can't wait for Maddon to leave. Given the trend in managerial salaries the Phillies wouldn't have a problem landing a big name if they wanted one. Mattingly just took a pay cut and Maddon, Girardi and Showalter (per Rosenthal) will probably have to at their next job too.

(That makes no sense to me, incidentally, that managers are paid even less than Jared Hughes. Maybe we should remember that when we expect so much from them.)

I still think this team is a contender. The line between a .450 team and a .550 team in baseball is very fine even when you don't get hit with injuries. No question they still lack depth/future stars past 2021 though. While I agree Klentak is not responsible for the overall organizational thinness, the fact remains that other teams (whether it's San Diego or the Braves) have done much better at re-stocking, and MacPhail and Klentak have repeatedly said they were following the Cubs/Astros models, but didn't actually have any homegrown players to do it with (and funny, neither of those teams "grew the pitchers" either).

At the end of the day, if you think things are really that bleak for the Phillies, look at John Middleton and the Bucks, not the GM or the manager. They are the only thing that hasn't changed.

[andyb]

So he has had 4 drafts and he has no blame for the state of the farm system? Four drafts where the team drafted high and has been among the top 10 clubs spending internationally? I am guessing the vast majority (80%-90%) of the system is his. There were some prospect trades like Sanchez, but the bigger issue is prospect graduations and those top prospects have simply not been replaced as quickly as they graduated.

Based on their progress thus far the additions to the system the last 4 years are below average when compared to the rest of baseball who we are competing with. Top 10 first round picks are supposed to be good prospects (top 100 overall). We just have not produced many top prospects beyond the first round of late.

[andyb]

I still think this team is a contender. The line between a .450 team and a .550 team in baseball is very fine even when you don't get hit with injuries.

Agree with that. Better health and we are a 85-88 win team this year. The problem they will face is that with a below average farm system the only way to be better than 85-88 wins is probably to spend money. As in go over the competitive balance tax line to go get a Gerrit Cole. As long as they keep winning they can probably afford to do so and remain profitable. It also might not be the worst risk in assuming that the luxury tax line will move $20 or $30 million higher in the next agreement, providing a path to get under if they are over for a couple of seasons. The lack of good young players really forces this though. They can't count on the young starting pitchers and there are only a handful of low cost position prospects that look to be plus major leaguers (Bohm is the only obvious one close to the majors).

[allentown]

And many of us thought that would be an incredibly stupid thing to do. Top FAs tend to go for whomever offers the most $. If the Phillies want Realmuto back, they should sign him now, rather than waiting for next season. I would never trade for an expensive player under the theory that it would make him easier to sign, especially since playing for a team which doesn't make the playoffs and whose fans are in boo mode because of that is never going to increase the odds of that guy signing with the team which traded for him as a rental.

[Philsmania]

So he has had 4 drafts and he has no blame for the state of the farm system? Four drafts where the team drafted high and has been among the top 10 clubs spending internationally? I am guessing the vast majority (80%-90%) of the system is his. There were some prospect trades like Sanchez, but the bigger issue is prospect graduations and those top prospects have simply not been replaced as quickly as they graduated.

Based on their progress thus far the additions to the system the last 4 years are below average when compared to the rest of baseball who we are competing with. Top 10 first round picks are supposed to be good prospects (top 100 overall). We just have not produced many top prospects beyond the first round of late.

Exactly. The Phillies had a lot to invest in amateur talent acquisition in terms of high draft picks, high bonus pools and high international spending allocations (which they typically supplemented by trading for other teams' unused amounts). Yet, their return on that sizable investment has been quite meager.

[Philsmania]

And many of us thought that would be an incredibly stupid thing to do. Top FAs tend to go for whomever offers the most $. If the Phillies want Realmuto back, they should sign him now, rather than waiting for next season. I would never trade for an expensive player under the theory that it would make him easier to sign, especially since playing for a team which doesn't make the playoffs and whose fans are in boo mode because of that is never going to increase the odds of that guy signing with the team which traded for him as a rental.

I agree on that. I shake my head when I hear people say that a guy will love it here and re-up if he gets traded here. Yeah, it sort of happened with Cliff Lee but he was the exception. I will not name names but one poster her kept harping on that about Machado last year and that it was a tragic missed opportunity to not get him.

[xogfog]

The Red Sox are just as dysfunctional,

I'm sorry, I couldn't get to the rest of your post after these words. I'd settle for two championships in the last 6 years if that is disfunction...

[zambonir]

You said "a culture of competence which spans generations" about a team which didn't win for 100 years. Yeah, they have won twice - four times, even - and yet they either fire everyone or everyone quits. They have had one generation of sustained success, all from what Theo and Cherington built. It is true the Phillies have no such thing, of course but that being the case a housecleaning might not fix anything either. It never does, if the problem is actually organizational.

And Middleton's money got us things like the Howard contract and signing AJ Burnett, as well as, arguably, the accelerated championship aspirations this year when a wild card was probably the more reasonable goal - for which they sent out lots of players who could have still helped past 2020. I don't think there's any chance Klentak gets fired for simply executing what his owner and boss wanted (since Middleton drove the Harper train and MacPhail is probably the one who refused to sign Corbin). Only way I see him leaving is if they do decide to dump Gabe and he doesn't want to.

[allentown]

Don't blame Middleton's money or his push to spend to win. Those are great assets for the Phillies to have. As a 'large market' team, unlike say the small-market Cardinals(?), who are regularly in the top few in the league in attendance, we don't get extra charity draft picks and we are in the bottom tier of international allocation. A big wad of cash at his disposal is a huge advantage for a GM. How much benefit on the field occurs because of this raw resource advantage is down to the skill of the GM (and a little luck in getting the #1 pick in the right year. That our current GM has made poor use of our available resources is on him.

Looking back, and forward, on our last 4 GMs: The exceptional string of draft signings and the international cheap signing of Ruiz as well as a great Rule V p ick allowed the much-maligned Ed Wade (who worked under severe budget restraints) is responsible for the very strong core of homegrown talent which led to the 2008 championship. He steadfastly held onto our top prospects. If 2007-2011 was a golden age for Phillies baseball on the MLB level, the Wade era was something of a golden age on the farm -- much of it done with non-primo draft picks and not a lot spent internationally. Pat Gillick made in-season trades which pushed us over the top in 2008. RAJ kept adding wins to the team through 2011. Neither Gillick nor Wade were good for the farm. At a time when Middleton was urging a big spend on FA, our current GM has spent a ton of $ on mediocrities -- really on second-tier FA. The press has suggested that Middleton all but held a gun to his head to get him to sign Arrietta and Harper. I think his yield on draft picks/international signings has been less than great, especially on the international side, although the switch to drafting more established college kids with the #1 seems to have improved our drafts. The minor leagues, beneath Reading, don't stand out in quality. Lakewood was especially weak -- it is a young team, but it has done poorly. Klentak has not brought management stability, nor was he quick to get a full organizational philosophy for drafting/development and baseball-side management in place. Just looking at the record, across the whole organization, I don't see evidence for above-average GM performance. Unlike Wade, he traded our top 2 minor league prospects. If he is to be judged on his record to date, has he actually earned a better mark than mediocre?